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Commodities Briefing - Category | Bullion/Gold more

Gold price edges up but mood could turn

Posted on 02 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold is marginally higher this morning but remains rooted within a narrow range. According to one analyst, the metal is vulnerable to a fresh wave of selling from funds poised to increase bearish bets. Having risen slightly on the latest Asian market declines, which the Wall Street Journal claims have boosted gold’s “safe haven appeal”, gold continued its gradual positive trend in European trading and was up around $6 an ounce to $1,141.
This is still around two per cent off a recent high reached a little over a week ago and, the Journal notes, below the symbolically important $1,150 support level at which rallies have run out of steam of late………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India: Gold demand to surge by 70% during festive season

Posted on 02 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold demand during the festive season of Dhanteras, Dusshera and Diwali will surge by up to 70 per cent despite a rise in price of the yellow metal, according to gold jewellers and traders. The price of gold is expected to go up by almost Rs 2,000 per 10 grams during the season.
“The festive season is approaching, a season where people give gold items as gifts to each other. So the demand of gold is expected to grow by 65 to 70 per cent till the end of November,” Mr. Shashank Goyal, founder of SLG Jewellers told The Hindu. According to experts, the price of gold is expected to increase to Rs 28,500 per 10 grams by the end of October. It stands at Around Rs 26,700 at the moment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold forecast to drop to $800 an ounce in 2016

Posted on 02 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The overall sentiment towards the yellow metal will turn increasingly bearish next year and the prices are likely to hit below $1,000 by March, analysts have said. According to ABN Amro’s forecasts, the price of the bullion will trade hands at $1,000 an ounce by December this year. Prices will fall further in the coming year, with the rate hitting as low as $800 by December 2016.
The forecasts were contained in the Dutch bank’s research note issued last week which also highlighted ABN Amro’s position that the precious metal’s safe-haven status has been reduced significantly. As of Tuesday morning, spot gold stood at $1,141 an ounce, up slightly by 0.6 per cent on weak equities and US dollar………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold would be $1,450 if it followed oil price gains of the past three days

Posted on 02 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The spotlight has been on the oil price over the past three trading days with a spectacular bounce of 27 per cent. Apply the same gain to the gold price and we would be looking at $1,450 an ounce. Experts are uncertain exactly why the oil price has rallied. There have been no fundamental changes to the oversupply or demand. If anything the economic data out of China points to weaker demand.
Commodities oversold? Markets do become oversold. Gold is another case to consider. Physical demand has picked up strongly since the Chinese equity crash while future supply is threatened by the low price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver Price Set To Start 70s Style Rally?

Posted on 02 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In terms of gold, silver is currently better value than at the beginning of the bull market in 2001. In November of 2001, when silver bottomed, the Gold/Silver ratio was about 66 compared to 78 today. In other words, gold has actually outperformed silver since the beginning of this precious metals bull market.
It is actually the historical norm for gold to outperform silver for most part of a bull market, except for the very last part. For example, this happened in the 70s, when gold was up on silver from the beginning of the bull market (let’s say about 1971) until almost the very end (about October 1979). So, during an almost ten-year bull market, silver only overtook gold about three months before the end………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold regains shine in August amid market turmoil

Posted on 01 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has had its best month in seven. The yellow metal rose 3.6 per cent to $1,134.93 an ounce in August — its best month since January, when it jumped 8.4 per cent. Gold’s lacklustre performance for much of the year (even through the crisis in Greece and Ukraine) prompted chatter that it was losing its safe haven appeal, as the market increasingly focused on the looming rate rise from the Federal Reserve.
As an asset which offers no yield, gold came under pressure amid speculation that a rate rise would push investors to higher yielding assets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Prices May Move Higher in September Says U.S. Global CEO

Posted on 01 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As markets gear up for September, U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes said he expects to see a boost for gold in September. ‘Historically, when football season starts in September, gold is up,’ he said in an interview with Kitco News. He added that opportunities may present themselves in the gold space and in the mining sector.
Commenting on the announcement of billionaire investor Carl Icahn’s 8.5 percent stake in mining giant Freeport-McMoRan, Holmes said that more ‘activist investing’ may take place in the sector. ‘I think it’s very significant when you look at the sheer size and change in that [Freeport] stock price from its lows,’ he highlighted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why gold mine output is not yet falling

Posted on 01 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Logic suggests there should be a sharp reduction in mined gold output due to lower gold prices, but this has not been the case. The fall in the gold price over the past few years has generated numerous predictions that this would lead to a big drop in global gold production. Mining companies ought to close unprofitable mines, halt expansion plans, and put new projects on hold.
But this has not been the case. Global gold production has continued to rise and is predicted by mainstream gold analysts Metals Focus, GFMS, and the CPM Group, to continue to do so this year. Heading into 2016, it should stabilise before beginning to fall in 2017, failing a gold price recovery………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Are Depressed Gold Prices an Opportunity in Gold Stocks?

Posted on 01 September 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The volatile trading over the past two weeks claimed many victims, but perhaps the most surprising of which was gold. In theory, gold prices should rise in times of fear and uncertainty, as gold is long considered an unofficial barometer of economic health. And the current dynamics are chock full of fear and uncertainty.
Yet the traditional safe-haven asset was cut down last week, losing 2% of value since Aug. 24 and causing gold stocks and gold miners to tumble as well. The precious metals selloff couldn’t have come at a worse time. Prior to the recent series of red ink, gold prices skyrocketed nearly 7% for the month of August — on pace for the best monthly performance in years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price likely to average $1,025 an ounce this year

Posted on 31 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s retail prices in Dubai continued to hold steady on Sunday although analysts are expecting the bullion to resume its weakness following the recovery of the global stock markets. Overall, there are still some bargains to be had for gold bugs in Dubai, with Sunday’s retail prices still lower compared to almost a week ago, when the yellow metal was retailing at Dh140 per gram for 24K.
As the US dollar picked up strength on Friday, the UAE dirham continued to rise against other currencies, with the Indian rupee pegged at 18.01 per dirham and Philippine peso at 12.7 on Sunday, slightly higher than Thursday’s exchange rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold may rise after Fed rate hike

Posted on 31 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices plummeted again this week, closing at $1133.6/ounce, down 2.3 per cent. Data on Thursday showed that the US recorded a robust 3.7 per cent growth in GDP in the second quarter, higher than the estimate of 2.3 per cent. Silver and platinum too closed in the red at $14.5/ounce and $1,018/ounce respectively.
Strong US data has revived expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve may ignore problems in China and go ahead with a rate hike at its upcoming meeting in September. Given that gold is a non-interest bearing asset, the belief is that it will lose out in a rising rate environment, the reason why the metal was beaten down last week. BusinessLine evaluated the behaviour of gold prices after previous Fed rate hikes to find out if it works in practice………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Bulls Pile In Just Before Bullion Loses Its Job as a Haven

Posted on 31 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bulls piled into the metal in hopes that the turmoil sweeping financial markets would finally help revive prices. They were wrong. Instead of a rally, futures in New York fell for four straight sessions even as global equities plunged to a two-year low. Rather than providing a refuge from the meltdown, gold’s volatility rose right along with a measure of equity turbulence, diminishing its appeal as a haven.
As stocks started to recover, the metal kept falling because of reports that signaled gains for the U.S. economy. It’s been a tough two years for investors in gold, which first fell into a bear market in April 2013. More than $52 billion has been wiped from the value of physical bullion funds since then. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Standard Marks Its Unlikeliest Return With Islamic State

Posted on 31 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The terrorist group known as ‘Islamic State’ claims to have launched a precious metals-based ‘currency’ and oil-for-gold trading practices in order to undermine the dollar’s dominance in international trade. Kristian Rouz — In yet another attempt to behave as if they were the government of a nation, the notorious terrorist group Islamic State has just reintroduced a warped version of the gold standard the way it existed a century ago.
With the announced ‘return of the gold dinar’, Islamic State seemingly hopes to provide substantial support to their black-market oil-based economy. Whilst the new ‘currency’ will hardy gain international convertibility, the move might have significant consequences for the global economy, one of them being larger and less predictable fluctuations in gold prices, as the scale of black market operations with precious metals is inevitably poised to grow………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price: is the rally ‘over and done’?

Posted on 28 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has recovered slightly after hitting a one-week low overnight as expectations of a US rate hike in September were lowered – but after a sharp decline some analysts are now saying the recent rally is “over”.
As US stocks surged on the back of a huge injection of stimulus by Chinese authorities to support its ailing markets, the safe haven of gold lost out to a move by investors to take on more risk and touched a low of $1,117 an ounce at one point. This, Reuters notes [1], was its lowest level for a week and marked a 1.3 per cent decline for the day, the steepest fall since 20 July………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Prices Fall on Robust U.S. GDP Data

Posted on 28 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices fell on Thursday as gains in U.S. equities on the back of upbeat economic data and a stronger dollar dulled trader interest in haven assets. Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, fell $2, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,122.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
A rally in U.S. stocks triggered by brighter economic data pushed gold to its fourth straight day of losses as investors revisited their expectations for higher interest rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is gold back to being a safe haven?

Posted on 28 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices have increased in August, recovering from a lacklustre performance over the last few years, after market volatility ramped up. While gold hasn’t been rising in tough periods as many investors would expect, it does appear that investors have been buying into the commodity this month, following a positive 3.35 per cent return from the S&P GSCI Gold Spot index.
The obvious guess as to why this is the case is the global volatility we have experienced in recent months. This came to a head on Monday, when the FTSE 100 had £74bn wiped off its value, the Dow Jones ended the day down 558 points and the Shanghai Composite dropped by 8.5 per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Difference in London Gold Price AM and spot gold rate costs ‘unhedged’ bullion dealers

Posted on 27 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For over a century, gold rates have been set twice daily — at 10:30 am and 3 pm — in London on the basis of which the metal is valued and traded throughout the world. On Tuesday, after the customary morning rate was set eyebrows were raised among a few bullion dealers at home and reportedly by some abroad.
The so-called London Gold Price AM which traders in India get to know at 3 PM, was $4.48 higher than the spot gold rate. This, according to the bullion dealers, resulted in losses for those who without hedging themselves made a delivery commitment to clients based on the lower spot rate, but had to pick up the gold by paying almost $5 more, based on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) morning rate………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why gold was the best buy in 2008-9 crash and will be this time too

Posted on 27 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

What was the best asset class to buy for the recovery that followed the 2008-9 crash in global financial markets? Step forward gold whose rise was only exceeded by silver. Precious metals not only delivered the fastest recovery from that huge sell-off but offered increases way above the pre-crash levels.
Gold tripled from its low in the crash, while silver went on to record an eight-fold increase, still just shy of its 1980 all-time high. It is not hard to see history repeating itself all over again. Just look at the Chinese central bank this week cutting interest rates, just like the Fed had to do in 2008-9………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Gets Ignored Amid Market Turmoil as Focus Stays on Fed

Posted on 27 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This week’s turmoil across global markets did little to bring people back to gold as investors ignored the metal’s haven appeal and focused, instead, on the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates.
Futures in New York fell for a third straight day, the longest stretch this month, even as global growth concerns spurred the biggest global equity rout in four years. Citigroup Inc. cut estimates for gold, silver and other metals, and investors pulled money from exchange-traded products backed by bullion for the first time in five days………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price steady around $1,150/oz, dollar recovers

Posted on 26 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold traded sideways on Tuesday morning after European stocks opened higher and the dollar recovered slightly despite Chinese equities extending losses. The spot gold price was last at $1,150.90/1,151.20 per ounce, little changed from the previous close. Trade has ranged narrowly from $1,146 to $1,156.90 so far.
The yellow metal peaked at its highest in seven weeks on Monday at $1,170 amid a global sell-off in equity markets that was triggered by renewed fears about the slowing Chinese economy. “Gold should continue to hold its value during the current market turbulence, however a material surge higher is unlikely as participants find liquidity by selling all asset classes, including precious metals,” MKS said in a note………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Outlook – Not a Safe Haven Anymore?

Posted on 26 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold rallied from the July lows of $1077 to test the $1167 level. Gold is believed to be a safe haven where investors put their money during periods of economic uncertainty. During the last economic recession, gold price rallied to over $1920. Unfortunately, this level has been the highest price since 2011.
The introduction of Quantitative Easing by the FED in order to stimulate the economy has eventually put gold in a bear market. The market is anticipating a rate hike from the FED as early as September. This is bad news for gold bulls because it will have a negative impact on the price of gold. This means that gold prices are more likely to go lower than we saw in July………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Wary investors seek other havens over gold amid China market rout

Posted on 26 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold has failed to rally in the face of China’s stock market crisis as investors, scorched by a brutal end to the market’s 12-year bull run, chose cash and bonds for safety over bullion while they seek clarity on the timing of a U.S. rate increase. While at first glance, the failure of a “haven” asset to respond may seem odd, this behaviour is by no means unusual.
As a broad rule, bullion tends to benefit from stock market weakness as an alternative asset, but previous equity crashes show the initial price response can be to fall. “In 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, we saw a two-week decline in gold prices, despite having a perfect storm for gold,” LBBW analyst Thorsten Proettel said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Market Rout Hasn’t Done Much for Gold

Posted on 26 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The rout in global equity markets has only managed to underpin gold, as resistance at $1,170 to $1,172 has kept a lid on the market. Even news that Belarus has added to reserves has done little to encourage fresh length as this is just the fourth day of a short-covering rally.
It seems no one is ready to add risk before Labor Day and the mentality of “throwing the baby out with the bath water” may keep some gold bugs sidelined, but I still believe the global uncertainty will support any selloff. If we break $1,172, I would think that one-month $1,200 calls are worth a cheap bet. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Are Silver Prices About to Hit $64?

Posted on 26 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We have said many times that the outlook for silver is bright. The grey metal, unlike gold, is not only an investment vehicle, but also an industrial metal that has growing demand from electronics manufacturers and solar panel producers. This time, let’s look at one of the most important ratios in precious metals—the gold to silver price ratio.
You see, for the most part, precious metals prices move in the same manner: when gold goes up, so does silver, and vice versa. However, despite going in the same directions, the magnitude of the moves in gold and silver prices could differ. We use the gold to silver price ratio to track the divergence of the two metals prices. As you can see from the chart below, the ratio has been rising steadily since 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price falls despite haven status

Posted on 25 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices have slipped as sharp declines in stocks forced some investors to sell profitable gold wagers to meet loan losses. The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, fell $US6, or 0.5 per cent, to settle at $US1,153.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold rallied to a seven-week high on Friday as some investors wagered that the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates in response to deteriorating economic conditions in China. Fed officials have said that despite progress in labor and property markets, the US economic rebound doesn’t yet warrant higher rates………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold to hit $1,200?

Posted on 25 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold hovered near its highest level in almost seven weeks on Monday as worries over a slowing Chinese economy pushed investors away from risky assets and into those deemed as safe haven.
Asian equities tumbled, the US dollar retreated and industrial commodities from copper to oil slid to their weakest since 2009. Spot gold was little changed at $1,160.80 an ounce by 0236 GMT (6.36am UAE time), after touching a high of $1,165.11 in early deals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Can Gold Rally to $1,300?

Posted on 25 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Precious metal has advanced amid a plunge in commodity prices to 16-year lows, with RBC saying seasonal buying may offer a near-term boost. We have made significant changes to both our short and long term gold and silver price assumptions pulling back our average H2/15 gold price from US$1,288/oz to US$1,125/oz and have reduced our 2016 to 2017 gold price by 7% to 8%.
We have also pulled back our long term gold price by 7% from US$1,400/oz to US$1,300/oz from 2018 onward and we expect a combination of persistent US$ strength and weaker investment to limit the upside prices well below prior high trading ranges………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Looking for a safe haven? Here’s why gold won’t work

Posted on 25 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

You hear it again and again. When markets get volatile or uncertainties spike, buy gold. It’s traditionally considered one of the safer assets because it acts as a store of value. But the precious metal pays neither a dividend, coupon nor rent.
So we crunched the numbers using data analytics platform Kensho to find out whether gold’s safe haven status really holds up. According to statistics going back to 2005, a bet on gold in times of market turbulence is often no better than a coin toss………………………………………..Full Article: Source

India’s gold demand could hit 950 tonnes as prices fall

Posted on 24 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

India’s gold demand might reach 950 tonnes this year as lower prices spur buying during the peak festival season and for weddings, the world’s biggest gold refiner, Valcambi, said. Stronger demand in the world’s second-biggest gold consumer could support global prices, which rebounded this week after hitting a 5-1/2 year low under $1,100 an ounce in July.
Valcambi chief executive Michael Mesaric said gold demand would be strong this year. “It could be between 900 tonnes to 950 tonnes,” he said on the sidelines of the International Gold Convention in the city of Panaji in Goa state………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Safe Haven Gold May Confirm Bullish Technical Cue

Posted on 24 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As global investors dump stocks and risky emerging market assets, the safe haven U.S. dollar and gold prices have rallied. The daily gold chart could soon confirm a bullish technical signal that might encourage more speculative buying. If the price of gold - denominated in U.S. dollars - closes Monday above $1,173.04/oz, it will be inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel and also above the Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone.
These two bullish signals could spur the pair toward the ceiling of the uptrend channel - currently at $1,209.15/oz. But if China’s central bank loosens monetary policy this week - as some are expecting - risk appetite could be revived and gold would then retreat. Gold is now trading at $1,158.10/oz from its Friday close of $1,160.65/oz………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Industry Analysts Expect Price Boost From Currency War Fears

Posted on 24 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices could rise above $1,200 an ounce in the next few months as fears of a currency war following the devaluation of the yuan make equity markets choppy, boosting physical gold and ETF buying, leading industry analysts said at a conference. The metal has already rebounded about 8 per cent from July’s 5-1/2 year low, boosted by minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting that dented expectations for an imminent rise in US rates.
Spot prices hit a peak of $1,168.40 on Friday. “After the devaluation of the Chinese currency, people are worried,” said Rajan Venkatesh, head of India bullion at ScotiaMocatta, part of Canada’s Bank of Nova Scotia. “They are afraid of a currency war. They are going back to gold.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Don’t be fooled by recent run-up in gold prices, say pros

Posted on 21 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold’s recent rally is impressive. Prices on Thursday hit their highest settlement since mid-July, but many analysts aren’t confident that the tide has fully turned for the yellow metal.
Fundamentals have certainly improved for the precious metal, which now trades around 5.3% higher month to date. On Thursday, December gold GCZ5, +0.53% climbed $25.30, or 2.2%, to settle at $1,153.20 an ounce on Comex, building on an $11, or 1%, climb from a day earlier amid a global selloff in stocks, including a more than 300-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.06% Thursday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is this gold price jump the turning point?

Posted on 21 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

On Thursday, gold shot up to a five-week high after dovish comments from the Federal Reserve threw fuel on currency fires already burning bright around the globe. In afternoon dealings in heavy volume gold futures with December delivery dates were priced at $1,153.10 an ounce in New York at its highs for the day and up $25.30 or 2.2% from Wednesday’s close. Gold is now up 6.4% from a more than five-year closing low of $1,084 struck August 5.
China’s shock currency devaluation that sent ripples through commodity dependent economies last week sparked the rally, while Fed minutes released on Thursday that indicated a rate hike is less likely in September led to a sell-off in the dollar, increasing jitters on currency and stock markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Did China Kick-Start A New Bull Market In Gold?

Posted on 21 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Many have written about the devaluation of the Chinese currency last week, in particular its causes and consequences. In mainstream media, most opinions are centered around the weakness of the Chinese economy which is now growing less than 7%. Logically, they argue, China wants to stimulate exports and stabilize the currency by ‘de-pegging’ it from a strengthening dollar.
The alternative media basically is focused on a new phase in the currency war, the aim to control capital outflows, and, obviously, the wish of China to enter the IMF’s based SDR currency system (for which a free market currency is a prerequisite). While all that could be true, we believe there is something much more important going on. Something that truly everyone is missing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

HSBC expects gold price to be up 10% by the end of 2015

Posted on 20 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

HSBC, the fourth-largest bank in the world, is predicting that the price of gold will be up 10 per cent by the end of this year and finish the year worth around $1,225 an ounce. Gold is down six per cent year-to-date.
The bank believes Goldman Sachs and other commentators are wrong to say gold will fall in price as interest rates go up. HSBC’s analysis of the data showed that the last four times that the Fed raised interest rates the gold price went up, not down………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is gold’s steadiness now a warning about other markets?

Posted on 20 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bullion closed little changed at $1,117.50, platinum was off 0.3 percent, while silver and palladium were down close to three percent. The base metals sold off again yesterday with copper and aluminium setting fresh lows, with copper breaking below $5,000 to set a low at $4,983 and aluminium reaching $1,549.50. On average, the complex was off 2.1 percent.
This morning the base metals lie between being little changed or higher, with nickel up 0.7 percent at $10,425, aluminium is up 0.3 percent and zinc is up 0.2 percent, while the rest are little changed with copper at $5,014.50, Volume has picked-up to 4,360 lots……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Jumps Most in a Week as FOMC Minutes Eases Rate Concern

Posted on 20 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold advanced the most in a week after Federal Reserve officials said they need more evidence of strength in the economy and a pickup in inflation, reducing wagers that policy makers will soon raise U.S. interest rates.
Fed officials said they want more indications that the labor market is healing and that inflation is moving toward their goal, according to minutes of last month’s Fed meeting released Wednesday. The prospect of higher rates makes gold unattractive because the metal doesn’t pay interest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Trading and the China Effect

Posted on 20 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A higher interest rate scenario in the US also means that Gold may not be so attractive, as Bonds will start carrying higher coupons. Last week’s devaluation of the Yuan created a surge in Gold price over the following two days as investors turned to the shiny metal in search of a safe haven.
Since then the past 4 trading sessions has seen price remain within a fairly tight range between with most action between $1126.00 and $1110. China is the world’s number three market for Gold demand but the devaluation of its currency may have a negative effect in the longer run as Gold quoted in US Dollars becomes more expensive. Last Friday China’s biggest Gold Bullion ETF (exchange traded fund), Huaan Yifu Gold, reported a third consecutive outflow of funds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

10 Gold Market Facts You Should Know

Posted on 19 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Here are ten basic gold-market realities that are either unknown or ignored by many gold ‘experts’: 1. Supply always equals demand, with the price changing to maintain the equivalence. In this respect the gold market is no different from any other market that clears, but it’s incredible how often comments like “demand is increasing relative to supply” appear in gold-related articles.
2. The supply of gold is the total above-ground gold inventory, which is currently somewhere in the 150K-200K tonne range. Mining’s contribution is to increase the above-ground inventory by about 1.5% each year. An implication is that there should never be a shortage of gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Devaluation Sparks Gold Buying Everywhere - Except China

Posted on 19 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After last week’s surprise yuan devaluation investors everywhere were eager to buy gold as a haven. Everywhere, that is, except in China. Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, the bullion exchange-traded product with the biggest volume in China over the past month, posted a third straight weekly outflow as of Aug. 14. The withdrawal came even as global ETPs posted the first increase of assets since late June. Holdings in the Chinese fund are heading for the first monthly loss since April.
Gold prices in New York have climbed about 1 percent since Aug. 10, the day before China carried out its first major devaluation of the yuan since 1994 in a bid to promote domestic economic growth. While the currency move spurred some investors to seek shelter from volatility across equity and commodity markets, it also shored up confidence among Chinese buyers, dimming the haven appeal of precious metals in the nation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold is undervalued for the first time since 2009

Posted on 19 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of what fund managers are doing with their money shows a few similarities between the markets of today and the post-Lehman collapse of 2009. Investors are full of “bearish sentiment” with two-thirds saying a Chinese recession and an emerging market debt crisis are the two biggest tail risks out there. Tail risks being events you don’t expect to happen, but are possible.
Cash holdings are up at 5.2%, near the record 5.5% seen in the wake of the global financial crisis, while a slim majority say gold is undervalued. The last time the gold market had signal like this it was 2009 and the yellow metal more than doubled in price within two years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Citi lowers gold price forecasts for 2015, 2016

Posted on 19 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Citi lowered its average gold price forecasts for this year and 2016 as weak macro themes and short-term fundamentals dominate the market, it said on Tuesday. The bank now forecasts gold prices to average $1,090 per ounce in the third quarter of this year, slipping further into the fourth quarter to $1,050. The bank forecasts an annual average price this year of $1,140 and $1,050 in 2016.
The spot gold price was last at $1,111.2/1,111.5, down $5.80 on the previous close. After testing $1,080 in the first week of August, gold prices rallied 1.7 percent last week after a surprise devaluation of the Chines yuan sparked renewed safe-haven buying and prompted short-covering in gold, which had recently reached all-time lows in COMEX money manager net length………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Advances as Signs of Slow U.S. Growth Ease Fed-Rate Concern

Posted on 18 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold gained for the first time in three sessions after a gauge of manufacturing in the New York area slumped at the fastest pace since the recession, weakening the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.
The Fed Bank of New York’s Empire State index unexpectedly dropped in August to the lowest since April 2009. Gold also climbed as China’s devaluation of the yuan last week fueled economic-growth concerns on emerging markets, boosting demand for a haven………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China Doubles Gold Buying, Yuan Devaluation the Big Focus for Bullion Gains

Posted on 18 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold bullion rose near $1120 per ounce in London trade Friday, heading for only the second weekly rise in 8 as China followed this week’s Yuan devaluation by reporting additional gold reserves for the second time in a month. The Yuan rose slightly on the FX market, recouping a little of the week’s earlier 3.5% drop after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) moved Tuesday to a ‘market determined’ reference rate for its currency.
Asian shares held flat, but Shanghai equities closed the week almost 6% higher from last Friday as China’s securities regulator said Beijing may reduce its recent intervention to support the market after this summer’s near 30% plunge. Eurozone stock markets fell again, with Germany’s Dax index dropping 4.5% for the week as the single currency extended its rise on the FX market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Price Steadies After Yuan Devaluation, China ‘Must Liberalize’ to Gain Pricing Power

Posted on 18 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold Prices held steady against the US Dollar on Monday morning in London, as China’s stock market reversed earlier losses but Eurozone equities erased opening gains. Gold priced in the Euro edged 0.5% higher as the single currency ticked lower on the FX market, but continued to hold stronger against the Yuan from last week’s ‘devaluation’ by Beijing.
After the LBMA Gold Price – the world’s benchmark daily price – saw heavy volume set the highest weekly finish since mid-July on Friday at $1118.25 per ounce, interest eased Monday morning with the AM auction ‘fixing’ one Dollar lower in London. Silver prices held firm above last week’s finish, but traded 2% below Friday’s spike to 1-month highs at $15.62 per ounce………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold Price to Average $1,250 in 2016: Panmure Gordon

Posted on 18 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Gold prices will average $1,250 in 2016, Kieron Hodgson, commodities and mining analyst at Panmure Gordon, said in an interview with Mark Barton on Bloomberg’s “On the Move.”.………………………………………Full Article: Source

China, Russia creating own gold market

Posted on 17 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As Western central banks continue their manipulation of the gold price in order to prop up flagging fiat currencies, two of the world’s largest bullion hoarders are fashioning their own gold market which will function outside the dollar system.
This according to American-German historian and researcher F. William Engdahl, quoted in a piece this weekend on Sputnik, a politics and business blog. On clandestine gold price manipulation by central bankers aimed at preserving the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, Engdahl states:……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Listen up, gold bugs: HSBC predicts a year-end recovery

Posted on 17 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The precipitous downturn in gold has taken the market to levels not seen since March 2009 but low prices may contain the seeds of the next rally, according to HSBC. The bank projects prices will end the year as much as 10 percent higher than current levels; gold closed at $1,114 an ounce on Friday.
Gold has struggled to regain its allure this year, down 6 percent since January, as investors continue to shun the precious metal in favor of higher yielding assets such as equities. But there could be some light at the end of the tunnel, with HSBC offering food for thought on the possibility of a gold resurgence. In a report on Friday, the bank set out five reasons its experts believe gold prices could recover to $1,200 per ounce to $1,225 towards the end of the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s gold reserves rise 19 tonnes in July

Posted on 17 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s gold reserves rose by more than 19 tonnes in July, the official Xinhua news agency said yesterday, after the central bank last month gave the statistic for the first time in six years. Bullion holdings stood at 1,677.30 tonnes at the end of July, Xinhua said citing the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), a 1.16 per cent increase on June’s 1,658 tonnes.
The rise is worth nearly $700 million, according to yesterday’s price of $1,118.25 an ounce on the London Bullion Market. The PBoC issued gold reserve figures last month for the first time since April 2009, revealing a rise of 57pc over the past six years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold demand falls to six-year low

Posted on 14 August 2015 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Demand for gold fell to its lowest in six years in the second quarter, in a further sign the world’s largest buyers are staying away. The world’s two largest consumers, China and India, accounted for half of the fall in global demand to 914.9 tonnes, according to a report from the World Gold Council, an industry body.
Gold has been hit this year by the strengthening US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, failing to draw any haven demand from the uncertainty over Greece earlier this year. But signs of weakness in India and China, where gold is primarily used for jewellery, may add to concerns about the outlook for the metal……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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