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Commodities Briefing - Category | Bullion/Gold more

Time for gold to glisten again as a safe haven?

Posted on 08 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As global equity markets tumble, analysts say it could be time for gold to shine once more as a safe buy in times of market turmoil. Spot gold prices rose for a fifth successive day on Thursday, with bullion up about 4 percent since the start of the year. Prices topped $1,100 an ounce for the first time in nine weeks as the dollar fell after concerns over the Chinese economy hit global stocks.
“With equity markets tumbling, escalating tensions between a Saudi-led Sunni bloc against Iran, ongoing hostilities in Syria, North Korea testing what it claims to be a hydrogen bomb, the once precious yellow metal is looking perky,” BBH strategists led by Marc Chandler said in a note on Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Boosted Bullion Holdings in December as Prices Retreated

Posted on 08 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China increased its gold hoard for the sixth straight month in December as prices extended their decline through the end of last year. The central bank boosted reserves to 56.66 million ounces or about 1,762 metric tons from 56.05 million ounces in November, according to the People’s Bank of China.
The country has expanded its stash by 6.3 percent since announcing in July a 57 percent jump since 2009. China is buying gold to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and holds the fifth-biggest tonnage by country. Russia and Kazakhstan are among other nations increasing assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Is Off To A Fast Start In 2016; Charts Look Bullish

Posted on 07 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is batting three-for-three so far in 2016. Prices for the yellow metal have risen each day this week set against a backdrop of global worries, recently up 1.2% to $1,091 an ounce. The recent rise pushed the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) above its so-called 50-day moving average, a pivot point technical analysts view as an indicator of short-term momentum. It’s the first time in about three months that GLD has been above that level.
Gold finished 2015 near a six-year low, as prices plunged 10.7% amid a selloff in commodities and a countdown until the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in nearly a decade, which finally came in December. Gold futures have lost nearly 43% of their value since hitting an all-time high in 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why gold’s mini-revival may be sustained

Posted on 07 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has started 2016 well. By mid-session on Wednesday, the metal was sporting a $28 jump since New Year’s eve, flirting with two-month highs. Crucially, the bullion’s latest strength comes despite the dollar index, with which it often sports an inverse correlation, crawling back towards December’s 12-year high, a function of a crumbling euro.
Chartists will note that gold in December hit a double bottom around $1,050 a troy ounce and has broken above its 50-day moving average. It may be tempting to see gold’s current mini revival as mainly a function of its haven status after North Korea’s bomb test added to the heightened geopolitical tensions from the Saudi/Iran fallout………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold might be the way forward, says UBS

Posted on 07 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

2015 was a volatile year for the stock markets and 2016 opened with a near obliteration of Chinese stocks on the first day back. And for this reason, technical analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Muller at UBS told clients in a research note on Wednesday morning that they should plough into gold (emphasis ours):
Gold has been trading in a cyclical bear market since 2011. In 2016, we expect gold and gold mines moving into an eight-year cycle bottom as the basis for the next multi-year bull market. Initially, we see gold profiting as a safe haven and as of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s Why the Bears Are Wrong on Silver Prices

Posted on 07 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices trended upward after the Chinese stock market crash on Monday triggered a demand for safe-haven investments. Further adding a boost to silver is the mounting geopolitical tension in the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia and its allies have cut political ties with Iran. Meanwhile, the juggernaut between Russia and Syria is adding pressure to NATO partners.
Amid these changing global political and economic circumstances, betting on silver prices is becoming increasingly risky. For a trader, it is all or nothing (mostly nothing!). I prefer to liken it to Russian roulette………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold and silver in 2016: a prediction

Posted on 06 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The surging dollar, prospect of higher interest rates in the US and the slump in commodity prices bore down on precious metals in 2015. While gold prices dropped 10 per cent, silver slid 12 per cent and platinum slumped by a sharp 26 per cent on worries of drop in demand for diesel cars in Europe (after the Volkswagen emission scandal).
Investment demand for all the three precious metals was poor as investors took shelter in bonds. SPDR Gold fund, the largest gold ETF in the world, saw its holdings drop to the lowest in many years. Hard-bitten bullion investors are now thinking twice about betting on precious metals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price enjoys ’safe haven’ bounce, but still trapped

Posted on 06 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Predictions that the gold price would rise in the opening stages of 2016 were borne out in the first session of the year, as the precious metal enjoyed a strong ’safe haven’ bounce.
Spot gold rose more than $20 an ounce at one point, from near its recent multi-year low to above $1,083, before retreating slightly. The price ended the New York session 1.3 per cent higher at $1,075 – and it edged up to around $1,077 in London this morning………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold regains status as safe haven asset again?

Posted on 06 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has finally responded to the falling equity markets rather than the volatility in the dollar at the start of this year, possibly reviving its role a safe haven asset. However, it is early days still and the lack of a more significant rally makes me wonder whether this latest rise will prove to be another ‘dead-cat’ bounce.
Global stock markets have fallen sharply at the start of this year and although Wall Street staged a mini recovery late in the day on Monday, US index futures have turned lower once again, tracking the renewed selling pressure in Europe. No one seems to be too sure why the markets have dropped this viciously………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

Posted on 05 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has a message for the market: You’re a nut if you trust the Fed. In the days since the arbiters of American monetary policy raised interest rates on December 16 — the first rate hike in nearly a decade — gold prices have pretty much gone nowhere. On December 15, the day before the Fed’s announcement, gold closed near $1,065.
As I write this, it’s at $1,070 … and it has seen a high of $1,084 and a low of $1,052. Like I said, it has gone nowhere. Which, if you believe the claptrap that passes for institutional knowledge and learned wisdom on the business news channels, defies preconceptions about the metal………………………………………..Full Article: Source

One analyst predicted 2015 gold price down to the dollar

Posted on 05 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The London Bullion Market Association on Monday announced the winners of its gold price forecast competition for 2015. The survey of 35 analysts had predicted a narrow trading range for gold in 2015, forecasting an average of $1,211 a troy ounce with a range between $1,085 to $1,356 over the course of the year.
That proved too optimistic with gold averaging $1,160 in 2015. The winner of the 2015 competition, Bernard Dahdah of French investment bank Natixis, got it exactly right with a forecast of an average $1,160 for the year. Dahdah’s range was fairly wide, predicting a low of $950 and a high of $1,400………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investors Go for Gold as Market Tumbles

Posted on 05 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold started 2016 on a bright note. Investors seeking safety from the tumbling stock market and rising tensions in the Mideast are buying beaten-up exchange-traded funds that track the price of gold and the miners that dig it out of the ground.
The nearly $22 billion SPDR Gold Trust , or GLD, and was up 1.2% while the S&P 500 fell 2.2%. Even gold producers, some of last year’s most troubled companies as gold prices fell for a third straight year, rose on Monday. The $4.3 billion Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF added 1.5% on the heels of five years of declines, 2015’s topping 25%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

2016 Looks Like Another Bad Year for Gold

Posted on 04 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Largely influenced by U.S. monetary policy and dollar flows, the price of gold has fallen about 10% in 2015 as some investors sold the precious metal to buy assets that pay a yield, such as equities. “The key factor for gold remains the strong dollar and that ultimately trumps all other issues including the economy and the geopolitics,” said Ross Norman, chief executive of bullion broker Sharps Pixley.
The dollar was on track for a 9% gain this year against a basket of major currencies, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Other precious metals have also been hit by dollar strength and the gold slump, and were headed for sharp annual declines………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices fall for a third year in a row

Posted on 04 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices a bit higher on Thursday, ending the year down 10 per cent for its third straight annual decline. The metal also faces another potentially challenging year in 2016 amid the prospect of higher US interest rates and a robust dollar.
Largely influenced by US monetary policy and dollar flows, the price of gold fell 10 per cent in 2015 as some investors sold the precious metal to buy assets that pay a yield, such as equities. US gold futures for February delivery settled at $US1,060.2 per ounce on Thursday, slightly up from Wednesday and close to six-year lows of $US1,046 per ounce earlier in December………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Volumes Shrink on Steady Prices as Traders Look to 2016

Posted on 30 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold trading volumes shrunk in New York and prices were little changed as traders shifted their focus to the outlook for 2016. Aggregate volume for gold futures has been below the 30-day average since mid-December, when the Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
Prices had already been heading for a third straight annual loss on the outlook for higher rates, which cut the appeal of the metal as a store of value. While the metal briefly rallied amid the Paris attacks, investors have mostly ignored bullion this year as the dollar climbed. Now, traders are focusing on how quickly Fed policy makers will continue to raise rates in 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold’s three-year losing streak shows no signs of ending

Posted on 30 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With gold prices down roughly 10 per cent this year, the precious metal is on track to record its third-straight annual loss, the first time it has posted a triple-loss streak since 1998. Gold prices rose modestly Tuesday, with the December delivery contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange up 0.65 per cent to US$1,077.50 an ounce.
But the precious metal has spent much of the year on a downward trajectory, as a surging U.S. dollar and a rate hike by the Federal Reserve sent investors fleeing. James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC Securities, notes that gold prices have been resilient since the rate hike, but gold faces a lot of bearish sentiment right now………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold and Silver Forecast 2016

Posted on 30 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Forecasting today’s volatile, high-frequency machine driven and manipulated futures markets using fundamental analysis is futile, as a great many precious metals bulls will attest. To complicate matters, an obsession with Fed policy dominates all markets. Officials at the Federal Reserve are often less than forthcoming and are just as bumbling as the Soviet bureaucrats when it comes to centrally planning our economy.
Nevertheless, beneath all of the artificial influences and all of the leveraged paper, the gears of the physical market for gold and silver still turn. We can be sure prices will reflect actual supply and demand for physical metals at some point, even if we do not know when. With that in mind, here is a look ahead to 2016………………………………………….Full Article: Source

Will Gold Come Back In 2016?

Posted on 29 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As of Thursday, December 24, the price of gold is down more than $100 per ounce in 2016. Gold peaked at just over $1300 in the first month of the year. Since then, the price has made lower highs and lower lows throughout the year, disappointing those who believe that gold is the ultimate currency, real money and the only hard asset that really is a true store of value in the world.
Gold outdates all fiat currencies in existence today. In the wake of the financial crisis that swept across the globe in 2008, interest rates have moved to the lowest levels of our lifetimes. Although the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time in nine years this month, they were at zero before the action………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold: What Really Drives Prices?

Posted on 29 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What stops a trend? There are a litany of answers that can fill in here, and many of them are ‘right’ to some degree or have at least some pertinence, but if you really get down to brass tacks – what is it that kills a trend? At it’s core, all trends stop (and all prices are driven) for two very simple but related reasons: New buyers/sellers or a lack thereof. That’s really it.
Much of financial media is focused on the inputs compelling those forces, but in it’s most simplistic form – price action is really just driven by sentiment. It’s the reasons driving that sentiment that has the world transfixed on the news. If something really bad happens, a bunch of new sellers will often want to jump in the market and this can drive prices lower………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices to hit new lows

Posted on 28 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The downtrend in gold will continue in the first part of 2016 because of higher interest rates in the United States and stronger dollar, analysts have said. Carsten Menke, commodities research analyst at Julius Baer, said that the precious metal is expected to remain “out of favour” among investors next year.
“Gold prices are in a longer-term downtrend that is driven by fading investment demand. Given the outlook for sound growth, higher interest rates and muted inflation, gold should remain out of favour among investors also next year and the downtrend should continue,” Menke told Gulf News………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold forecasts bearish outcomes for year 2016

Posted on 28 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The dollar-dominated yellow metal is on its way to represent another bearish year like this one. Gold costs hiked earlier 2015 with an estimate of US$ 1,305 as safe haven flows enhanced the metal after when Swiss National Bank (SNB) unpegged Swiss franc versus Euro.
Gold cost dropped off due to several reasons amid which ones are The Federal Reserve’s recent projection to lift rates, geopolitical events in the past years which liberated it as a whole single entity, the monetary policy aimed to less complicate interest rates at record lows for major central banks, and moreover, a drop down in Energy cost range had put in a lot of negative impact on Gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price: why it could go below $1,000 – or above $1,100

Posted on 28 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price continues to defy gravity. Received wisdom has it that gold falls in price when interest rates rise – and this cycle was set in motion by the Federal Reserve’s raising of interest rates last week. Higher rates boost income-generating alternatives and tend to spur the dollar, against which gold is a hedge.
But gold has not followed the script. It did slump the day after the Fed’s decision last Thursday, hitting a new six-year low of around $1,050, but it has since been gradually rising and was this morning trading at around $1,080 an ounce. The question now is where it goes from here………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indian gold investors cashed out in 2015

Posted on 28 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The year 2015 was a washout year for commodities, but precious metals weathered it with less damage. Gold prices dropped by about 9 per cent in the international market. In the domestic market, investors who bet on gold suffered a loss of 7 per cent.
This being the third straight year of losses on gold investments, many investors cashed out. The total holding of all gold-backed exchange traded funds in India dropped to 25 tonnes — a three-year low. Goldman Sachs gold ETF, the largest gold-backed exchange traded fund in India, holds about 678 kg of gold, a decline of about 12 per cent from last year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Won’t Take Gold in Metals Race

Posted on 21 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Which metal has the most mettle? While they are all looking awfully brittle these days, the surprising answer is gold. In the past year and a half, the traditional store of value has lost a mere 16%—a smaller decline than seven other widely traded metals. Iron ore, for instance, is down 57%.
The reason that is odd is gold’s appeal, or lack thereof, in the current financial environment. When interest rates were zero, the opportunity cost of owning an unproductive lump of yellow stuff was low since returns on cash were minuscule………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold’s Wild Ride Leaves Best Forecasters Siding With Fund Bears

Posted on 21 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Janet Yellen sent gold prices on a roller-coaster ride. Now, hedge funds and the metal’s best forecasters are predicting there’s only one way prices are heading next: down. The Federal Reserve Chair on Wednesday raised U.S. interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, sending bullion prices swinging and driving the metal’s 30-day volatility to a six-week high.
While traders couldn’t decide on a direction for gold, Robin Bhar and Barnabas Gan, the most accurate forecasters, are convinced futures will keep falling in 2016. Money managers agree, raising their net-short position to the highest ever………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Chinese Gold Market Essentials Guide

Posted on 21 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The unique structure of the Chinese domestic gold market, the SGE system, and why the amount of physical gold withdrawn from the vaults of the SGE (published on a weekly basis) can be used as a measure for Chinese wholesale gold demand is explained in part one: The Mechanics Of The Chinese Domestic Gold Market.
It also provides a basic understanding of contrasting metrics applied to measure Chinese gold demand, and the difference between SGE withdrawals and Chinese consumer gold demand as disclosed by the World Gold Council, which has aggregated to at least 2,500 tonnes from 2007 until 2015. For whatever reason, the World Gold Council and its affiliates continuously present feeble arguments that should explain the difference. The Chinese Gold Market Essentials debunk these arguments where necessary, back up by facts, and reveal genuine Chinese gold demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Where is the price of gold heading in 2016?

Posted on 18 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The much heralded and anticipated interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve for the first time in nearly 10 years materialized on Wednesday. In electronic trading following the release of the Fed’s statement, gold prices fell from the settlement. As of Wednesday, the most active gold contract had fallen by 9 percent since the end of 2014, indicating the precious metal settlement will very likely log a third consecutive year of losses.
Heading into 2016, is gold going to bounce back from its multi-year lows as traders ceased to speculate about when the hikes would begin? Many investment banks’ predictions for 2016 suggest another tough year for gold amid low inflation and higher interest rates in the United States………………………………………..Full Article: Source

After a three-year lull, gold set to regain lustre

Posted on 18 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has lost its mojo over the last three years, losing about half its value since 2012. But action in the yellow metal is set to return. Trouble is brewing for gold bears. The metal is already up by about 2 per cent from its six-year low of $1,046/ounce recorded in early-December.
On Thursday, after the news of the Fed rate hike, gold dropped just 0.3 per cent. Gold may not deliver double-digit returns, but surely 2016 will be a better year than 2015. The US Federal Reserve on Thursday increased the short-term rate by 25 basis points, taking it up from a near-zero level since 2009………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China plans yuan gold pricing, India eyeing exchange – World Gold Council

Posted on 18 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to introduce a yuan-denominated gold pricing mechanism to facilitate regional market trading and the Indian gold trade is expressing an intent to establish a gold exchange.
The World Gold Council market intelligence head Alistair Hewitt predicts in a media release to Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly Online that the gold market will continue to improve in 2016 on the back of pro-gold Indian government schemes, further internationalisation of the renminbi and the increasing transparency of Chinese gold reserves. He expects yuan gold pricing to take shape in 2016, when he foresees gold continuing to provide a hedge against elevated stock valuations………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What will happen to the gold market in 2016?

Posted on 18 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What effect will the Fed’s decision have on the gold market over the next year? It is our view that the effect of the Fed announcement on the price of gold will be limited, as it has already been priced in. After all, the market has been anticipating this increase for almost a year and a half.
It is more important to understand that more than 90 per centof gold demand comes from outside the US, primarily the Asian economies – particularly China and India. In these economies local price matters most. So whilst the US dollar price is one driver of the gold price it, is not always the most relevant factor………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The good, bad and ugly: Gold review of 2015 and outlook for 2016

Posted on 17 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“2015 has been a fascinating year for the gold market, with strong demand from central banks, Asian markets and the European bar and coin market,” said Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence for the World Gold Council.
“The pro-gold schemes introduced by the Indian government and the further internationalization of the renminbi alongside the increasing transparency of Chinese gold reserves will continue to improve the market next year. Gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier, a wealth preservation tool and a tail risk hedge will continue to prevail due to expensive stock valuations and high liquidity risks. Finally gold’s cultural significance endures as we look ahead to 2016.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold price: Why it might fall or rise after Fed

Posted on 17 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price has been difficult to predict of late. It rallied hard at the beginning of the month on the back of a strong jobs report which suggested an interest rates rise was likely. Gold is not meant to enjoy rates rises, which boost income-generating assets.
It has also broadly tracked equity markets for long periods rather than acting as a ’safe haven’ as it should – and recently it has been shifting lower or higher just when it appears an opposing trend is set in………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why is the price of gold rising?

Posted on 17 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The price of gold has now moved to well over $1000 which is an all-time high for the precious metal. It would appear that various factors have come into play to push the gold price to these levels, which is a culmination of an upward trend which has now lasted a total of eight years. So what exactly is pushing the price of gold higher and higher?
A general weakness in the US dollar is seen by many experts as one reason why the price of gold continues to rise, with those who would traditionally have invested in the greenback now investing in gold as a hedge against the currency rate in the future………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fed rate hike expected to bury gold deeper after brief rally

Posted on 16 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Experts are predicting that gold prices will see a brief rally at the turn of the year, followed by more gloom for the metal, if the U.S. Federal Reserve lifts interest rates for the first time in nine years on Dec. 16.
But speakers at the 10th Annual China Gold Conference in Shanghai last week were divided over whether the precious metal has found its bottom, with some suggesting it could start posting a more sustained price rise………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold to breach $1 000 as Fed lifts rates in ‘16 – SocGen

Posted on 16 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is going to be a casualty of the Federal Reserve, according to Societe Generale. Bullion will probably drop to $955 an ounce by the end of 2016 as the US central bank raises borrowing costs this week and follows that with three further hikes next year, head of global asset allocation Alain Bokobza said in an interview. The target suggests prices may sink about 10% to the lowest since September 2009.
Gold is heading for a third annual loss as US policymakers prepare to raise rates for the first time in almost a decade, boosting the dollar and cutting the appeal of bullion. Traders are pricing in a 76% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will raise borrowing costs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold investors sold the rumor of higher U.S. rates - will they buy the fact?

Posted on 16 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bulls hoping an anticipated rise in U.S. interest rates will paradoxically boost the metal’s price might just be disappointed, as the wider environment offers little to justify a rebound. Gold has fallen 10 percent so far in 2015, hitting its lowest in nearly six years largely on speculation that monetary policy will tighten.
In theory, higher interest rates weigh on bullion by lifting the opportunity cost of holding such a non-yielding asset. While expectations of a rate rise have driven selling, some bulls say it is so well priced into gold that the reality of any slow and gradual rise from record lows after this week’s forecast increase could reinvigorate investment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold/Silver Ratio Jumps Near 6-Year High

Posted on 15 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Silver prices hit new 6-year lows in London trade Monday, dropping to $13.65 per ounce and falling near 2009 lows against steadier gold prices as industrial commodities sank and Western stock markets fell again ahead of this week’s decision on Dollar interest rates from the US Federal Reserve.
With gold bullion trading above $1070 per ounce mid-afternoon, the Gold/Silver Ratio of relative prices rose above 77.7 – a multi-decade high when seen during the oil price crash of the mid-1980s. “The aftermath [of the Fed's rate hike] has already begun,” says a credit markets note from French investment and bullion bank Natixis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price set for rise and fall on rate hike

Posted on 15 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price is fluctuating ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later this week, but has dipped below the lower threshold of its recent range. Having risen initially in Asian trading overnight to as high as $1,076 an ounce, spot gold fell several dollars to around where it had begun the day, then dropped again in the first few hours in London this morning, to around $1,068.
The price has been rooted within a range between $1,070 and $1,080 ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve interest rates vote………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hong Kong gold pricing continues despite legal misgivings

Posted on 15 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hong Kong industry bodies that set daily gold price recommendations for jewellery retailers continued as normal yesterday despite a landmark competition law taking effect that frowns upon such practices. Under the city’s new Competition Ordinance, any move to set prices for retailers is deemed to be price fixing. Offenders are subject to a penalty of as much as 10 per cent of Hong Kong turnover for each year of the infringement if found guilty.
Lau Hak-bun, president of the Kowloon Pearls, Precious Stones, Jade, Gold and Silver Ornament Merchants Association, told the Post it was not viable to ditch the 50-year industry-wide practice because the price recommendations were meant to give its more than 600 members a reference. Members did not have to follow the recommendations………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will the Gold Price Hit $1,000?

Posted on 14 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Some believe the yellow metal may hit $1,000 per ounce if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. The gold price has stayed fairly steady this week, trading between $1,068.60 and $1,082.30 per ounce. It peaked above the $1,080 level on Wednesday, and since then has declined — as of 4:00 p.m. EST Thursday it was trading at $1.071.70.
In terms of what’s been keeping the gold price level, MarketWatch states that its gains earlier this week came on the back of “recent weakness in the dollar compared with the euro.” The euro’s positive performance dates back to last week, when the European Central Bank cut its deposit facility to -0.3 percent from -0.2 percent, leaving its main refinancing rate steady at 0.05………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold braced for Fed rate hike

Posted on 14 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has been lost for direction in recent weeks, moving sideways in the range of $1,060-1,080/ounce. Last week, it ended at $1,074/ounce, down 1.1 per cent. But the action may now begin. The Fed may be all set to bite the bullet. In its meeting on December 16, expectation is that the central bank may increase rates by about 25 basis points for the first time in seven years.
The action would be supported by strong US data. US unemployment rate has come down to 5 per cent from about 9.5 per cent in 2009. The increase in average hourly wages paid to workers is at 2.3 per cent (annualised) compared to 2-2.1 per cent for very long. Inflation is at 0.2 per cent, but core inflation excluding fuel and food is 1.3 per cent, closer to Fed’s 2 per cent target………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold to remain volatile as Fed meeting looms

Posted on 14 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the next couple of weeks on the US Fed’s imminent interest rate hike scheduled to be announced on Wednesday. Gold price, being inversely proportional to the economic growth, is set to move in the range of $100 until the first week of January 2016. Trade sources anticipate two kinds of scenarios emerging for gold price movement.
First, in case US Fed raises interest by 25-50 basis points, gold price would initially decline as a knee-jerk reaction. But, some trades might see this as an opportunity for entering in the gold space for longer -term prospects. So, gold price may recover later………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Five key reasons why gold prices are falling

Posted on 11 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Globally, the yellow metal has already lost 9 percent of its value this year and is on track for its third year of losses. The metal slid to USD 1,045.85, its lowest since February 2010, last week, when the dollar spiked to its highest level in 12-1/2 years following Fed chair Janet Yellen`s hint at a US rate rise this month.
US central bank is expected to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade at its next policy meeting on Dec. 15-16. Higher rates should dent demand for non-interest-paying gold, which has already lost 9 percent of its value this year and is on track for its third year of losses………………………………………..Full Article: Source

What will trigger gold to fall ‘drastically’

Posted on 11 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold will continue to feel more pain over the next few days and may even fall “drastically” should investors see indications that there will be frequent interest rate increases in the US, an industry source told Gulf News. Retail gold prices in Dubai moved a bit higher on Thursday morning, but the bullion remained under pressure as the Fed meeting inches closer.
Early trade saw 24-carat rise 50 fils to Dh129.50 from a day earlier. The latest price is still way below the peak level achieved in October, paving the way for buyers to continue scoring some bargains. Dubai’s jewellery shops were retailing 22K at Dh122.75, while 21K and 18K traded at Dh117.25 and Dh100.75, respectively………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goldman Sachs retains gold outlook; sees risk of oil price declines

Posted on 10 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Investment Bank Goldman Sachs says “we maintain our $1,000 per ounce gold price forecast over the next 12 months”. The bank says, “over the next 12 months we forecast (palladium) prices to move up to $750 per ounce, though the risks to this forecast are also skewed to the downside”
“Palladium has fallen sharply over recent weeks on weak Chinese automotive output,” it said. GS sees more downside risk to its copper price forecasts. “We see the risks surrounding our 3/6/12-months copper price forecasts of $4,800 per tonne, $4,800 per tonne and $4,500 per tonne, respectively, as skewed to the downside.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Market Becoming `Dull’ as Investors Factor in Higher Rates

Posted on 10 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s price swings are running out of steam as investors factor in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. After jumping the most since August on Dec. 4 and then sliding 0.8 percent on Monday, bullion futures gained 0.1 percent on Tuesday.
The metal touched a five-year low last week on expectations that the Fed will soon raise borrowing costs, curbing demand for assets that don’t pay interest. There’s an 78 percent chance that policy makers will raise rates at their Dec. 15-16 meeting, Fed-funds futures show and Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the pace of increases will be gradual. Holdings in bullion-backed funds snapped the longest run of declines since March………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price: Why it is defying trends

Posted on 09 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The gold price fell back on Monday after a sharp rally at the end of last week, keeping it only modestly above a recent multi-year low. It was a relatively rare example in recent sessions of the asset behaving as the market expects.
The bounce on Friday, for instance, came after a stronger-than-expected jobs report that convinced most traders the Federal Reserve will now increase interest rates in a little over a week’s time. Non-yielding gold tends to fall when rates rise, as it becomes comparatively unattractive next to income-generating assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold To Benefit In 2016, ‘The Year Of Fear’ — Axel Merk

Posted on 09 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One fund manager is expecting 2016 to be the year of fear. And as the Federal Reserve looks to raise interest rates, the place investors will want to be is gold, he said. In his 2016 outlook, Axel Merk, president & CIO of Merk Investments, warned that the “risk premia” in financial markets is starting to shift as the Federal Reserve tries to engineer an exit strategy from its years of ultra-loose monetary policy.
He explained that the shifting risk environment and reduced liquidity will lead to more volatility and that could be disastrous for complacent investors who have been chasing gains in equity and bond markets. “Complacently is going to lead to fear,” he said in an interview with Kitco News on Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullion demand won’t break

Posted on 09 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Despite gold at near six year lows, global demand for physical bullion remains very high. This is clearly seen in the recent demand data from the U.S. Mint and other mints. It is also seen in demand data from GFMS and the World Gold Council which shows very robust demand from Germany, India and of course, China.
There is also the very high official demand from central banks and, in particular, the Russian central bank and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Today came news that China’s gold reserves rose by another 21 tonnes in November, the biggest bout of gold buying since China began disclosing monthly data on China’s gold reserves in June……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Where the Gold Price Is Headed Next

Posted on 08 December 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The past week has to be one of the most volatile yet surprising, both up and down, in a while for gold – so where is the gold price headed next? On Black Friday, gold took a beating to become one of the best “sale items” on offer, as it hit $1,055.90 per ounce and the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) closed above the 100 mark.
Then by Monday, Nov. 30, gold had risen to close at $1,064.50 in New York trading on a stronger dollar. On Dec. 1, it was mostly unchanged, bouncing between $1,065 and $1,070………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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