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Slowing China pushes oil prices lower

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices retreated Tuesday for the second straight day after Chinese data showed a contraction in the nation’s manufacturing sector. A January collapse in the Chinese stock market helped push crude oil prices into the $30-per-barrel range as global economic recovery developed too slowly to take in the glut of oil on the market.
Prices recovered substantially in April as market watchers said balance was returning, though recent sentiments have pulled on enduring optimism. Financial group Caixin reported Tuesday its view of the Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a reading of 49.4 for April, a figure that represents a formal contraction for the sector………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Cramer - Ignore the Reports, Oil is Going to $50

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices fell again Tuesday, hovering between $43 and $44 per barrel around midday. The decline has reportedly been sparked by fears of a supply glut and decreased global demand.
Oil below $45 per barrel worries TheStreet’s founder Jim Cramer, yet he is not wavering in his $50 price target. While the West Texas Intermediate crude oil forward strip does not predict prices near $50 through the end of 2017, analysts have often lamented that the strip is never right………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price Upheaval Finally Hits Refiners

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

U.S. refiners, which posted robust profits the last 18 months even as other parts of the oil business were racked by low crude prices, finally saw their roll come to a halt in the first quarter. Many refining businesses reported earnings for the period that were down roughly by half from a year earlier.
That decline helped sour results for oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., which has counted on refining to offset profit declines in energy production, and for Valero Energy Corp., the world’s largest stand-alone refiner by output, which on Tuesday reported its lowest first-quarter profit in four years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi-Iran split muddies OPEC long-term strategy: Sources

Posted on 04 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC has yet to agree on a long-term strategy as Saudi Arabia objects to a proposal from arch-rival Iran that the exporter group aim for tighter control of the oil market, sources said, pointing to deep divisions over the way forward.
The OPEC board of governors met on Monday in Vienna to discuss the latest draft of its LTS. While they made progress on some issues, OPEC kingpin Riyadh disagreed with Tehran’s proposal to include “effective production management” as a challenge for the group, two OPEC sources said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is $50 Oil The New $100? (Depends On What You Think $100 Was)

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The rise in the price of oil to $45 from a low of $25 is probably not seeing champagne corks popping in Houston (and definitely not in Riyadh), but it is probably letting a lot of producers (and their bankers) breathe easier.
And various pundits have started to suggest that this is the point where markets will stabilize (a sustainable price, as the kids say), allowing just enough for many companies to invest and, if not expand, at least maintain production, while not drowning the oil market in light crudes from U.S. shales………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price Rally Isn’t as Deep Rooted as It Looks at First Glance

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

At first glance, oil prices have rallied - a lot. Look closer, however, and the market is still pricing the “lower-for-longer” mantra, much as it did at the beginning of the year. Front-month futures for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, have risen 21 percent this year, but the recovery looks very different if you focus on the longer term.
The five-year-forward WTI contract fell 2.6 percent over the same period, reflecting the view that shale oil production could rebound as prices recover, capping any rally. “The markets may be getting ahead of themselves,” Michael Wittner, oil analyst at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a note to clients………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil rally is not just about hedge funds: Kemp

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices are becoming dangerously overheated as speculators anticipate a rebalancing of supply and demand that has barely started, according to many oil analysts. “Even as oil rallies, analysts have barely nudged up their price forecasts as they worry that crude’s recent gains might not be sustainable,” notes the Wall Street Journal.
Many fear hedge funds are pushing up oil prices prematurely, which will lead to a renewed crash when the bubble bursts, as it did after the last big run-up in prices between January and May 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Slide on Bearish Data

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC production figures reinforce concerns oversupply fundamentals still gripping the market. U.S. and global oil prices fell sharply Monday after data showed rising oil stockpiles in the U.S. and increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Analysts and brokers said the three-month, 70% rally in oil prices appeared to be losing steam, with speculative bets hitting their highest levels in a year even as supply-and-demand conditions have yet to show substantial improvement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

BP Says Oil Price Not Lower Forever

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices will eventually rebound, BP’s Upstream Chief Executive Bernard Looney told attendees during a presentation at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. “Is it lower for longer or lower forever? At BP we don’t think it’s lower forever,” Looney assured oil and gas industry delegates during the first day of the global conference.
“You hear people questioning the future of oil and gas … The world needs this industry; half the world still lives in poverty…these people deserve the same opportunities we take for granted and oil and gas has [the potential to deliver that],” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank raises forecast for crude oil prices

Posted on 03 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $ 41 per barrel from $ 37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. This represents a drop of 19 per cent from the 2015, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.
In a statement made available to the Ghana News Agency by the World Bank’s Online Media Briefing Centre (OMBC), it said improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar was responsible for its position. It said the crude oil market rebounded from a low of $ 25 per barrel in mid-January to $ 40 per barrel in April, following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production, mainly United States sale………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA chief Birol: Oil prices may have hit bottom, but watch the economy

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may have bottomed out, providing that the health of the global economy does not pose a concern.
Oil prices hit 2016 highs on Friday with Brent crude reaching $48.50 a barrel on optimism that a global oil glut will ease. That, coupled with a weaker dollar, has helped lift crude futures by more than $20 a barrel since prices plumbed 12-year lows below $30 in the first quarter………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Only way is up for oil price

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The oil price may have reached its floor after touching decade-low levels this year because of fears about a supply glut and a stand-off between the big producing nations, according to the world’s leading energy official.
Speaking at the weekend, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said that it “may well be the case” that the decline in the oil price, which has wreaked havoc on suppliers and prompted projects worth hundreds of billions of pounds to be put on hold, could be at an end………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil market déjà vu triggers predictions of a return to $30

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil’s climb above $45 a barrel is reassuring influential figures from BP PLC to the International Energy Agency that the industry finally is recovering from the worst slump in a generation. Others, though, say the market is about to fall into the same trap as last year.
There’s a sense of déjà vu at Commerzbank AG, BNP Paribas SA and UBS Group AG, which say crude’s gain of about 70 percent from a 12-year low in January resembles the recovery that took hold this time last year — only to sputter out by May as the supply glut endured. Prices will sink back toward $30 a barrel in the coming weeks, BNP and UBS warn………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil markets to rebalance in the second half of this year

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil markets are expected to rebalance in the second half of this year as oil supplies decrease due to massive cuts in capital expenditure by oil and gas companies, analysts said.
From less than $30 (Dh110) per barrel in January, oil prices have recovered and moved towards $50 per barrel with Brent trading at $48.50 on Friday due to optimism that global oil glut will ease. “We believe under normal conditions towards the end of this year, second half of this year but latest 2017, markets will rebalance,” International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said on Sunday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil could trade above $60 in 2017: report

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil supply growth by Opec countries will not match the output declines being experienced by non-Opec producers and this could lead to higher crude prices next year, says a report. To balance the oil market by 2020, US oil and gas capex will have to increase by at least 50 per cent, leading oil prices to trade above the current forward strip and into a $55-70 per barrel range, said the report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) titled “Global Energy Weekly: The oil supply cliffhanger”.
There is still a large set of drilled but uncompleted shale wells that could come on stream over the next few months and US companies are expected to play a role in stabilizing non-Opec supplies, it explained………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC oil output near record high in April

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s oil output rose in April to close to the highest level in recent history, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as production increases led by Iran and Iraq more than offset a strike in Kuwait and other outages.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia, however, made no major change to output, the survey found, despite the kingdom hinting it could boost supply after OPEC and non-member nations failed to agree to freeze output at a meeting on April 17………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Russia Fight For China Market Make Oil Price A Sham

Posted on 02 May 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil closing in on $50 per barrel has little to do with supply. Sure, stocks have dwindled somewhat in the U.S. and China is slowing down but what about the fact that three of the world’s biggest oil producers are in a pumping war to capture market share in China and Europe?
Russia seems to have discovered China about a year or two ago. It’s building new pipelines. It’s signing deals between state owned enterprises. Oil is flowing. The Saudis are getting nervous as Russia eats into its China market. They’re shipping even more crude to China and some say they are doing it below market prices, taking a loss just to keep Aramco in China’s good graces………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec bid to throw US out of oil market seems to have backfired

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices continued to trend higher for the second consecutive fortnight in a row, as Brent rose more than 7.5 per cent while WTI gained 10.10 per cent over the same period.
On MCX, oil prices have risen by around 11.85 per cent in the same time frame. The rally in oil prices is triggered by a combination of factors such as increased optimism that prices may have bottomed out and also increased speculative behaviour by fund managers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil market to face lack of supply in 3 years: Total CEO

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global oil market will face a lack of supply in three years’ time due to expenditure cuts and postponements in mega projects, Patrick Pouyanne, chairman of the Board and CEO of French oil giant Total said.
Speaking at 2016 Columbia Global Energy Summit, Pouyanne talked about the difficulties that oil companies are facing under low oil prices. “Fifteen days after I became the CEO of Total, oil prices collapsed … and we lost $10 billion in cash flows in two months,” he said. “Due to the huge drop in oil prices, most of the players had to squeeze their cash flows and investments,” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil’s Rise Chugs On

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude prices increase as many traders become more confident that oversupply will wane. Oil’s rally chugged ahead on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark closing above $46 a barrel for the first time since November, again thwarting analysts who have repeatedly called for a retreat.
Global supply remains strong and U.S. stockpiles are increasing, but many traders are convinced the oversupplied market is on its way to balancing, brokers said. Their hopes are buoyed by steadily declining U.S. production and intermittent supply disruptions around the globe. And they got an extra boost Thursday from currency markets that lifted several commodity prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rising oil prices throw lifeline to shale producers: Kemp

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Brent prices for 2017 ended trading above $50 per barrel on Wednesday for the first time since mid-December following the largest and most sustained rally in prices since the oil slump started.
The average for the 12 futures contracts expiring in 2017, called the calendar strip, has risen by 34 percent from its recent low of $37.45 on Jan. 20 to $50.26 on April 27.Spot prices, represented by the nearest futures contract, dominate the headlines and are of most interest to analysts and financial investors………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Did OPEC Just Start Preparing for the End of the Oil Era?

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Sunday, April 17, was the designated moment. The world’s leading oil producers were expected to bring fresh discipline to the chaotic petroleum market and spark a return to high prices.
Meeting in Doha, the glittering capital of petroleum-rich Qatar, the oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with such key non-OPEC producers as Russia and Mexico, were scheduled to ratify a draft agreement obliging them to freeze their oil output at current levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Analysts Just Aren’t Buying the Oil Rally

Posted on 29 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Questions remain about current high oil stockpiles and the potential for increased supply. Even as oil rallies, analysts have barely nudged up their price forecasts as they worry that crude’s recent gains might not be sustainable.
The price of oil has jumped 76% from the decade-low it hit earlier this year. That is mainly on hopes that dwindling U.S. oil production will help take crude out of an oversupplied market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia will struggle to kick its addiction to oil: Kemp

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“King Abdulaziz and the men who worked with him for the establishment of the state did not depend on oil and they established the kingdom without oil, and they ran this state without oil, and they lived in this state without oil,” Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an televised interview on Monday.
The deputy crown prince criticised the kingdom’s subsequent “addiction” to oil which has “disrupted the development of many sectors in the past years” implying this was a relatively recent problem………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank optimistic on oil averaging at $41 this year

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

World Bank boosted its forecast for oil prices this year, projecting that refinery demand will pick up and United States production cuts will steepen in the second half of 2016.
Crude prices will average $41 per barrel this year, which is still down 19 per cent from 2015, the Washington-based development bank said on Tuesday in its quarterly commodity-markets outlook. The bank in January had predicted a price of $37 per barrel, which represents a composite of projections for the Brent, West Texas Intermediate and Dubai Fateh blends………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil tops $45 a barrel for first time since November

Posted on 28 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil climbed above $45 a barrel in New York today for the first time since November after U.S. industry data showed a decline in crude stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate futures rose as much as 2.6 percent, extending a 3.3 percent gain Tuesday.
Supplies fell by 1.07 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report. The World Bank boosted its forecast for oil prices this year, projecting that demand will pick up and U.S. output cuts will steepen in the second half of 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank sees US$41 oil this year, but cuts outlook for other commodities

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to US$41 per barrel, up from the US$37 per barrel forecast at the start of this year, in view of “improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar”.
This forecast of firming energy prices, made in the World Bank’s latest edition of its Commodity Markets Outlook, is thus positive for producing countries in Asia and elsewhere, and also for central banks struggling to reverse persistent deflationary trends in their economies. The bank’s outlook for other commodities, however, is less bright………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi reforms could be low oil price’s cure

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A major obstacle holding back economic reform in Saudi Arabia has been removed. And with it goes one of the main barriers to a rising oil price. Saudi’s cabinet approved an economic reform plan on April 25 aimed at ending the country’s addiction to crude.
The plan’s author, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, could plausibly argue that after the price of oil had fallen 60 percent in two years, it was time to radically overhaul the economy and open up new sources of non-oil income. Now that his strategy has won official backing, the 31-year-old prince has a chance to get the best of both worlds by moving ahead with reforms while letting oil prices - which Saudi effectively drives as the swing producer - climb at the same time………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil hits 2016 high after U.S. crude draw report, gasoline rally

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices hit 2016 highs on Tuesday on the back of a rally in the gasoline market and after an industry group reported a surprise draw in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent and U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished regular trading about 3 percent higher, riding on the coattails of a gasoline rally that hit August highs after a series of refinery hikes.
In post-settlement trade, both benchmarks rose more than 4 percent after the American Petroleum Institute reported a drawdown of nearly 1.1 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week versus a 2.4 million-barrel build expected by analysts in a Reuters poll………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Venezuela formally proposes non-OPEC producers attend Vienna meeting

Posted on 27 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Venezuela has proposed that non-OPEC oil producers attend the group’s June meeting in Vienna to continue “dialogue and coordination,” according to a letter sent by the South American country’s oil minister to the Qatari energy minister, who is also the current OPEC president.
“We’ve formally proposed to continue Doha discussions in Vienna,” Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino told Reuters on Tuesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Indonesia sees oil price of $50 to $60 as ideal

Posted on 26 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent meeting in Doha may not have yielded positive results in freezing production but it was successful in terms of participation and engagement from oil producing countries to stabilise oil prices, Indonesia Governor for Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) told reporters in Abu Dhabi.
“If the expectation is to freeze production, of course it was not achieved. But by having communication and engagement and getting participation from more countries it is a success. That was never done before,” said Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja Indonesia Governor for Opec and Special Advisor to Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia’s Break-Even Oil Price Plunges as Spending Drops

Posted on 26 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia will see the biggest drop this year in the oil price needed to balance its budget as Riyadh curbs spending amid the crude-market rout. The kingdom’s fiscal break-even will fall to $66.70 a barrel from $94.80 in 2015, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
The 30 percent drop is the steepest among a group of Middle East and North African OPEC members reviewed by the IMF. While that break-even remains above current market prices, the trend shows Saudi Arabia is adjusting to the slump in crude triggered by its November 2014 decision to push the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to change strategy and fight for market share. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC’s grip might loosen, but it still has pull

Posted on 26 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC counts 13 countries among its membership, but one of them has long reigned as a first among equals. Saudi Arabia, with its production of around 10.2 million b/d representing about a third of the group’s output — and about 11% of world supply — has served as OPEC’s de facto leader, its swing capacity traditionally leading the organization’s efforts to manage the market.
But last week’s failed talks in Doha to enact a production freeze saw a potential new oil producer group emerge with another player in the room that could have changed the dynamics of the market and challenged Saudi political eminence in world oil affairs………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Without alliance with Russia, OPEC is powerless

Posted on 26 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The failure at the Doha talks that were supposed to help put an end to oil price crisis showed to the whole world how divided the OPEC is. The agreement, that seemed to be almost there, was shattered, undermined by a longstanding Saudi-Iran rivalry.
Now, with a consensus once again pushed back, will the oil producers be able to find common ground? Why Saudi Arabia is putting its own economic wellbeing on the altar of political bickering? And finally, is the age of oil going through its final agony, or will the price for black gold rise again?……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Why cheap oil hasn’t saved the US economy

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Cheaper oil boosts an economy. It’s Econ 101. But while growth has been chugging along in America, it hasn’t been as vigorous as you’d expect with a 60% drop in oil prices since 2014. Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers has called the lack of a big bounce one of the biggest economic puzzles of our time.
Somehow, it may even turn out to be bad for the economy. The economy should get a lift through several channels. One of the most significant is that lower fuel prices mean people have more money to spend on other things………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price corridor of $40-60/bbl new reality for next 5 years

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The oil price corridor of $40-60 a barrel is the new reality for the coming five years, Russian Deputy Minister of Economic Development Alexei Vedev said. “We assume the oil prices range of $40-60 [a barrel] is the new reality and the new normal situation for the next five years. The crisis also involves varying response of economic branches to the Russian ruble devaluation and change of environment. A natural structural transformation is taking place in our industry under influence of external factors,” the official said.
It was reported earlier the Ministry of Economic Development set the Urals oil price of $40 per barrel in the scenario conditions for the Russian economy in 2016-2019………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran backs any move to stabilize oil market

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh says Iran will support any initiative to stabilize the oil market after recent talks in Qatar failed to freeze production. Zangeneh told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting with his South African counterpart in Tehran on Saturday that the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Doha was a “good step.”
“Despite failing to have a result, the start of the negotiation was good for OPEC and non-OPEC to cooperate and for big OPEC producers to accept that they have to do something to change the situation,” he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Balanced oil market seen latest by 2017

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Crude market sentiments appear upbeat, despite the Doha debacle. Speculators are back in play, reports are asserting, betting that the worst is over and the glut may be easing. Strong gasoline consumption in the United States, increasing signs of declining production around the world and oilfield outages have underpinned a return to investment in the sector, traders are now insisting.
Oil prices were higher Friday as investors continued to buy back into commodities, betting oversupplied markets will ease later this year, Wall Street Journal said, quoting brokers and analysts. The rally now has oil up oil about 65% in two months, confounding all those who expected it to lose steam after OPEC failed to reach a deal to cap production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

After Doha, what next for Opec?

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Opec has had some infamous meetings in its history. An ill-timed hike in quotas in Jakarta in November 1997 led to a crash in prices, while the June 2011 “worst ever” meeting in Vienna, as the Saudi oil minister termed it, failed to stop prices from rising. Doha last week was, perhaps, not in that league but still blended tedium, surprise and dysfunction, even more embarrassingly for including key non-Opec players.
Most Opec countries attended along with non-Opec leaders such as Russia and Oman. It seemed that the previously announced deal to freeze production at January levels was a formality, especially as most countries involved could not or would not increase output anyway………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Low Crude Prices to Spur More M&A Deals in Oil & Gas After Slump

Posted on 25 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Low oil prices will spur more mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas industry this year with some companies forced to sell to avoid bankruptcy, according to consultants A.T. Kearney. Private equity firms are probable buyers, Richard Forrest, global lead partner for the company’s energy practice, said in an interview in Dubai.
The number of oil and gas transactions declined 37 percent in 2015 as their value fell 2.5 percent to $469 billion, led by Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s acquisition of BG Group Plc and Energy Transfer Equity LP’s purchase of Williams Cos. This year, the number of transactions will go up but the value will probably decline without any big deals, he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

So investors, what if the oil price heads south again?

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Strong oil and weak dollar influence shares, EM, junk debt and FX. We are all oil traders at the moment. The resilience of crude prices in the wake of a failed production freeze deal in Doha firmly illustrates the importance of black gold for sentiment across the broader financial system at the moment.
Talk of a freeze in recent weeks propelled the robust recovery in oil prices. However, the lack of an agreement and the crackling tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia is being downplayed by energy traders. They are looking ahead to the prospect of supply and demand becoming balanced during the second half of the year, thus supporting crude prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why $80 could be ‘new normal’ for oil: Advisor

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The “new normal” for U.S. oil prices could be as much as double the current $40 per barrel, but don’t expect $65 to $80 crude until around 2018, long-time industry advisor Tom Petrie said Wednesday.
“We overshot on the downside, when we penetrated $30 [per barrel],” Petrie said, referring to the Feb. 11 bottom of $26.05 per barrel. Since then, WTI has surged about 45 percent. “Some of that recovery, shock though it was, was getting back into a more normal adjusted price.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil price builds on rally to hit five-month high

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices held firm following Wednesday’s surprise 6.5pc rally to reach a five-month high of just over $46 a barrel in early London trade.
The international Brent crude benchmark hit its highest level for the year after a closely watched US oil stock report showed lower than expected growth in an otherwise oversupplied market. On Wednesday, Brent closed at $45.80 a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oversupplied oil market to rebalance by next year, says IEA

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

International Energy Agency expects production outside Opec cartel to fall sharply this year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects the oversupplied oil market to rebalance by next year, as non-Opec production records its biggest decline in a generation.
An oil glut has prompted a slump in crude prices from a peak of $115 (£80) a barrel in June 2014, but the IEA executive director, Fatih Birol, said on Thursday that production outside tOpec would fall sharply this year, by almost 700,000 barrels a day. He expects oil markets, and prices, to rebalance at the turn of this year, or by 2017 at the latest………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Officials: May Discuss Oil Freeze at June Meeting

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC is ‘still alive’ as a force in the oil market, says secretary-general Abdallah Salem el-Badri. OPEC spoke on Thursday, but the market wasn’t listening. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could revive talk of freezing oil production along with nonmembers at its next meeting in June, said top oil officials on Thursday.
A production freeze was an idea that had helped send prices rallying more than 50% from 12-year lows last winter. But after the 13-nation producer group ultimately failed to strike a production deal with Russia in Qatar over the weekend, investors didn’t react much to the news that freeze talks could soon be renewed………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IEA predicts biggest non-Opec output fall in a quarter century

Posted on 22 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects non-Opec output to fall this year by the most in 25 years. IEA chief, Faith Birol, added that low oil prices had cut investment by around 40 per cent over the past two years, particularly in the US, Canada, Latin America and Russia.
In its medium-term report released earlier this month, the IEA said that the oil market would gradually rebalance by 2017. Oil prices have tumbled around 60 per cent from over $110 per barrel in the middle of 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hedge funds bet on tightening oil market despite Doha debacle

Posted on 21 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Brent futures prices are signaling the market expects a rapid tightening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2016. The spread between futures prices for oil delivered in June and July has moved into a backwardation of 17 cents per barrel from a contango of almost 50 cents at the end of last month.
Contango tends to be associated with an oversupplied market and high and rising stocks, while backwardation is associated with the opposite……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Why the oil market didn’t need the Doha freeze after all

Posted on 21 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When markets opened Monday morning, the price of oil dropped like a rock, as the market absorbed the news that the much anticipated oil production freeze meeting in Doha, Qatar didn’t amount to much. But oil soon recovered and traded Tuesday above $42 US a barrel.
Why? Is it because of a strike by oil workers in Kuwait? Or pipeline sabotage in Nigeria? Partly. But energy analysts say it’s also because the global oil market didn’t really need the Doha agreement. It’s already in the midst of re-balancing itself………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil market rebounds to 2016 highs as US data offers bullish surprise

Posted on 21 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The oil market staged a dramatic rebound in late trade to return to 2016 highs after unexpectedly low US supply data trumped market concerns over the abrupt end to strike action in Kuwait.
The anticipated increase in Kuwaiti supply following the sooner than expected end to a three-day oil worker strike late on Tuesday pushed the benchmark Brent crude price down more than 2.5pc to lows of $43 a barrel by Wednesday morning. But a surprising weekly US oil stock report triggered a late 4.5pc surge to just over $45 by 18:00 BST………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russia Energy Minister Unsure OPEC Will Agree to Freeze Oil Output

Posted on 21 April 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told news agencies Wednesday that he wasn’t sure oil-producing countries would be able to reach a deal to freeze production, but that the need to do so might decrease in the coming months.
“I wouldn’t say now that we are sure they will be able to agree among themselves, because there are very diverse positions,” Mr. Novak said. He cautioned against dubbing the inconclusive meeting with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Doha last week a failure, but said Saudi Arabia had been “unauthorized” to change its position at the last minute………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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