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Commodities Briefing - Category | Oil more

The ‘last ugly chapter’ for prices is yet to come

Posted on 07 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity investors generally agree that the oil market is coming into balance, but huge stockpiles of fuel and teeming strategic Chinese crude inventories could send prices on one last, ugly slide lower, analysts tell CNBC.
On Wednesday, oil futures were down more than 1 percent, following a nearly 5 percent slide Tuesday, on worries that Britain’s vote to leave the European Union would slow economic growth and dent crude oil demand. Expectations of U.S. crude stockpile growth and further weakness in the Chinese economy created additional headwinds………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil market looks neutral to bearish in near term as focus returns to fundamentals

Posted on 07 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The UK’s Brexit vote dominated oil market sentiment for most of June, not because of its direct impact on oil demand and supply but through its impact on the US dollar index and financial markets.
The UK economy plays a very small role in the global oil market, with the UK accounting for about 1 per cent of global oil supply and 1.6 per cent of demand. A stronger dollar, however, makes oil imports more expensive for holders of other currencies and is generally seen as bearish for demand. The US Dollar Index hit a three-month high of 96.7 in the aftermath of the UK’s decision to leave the EU………………………………………..Full Article: Source

CITI: Oil is a better safe-haven option than gold

Posted on 06 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

One of the more popular debates among economists revolves around this question: What’s the point of gold? Some think it doesn’t serve any purpose, and therefore has no intrinsic value. Others claim that hoarding gold is a legitimate way to safely store wealth in preparation for economic troubles.
As such, a Citi research team led by Jonathan Stubbs argued that, overall, black gold — aka oil — is probably a better bet than gold. “Many investors see gold as the ultimate hedge. We see a strong case for owning ‘black gold’ over gold for those truly looking for a two-way, rather than one-way, hedge against real world risks,” the team recently wrote in a note to clients………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price rally is over for 2016, says Vitol boss

Posted on 06 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The six-month rally in global oil markets could grind to a halt at a price of $50 a barrel as a string of recent production outages comes to an end, according to the world’s biggest independent oil trading house.
Vitol’s chief executive Ian Taylor said the market may stall at the $50 mark for the rest of the year after a quicker-than-expected recovery, before creeping slowly up to around $60 by the end of next year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Where Are Oil Prices Going? Watch the Pump

Posted on 06 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

To learn where oil prices are headed next, some analysts are saying, watch the refined-product markets. Gasoline is typically the star of the energy market in the summer, as consumers fill up their tanks for road trips. But this year, gasoline isn’t just cheap. It’s so cheap that it makes diesel, a fuel that typically sees more wintertime demand, look pricey.
Gasoline futures are recently trading down 5.6% at $1.4281 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while diesel futures are down 4.3% at $1.4464 a gallon………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves: how big are they really?

Posted on 06 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

“How much oil lies beneath the desert sands of Saudi Arabia and how long will it last before running out?” is a question that has intrigued and confounded oil experts for five decades. The kingdom has proven reserves of 266 billion barrels according to government estimates submitted to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (”Annual Statistical Bulletin”, OPEC, 2015).
If these numbers are correct, Saudi Arabia’s reserves will last for another 70 years at the average production rate of 10.2 million barrels per day reported for 2015. But there is widespread scepticism about the official estimates, which were abruptly raised without explanation from 170 billion barrels in 1987 to 260 billion in 1989……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Is It Time For OPEC To Dissolve?

Posted on 06 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC is no longer functioning as a cohesive group. Is it time for OPEC to finally dissolve? The major oil-producing countries in the world heavily depend on the income from oil. A sharp drop in oil prices has rendered them vulnerable to terrorist attacks and political uprising.
As members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), these countries previously wielded power over oil prices and enjoyed the benefits of high oil prices. Unfortunately, the oil cartel is no longer behaving like a cohesive group, and infighting among the member nations is doing more harm than good………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil eases as weak demand tempers bullish Saudi energy minister comments

Posted on 05 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global oil prices eased on Monday after comments by Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Faleh that the market was heading toward balance were tempered by slowing demand in Asia, pockets of gasoline oversupply and signs crude output could rise.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled down 25 cents to $50.10 per barrel. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were trading down 23 cents at $48.76 per barrel. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, so trading remained thin on the day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

$10 a Barrel Oil Coming Soon? Market Expert Warns the Worst is Yet to Come

Posted on 05 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

A top oil industry analyst issued an editorial this week suggesting that the recovery of the oil market will be short lived, but is he right? Probably not.
In an editorial this week, acclaimed oil market expert Gary Shilling stood by a prediction he made in August 2015 that oil prices would collapse to $10 per barrel citing higher than expected North American fracking outputs and OPEC’s refusal to limit production………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Crude Production Rises in June Led by Gains in Nigeria

Posted on 05 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s crude production increased in June as Nigeria raised output following repairs to some infrastructure that had been damaged by militant attacks. Nigeria pumped an average 1.53 million barrels a day last month, a gain of 90,000 a day from May, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The West African country was able to repair some pipelines after agreeing a cease-fire with rebels in the Niger River Delta, Emmanuel Kachikwu, Nigeria’s state minister for petroleum resources, said on June 27. On Sunday however, the Niger Delta Avengers militant group claimed five more attacks on oil installations in the region………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Has the oil price stabilised?

Posted on 05 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices may have stabilised, according to Saudi Arabia and OPEC. The Brent crude benchmark price was US$49.68 a barrel on Friday, after falling 1.8%, but has been trading around US$50 a barrel since early May. Six weeks is a long time in oil land.
That was after prices rose strongly, following a sharp plunge from above US$50 a barrel in November 2015, to less than US$30 a barrel in January 2016. Since then, oil supply appear to be slowly retracting………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why oil is still headed as low as $10 a barrel

Posted on 04 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable. But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February.
Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year. But it won’t last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices likely to rise to US$60

Posted on 04 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the latest in our series featuring fund managers and leading market experts, Mr Tom Nelson, head of commodities and resources at Investec Asset Management, gives his outlook for the volatile oil and commodities market.
Investec is an investment management company that started in South Africa in 1991. It manages approximately US$109 billion (S$148 billion) for clients all over the world. Oil prices plunged to a 12-year low of US$27.88 per barrel in January this year before recovering to US$50 per barrel in June………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi energy minister says oil market heading toward a balance

Posted on 04 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The energy minister of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, and the secretary general of OPEC agree that the global oil market is heading toward a balance and that prices are starting to settle, according to comments carried by Saudi state news agency SPA.
The statement said Khalid al-Falih and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ newly appointed secretary general, Mohammed Barkindo, had met in the Saudi city of Dhahran to discuss the role of OPEC in maintaining the stability of oil markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Focus back on oil fundamentals as Brexit dust settles

Posted on 04 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It’s back to square one in the oil markets after last week’s Brexit-induced volatility. Oil prices are expected to focus back on supply dynamics after posting the best quarter since 2009.
“Market participants have realised that a slowing UK economy will have minimal impact on the levels of global demand for oil, and as a result prices are expected to continue the path of least resistance upwards,” Vaqar Zuberi, Portfolio Manager & Senior Analyst within Mirabaud Asset Management’s Hedge Fund team told Gulf News………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Brexit won’t alter $40-50/bbl oil price range for better or worse

Posted on 01 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After the UK became the first European Union member nation to exit the bloc following a referendum on 23 June, oil futures inevitably got caught up in the market melee that ensued. Trailing a wider equities market sell-off, and a weakening of G10 currencies – excepting the yen – oil futures endured short calls for two successive sessions following the vote.
Yet, at end of the kerfuffle and week on from the Brexit vote – both Brent and WTI front month contracts continue to lurk just below the $50 per barrel mark, unable to mount either a sustained climb above it, or slide into a decline substantially below it………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Brexit could still spook the oil market

Posted on 01 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Trading in commodity markets might have resumed relative normality following Brexit turbulence, but one investment bank has detailed the downside risk that the oil price could still face.
“We believe the increase in macro-economic uncertainty (following the Brexit vote) raises downside risks to global GDP (gross domestic product) growth expectations,” a global commodities research team at JPMorgan, led by Scott Speaker, said in a note Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil leads robust gains for commodity prices this year

Posted on 01 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Total returns for a basket of 22 raw materials are over 20% since the start of January. Oil prices have risen around 34 per cent in the last six months, on target for the best start to the year since 2009 and helping commodities outperform other major asset classes during the first half of the year.
Data show total returns from the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks returns from 22 raw material contracts, are over 20 per cent. This compares to global bonds, at about 9 per cent, and global equities that are down almost 3 per cent………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why Goldman thinks its $50 oil forecast could be wrong

Posted on 01 July 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Most oil market pundits will tell you how hard it is to predict where the black stuff is heading. And while Goldman Sachs is the most influential commodities bank, like pretty much every forecaster, it has been known to get things wrong.
Now it’s said that crude could trade below its $50 forecast in the second half of 2016 due to higher-than-expected output from Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) member Nigeria, Bloomberg reported………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Oil Price Rebound Will Be Brief - Goldman Sachs

Posted on 30 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs has rejected analysts’ opinions that the global oil market is recovering, noting that while it expects a “modest” deficit in the coming months based on the slight rebound in oil prices, the market will again be in a state of surplus by early next year.
It may seem as if oil is recovering on the back of supply disruptions that have helped to chip away at the global glut and push prices close to $50, but Goldman says that in the best-case scenario this isn’t a rebound—it’s just the first signs of one……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Abu Dhabi Merger to Create Oil Producer Dwarfing OPEC’s Libya

Posted on 30 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Abu Dhabi’s proposed merger of two of its largest sovereign investment funds would create a global energy business that produces more oil than OPEC member Libya and with bigger assets than ConocoPhillips.
The Persian Gulf emirate with about 6 percent of the world’s crude reserves will combine Mubadala Development Co. and International Petroleum Investment Co. to cut costs and boost efficiency, the state news agency WAM reported Wednesday. The deal would pool assets of about $135 billion, many of them non-energy-related, and debt of about $42 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Iraq’s oil exports set to decline in June for second month

Posted on 30 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iraq’s oil exports are set to decline in June for a second month, according to loading data and an industry source, adding to signs that supply growth from OPEC’s second-largest producer is slowing this year.
Iraq in 2015 provided the biggest rise in supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. But companies working in Iraq have warned the government that projects to boost output will be delayed if Baghdad cuts spending in response to low oil prices……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil Is Still Heading to $10 a Barrel

Posted on 29 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable.
But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year. But it won’t last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices rebound in post-Brexit bargain hunting

Posted on 29 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices rose above $48 a barrel on Tuesday as investors took advantage of a two-day slide in crude following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union to lock in lower prices.
The vote result sent global stocks and currencies spiralling down, though oil price losses were relatively limited due to expectations of strong summer demand in Asia and the United States, as well as tightening supplies after a two-year rout. A looming strike at several Norwegian oil and gas fields threatened to cut output in western Europe’s biggest producer, also helped support prices on Tuesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Big Banks on Oil: Keep Bullish Despite Brexit

Posted on 28 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup joined Deutsche Bank in saying the worst may be nearly over for oil. Brexit has raised risks but ultimately does little to dent the trends of rising demand and falling supply that have been pushing oil on its strongest rally in years, the banks said.
Even if spillover effects from the vote slowed major economies around the world, it would likely reduce oil demand by just 130,000 barrels, or 0.1% of global demand, Goldman analysts said. Deutsche Bank had estimated an even smaller impact, just 100,000 fewer barrels, compared with outages in Nigeria that are taking 400,000 barrels a day off the market………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Goodbye to OPEC?

Posted on 28 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Should the 169th OPEC meeting held earlier this month be its last? As former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said, “To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.”
For Saudi Arabia and the remaining Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates), which together account for around 40 percent of the world’s oil reserves and the lion’s share of OPEC’s collective output, their future oil strategy should be an exclusively GCC affair, away from the stress and dysfunction of OPEC………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC’s Pain Is Only Getting Worse As Revenues Continue To Fall

Posted on 28 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC lost $349 billion in revenue last year because of low oil prices, cutting revenues almost in half from the year before. A report from the EIA in mid-June estimated 2015 revenues for OPEC countries at $404 billion, down 46 percent from the $753 billion the member countries earned in 2014. Revenues last year fell to their lowest level in eleven years.
Worse still for OPEC is the fact that revenues could fall even further this year, as low oil prices sank to new depths, particularly in the first quarter of 2016. The EIA projects OPEC revenues this year to drop to $341 billion. That will result in per capita oil export revenues in OPEC countries falling from $606 in 2015 to $503 this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia Is Changing Its Tone In The Oil Market

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia is talking the oil market up lately. That’s a big change from a few months when it was talking the market down. In fact, Saudi Arabia has been doing much more than talking the oil market up – it has been hiking oil prices.
It was back in February when Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s petroleum minister at the time, told American frackers publicly that they would be crushed by the market. By an oil oversupply, that is, due to the fact that they didn’t have the cost structure to survive an on-going price war that threatened to take oil close to $20………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Bulls Face Specter of Market Turmoil on Brexit Aftershocks

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil bulls could end up road kill following the Brexit ballot. Crude tumbled as much as 6.8 percent June 24 after U.K. voters decided to leave the European Union. While some analysts said supply and demand still favor rising prices, Britain’s exit means there’ll be a period of uncertainty over Europe’s future, casting a shadow over the market.
“A vote for Brexit is a vote against globalization, against the free mobility of people and goods,” said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “Any reversal in the growth of trade and mobility is bad for the commodities, except gold.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

‘Brexit’ Unlikely to Have Big Impact on U.K. Oil and Gas Market, Consultant Says

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The U.K. is too large a market for European oil and gas sellers to be marginalized too much by its exit from the European Union, said Simon Flowers, chairman and energy chief analyst at global oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Flowers said the U.K. could be subject to some tariffs on oil and gas from the EU as part of any new trade deal. However, global markets for both resources are oversupplied and there is enough competition for the U.K. to ensure it still gets a good deal, he added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Has the Oil Market Finally Bottomed?

Posted on 27 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Ever since oil prices started tumbling in late 2014, oil executives, analysts, and investors have been wondering when the market will finally hit rock bottom. While there have been many guesses over the past two years, the data is starting to suggest that the market could have bottomed out during the second quarter. At least that is the view of oil-field services giant Schlumberger.
At a recent industry conference, Patrick Schorn, Schlumberger’s president of 0perations, detailed what the company is seeing in the oil market. He started off by noting that market conditions during the second quarter were as bad as it expected………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia Declares Cease-Fire in Oil War

Posted on 24 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih, says the oil glut is over. That means the kingdom’s war against U.S. shale producers is coming to an end, too. Who won it is a tough question to answer; on balance, it’s probably the Saudis, but they have paid a huge price, and the surviving U.S. frackers have also benefited.
In September 2014, Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s state oil company, simultaneously increased output and discounts to Asian customers, making it difficult for producers with higher costs to compete. The U.S. shale industry responded with desperate bravado, cutting costs, perfecting technologies and pumping like crazy to avoid defaulting on its debts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Will oil price surge if Remain wins the EU referendum?

Posted on 24 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil futures, like most risk assets, has been doing better in recent days as traders take heart from a late polls shift to Remain ahead of the EU referendum. Having fallen for six consecutive sessions from a 2016 high of $53 two weeks ago, international benchmark Brent crude returned to $50 earlier this week. It has been held back from further gains by supply concerns – so would a Remain victory send it soaring?
No, says investment bank BNP Paribas. It outlines a lose-lose scenario for oil: either a Leave vote sends the price spiralling lower in response to a demand-dampening surge for the dollar against the pound, or a Remain victory focuses attention back on supply and demand fundamentals that do not support higher prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC oil revenues slump to 10-year low

Posted on 24 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s 13 member countries saw oil export revenues slump to their lowest level in a decade last year. Crude revenues fell nearly 46% to $518 billion in 2015, according to OPEC’s annual bulletin published Wednesday.
Collapsing world oil prices also meant that OPEC countries spent more importing goods than they raised from exports for the first time in 17 years. The cartel posted a combined current account deficit of just under $100 billion in 2015, compared with a surplus of $238 billion in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Registers First Collective Deficit Since 1998

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC member countries last year registered their first collective budget deficit since 1998, the group said Wednesday, the result of an oil-price slump that dropped government petroleum-export revenue to a 10-year low.
In its annual statistical report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries illustrated how an oil rout that has cut prices in half since 2014 has weighed on the economies of crude-dependent states. OPEC members ran a combined deficit of $99.6 billion in 2015, compared with a surplus of $238.1 billion in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price fall tips OPEC current account into deficit in 2015, first since 1998

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s 2015 oil export revenues slumped 46 percent to a 10-year low, the group said in a report published on Wednesday, underlining the impact on producers’ income from a collapse in prices.
Oil prices at about $50 a barrel are half their level in mid-2014, pressured by oversupply. OPEC’s decision in November 2014 to not cut supply, hoping a drop in prices would curb supply from competitors, deepened the decline. With income falling, the 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) posted a combined current account deficit of $99.60 billion in 2015, compared with a surplus of $238.10 billion in 2014………………………………………..Full Article: Source

OPEC Says Its Oil Revenue Plunges $438 Billion to 10-Year Low

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC said its oil revenue plunged by $438 billion to a 10-year low last year, as an increase in export volumes failed to compensate for the collapse in prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries earned $518.2 billion in 2015 from the sale of crude and refined fuels, the lowest figure since 2005, the group’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its Annual Statistical Bulletin.
It boosted exports by 1.7 percent to 23.6 million barrels a day, maintaining its share of global markets, as Iraq increased output and Saudi Arabia pressed on with a policy to squeeze rivals………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran names new OPEC envoy - oil ministry

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iran named oil ministry senior analyst Behrouz Beik Alizadeh as its new representative at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the ministry’s news agency SHANA reported on Wednesday.
Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said in an official statement that Beik Alizadeh would replace Mehdi Asali, who is retiring………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil analysts agree price will rise, but disagree on magic number

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Just months after asking, “How low can it go?” oil analysts are raising price forecasts for 2017 and beyond. But they differ on how high it will go, and when. Many firms see a gradual increase toward $80 a barrel in the coming years, but one believes the oil cycle will peak next year.
On Monday, Raymond James increased its already bullish forecast, calling for U.S. crude at $80 a barrel in 2017, up $5 from its previous forecast. Thereafter, it believes oil will fall to $75 in 2018 and $70 in 2019………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi energy minister says oil glut has vanished

Posted on 23 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister said the supply glut that kindled a crippling oil rout around the world and thrashed Houston’s biggest business for two years has finally vanished.
“We are out of it,” Khalid Al-Falih said in his first newspaper interview since his rise to the most powerful job in the global energy industry last month. “The oversupply has disappeared. We just have to carry the overhang of inventory for a while until the system works it out.”……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Fall on Supply Overhang, ‘Brexit’ Uncertainty

Posted on 22 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices fell Tuesday but pared a lot of their losses late in the day as investors try to navigate an array of volatile influences on the market. Many expect supply outages to end in Nigeria and Canada, but others claim it will have little influence. New polls have caused quick-changing expectations on the U.K.’s referendum on European Union membership.
Analysts are predicting a drain from U.S. crude stockpiles, but they are still near record highs. And U.S. crude’s front-month contract expired with much bigger losses than later-month contracts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rosneft’s Sechin says Saudi Arabia, U.S. and Russia call shots on oil markets

Posted on 22 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s top oil producer Rosneft, said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia were the three main players on global oil markets, dismissing again OPEC’s role as a regulator. He told Rossiya-24 TV that Russia’s role in hydrocarbon markets will strengthen.
Russia is the world’s top oil and natural gas producer, pumping oil at around 10.8 million barrels per day. It plans to at least keep production of crude oil, its chief export commodity, at the current level………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Era of Cheap Oil Coming to an End - IEA

Posted on 22 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The era of cheap oil may soon come to an end, if the prediction of the International Energy Agency, IEA, is anything to go by. The IEA said that there will be rise in oil price due mainly to unplanned outages and disruptions in places like Canada, Nigeria, and Libya.
According to the Agency, it is expected that the oil market will be balanced for the rest of the year, meaning the world will pump roughly as much oil as it consumes. That should nudge prices higher. Oil is currently trading around $50 a barrel, double the nadir reached earlier this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is $50 the new $100 for crude oil?

Posted on 21 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The near 80 per cent rebound in oil prices from their February lows has finally started to fizzle and we believe more corrections are on the cards in the near-term as some of the pillars of the price rally start to give away.
Investors were reluctant to buy at higher levels and prices could not sustain above $50 for much longer. One of the biggest factors driving the recent rally was unexpected supply outages, which pushed around 2.5-3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil out of the global market. Adding to that, the slowdown in US oil output and a weaker dollar exacerbated the price strength………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price could hit $80 in 2017

Posted on 21 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rebounding after a two-year collapse, it’s only this month that oil prices have pushed up past US$50 a barrel, but Raymond James & Associates says this is just the beginning for higher prices.
In a note to clients, analysts led by J. Marshall Adkins say West Texas Intermediate will average $80 per barrel by the end of next year — that’s higher than all but one of the 31 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. “Over the past few months, we’ve gained even more confidence that tightening global oil supply/demand dynamics will support a much higher level of oil prices in 2017,” the team says………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Price: Next Stop $20? Or $70?

Posted on 21 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Since the beginning of 2016, the oil price has been on a tear and is up by around 100% from the lows of $26 a barrel printed just a few months ago, and all the “expert” pundits seemed really bearish right as Oil hit its low.
Indeed, at time of writing both Brent and WTI are trading around the key $50 a barrel level and some analysts are now projecting that the price of black gold could head back to $70 a barrel by the end of the year. In a research report sent to clients on Monday, analysts at Raymond James laid out their case for oil to hit $70 a barrel by the end of 2016, and $80 a barrel by 2017………………………………………..Full Article: Source

With oil price near $50, resilient U.S. shale producers eye new chapter

Posted on 21 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Two years into the worst oil price rout in a generation, large and mid-sized U.S. independent producers are surviving and eyeing growth again as oil nears $50 a barrel, confounding OPEC and Saudi Arabia with their resiliency.
That shale giants Hess Corp, Apache Corp and more than 25 other companies have beaten back OPEC’s attempt to sideline them would have been unthinkable just months ago, when oil plumbed $26 a barrel and collapses were feared. To regain market share, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in late 2014 pumped more oil despite growing global oversupply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices under pressure as hedge funds adjust positions: Kemp

Posted on 21 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hedge funds cut their net long position in the main crude futures and options contracts by 63 million barrels, 10 percent, in the week to June 14, as the rally in oil prices showed signs of running out of steam.
The one-week reduction in the net long position was the largest since July 2014, according to an analysis of data published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Intercontinental Exchange. Hedge funds and other money managers cut their combined net long position in the three main Brent and WTI futures and options contracts from a near-record 633 million barrels to 570 million………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices push back above $50 a barrel as traders bet on Remain

Posted on 21 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices pushed back above the $50 a barrel mark this morning after the US dollar fell against the pound in line with speculation that Britain will remain a member of the European Union when it votes later this week. The market price for Brent crude on Friday was slightly above $49 a barrel but on Monday the market opened at $49.50 and quickly climbed to above $50 by mid morning.
The price of crude oil broke through the $50 mark for the first time this year a month ago, but fell back last week as market confidence slumped amid growing uncertainty over Brexit………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Moody’s ups oil price forecast to $40 for 2016

Posted on 20 June 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Moody’s Investors Service today revised upwards its price forecast for oil this year on the back of recent uptick in rates. “Moody’s assumes a medium-term oil price band of $40 to $60 per barrel for both WTI and Brent crude and upwardly revised its shorter-term oil price estimates for these crudes to $40 in 2016, $45 in 2017 and $50 per barrel in 2018,” the rating agency said today.
In March, Moody’s estimated oil prices to be around $33 per barrel in 2016, which will rise to $38 next year and to $43 in 2018. In a release titled ‘Moody’s: Challenging conditions for oil-related entities remain unchanged despite near-term price rebound’, the rating agency said its medium-term outlook for the sector remains unchanged………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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