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Commodities Briefing - Category | Oil more

Oil trader Vitol says market may never see $100 a barrel again

Posted on 09 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Global commodities trader Vitol has said the oil market will struggle to break above the $50 per barrel mark and may never reach the $100 price last seen in 2014. Vitol boss Ian Taylor poured doubt on hopes that the market may rebalance later this year, telling Bloomberg that prices would take far longer to recover.
Growing supply and more efficient use of fuel could change the market to the extent that it may never seen $100/b oil again, he added. “UK consumption of oil is going down; not much, but it’s going down. Efficiency in cars is going up tremendously, as it is in aeroplanes. You have to believe that there is a possibility that you will not necessarily go back above $100, you know, ever,” Taylor said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Fair price for oil is $130 & will be, despite Saudi attempts - World Bank consultant

Posted on 09 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

With oil prices at their lowest point, nations relying on oil are suffering - and it’s not just Russia and Venezuela. Even OPEC members are in trouble, despite having the power to change the balance on the market. But they have been unable to reach such an agreement - at least up until now.
With rumors of OPEC finally deciding to cut production, will the oil market rise again? And why are Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations, now being forced to cut spending, persisting in their position on the issue? We ask international an oil economist and a World Bank consultant. Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh is on Sophie&Co………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Opec needs to lift output in next 5 years to balance market: BAML

Posted on 09 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Opec needs to increase production by 4.1mn barrels per day (mbpd) in the next five years to “balance the market”, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML). Moreover, the structural shift toward a lower price environment will have “profound and long-lasting consequences” for non-Opec production, BAML said in its latest report.
Highlighting that with the US, the only country able to ramp up its production materially in non-Opec by 2020, it said Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) may have to provide the incremental barrels as demand will grow by 5.9 mbpd in 2015-20. “With the market oversupply of 1.8 mbpd in 2015, we estimate that Opec needs to increase production by 4.1 mbpd in the next five years to balance the market”, it said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s How Oil Companies Are Scrambling to Survive the Price Crash

Posted on 09 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As oil and gas companies cut ever-deeper into the bone to weather their worst downturn in decades, boards have adopted contrasting strategies to lead them out of the crisis. Crude prices have tumbled around 70% over the past 18 months to around $35 a barrel, leading to five of the world’s top oil companies reporting sharp declines in profits in recent days.
Executives at energy firms face a tough balancing act: they must cut spending to stay financially afloat while preserving the production infrastructure and capacity that will allow them to compete and grow when the market recovers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

As Big Oil shrinks, boards plot different paths out of crisis

Posted on 09 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As oil and gas companies cut ever-deeper into the bone to weather their worst downturn in decades, boards have adopted contrasting strategies to lead them out of the crisis. Crude prices have tumbled around 70 percent over the past 18 months to around $35 a barrel, leading to five of the world’s top oil companies reporting sharp declines in profits in recent days.
Executives at energy firms face a tough balancing act: they must cut spending to stay financially afloat while preserving the production infrastructure and capacity that will allow them to compete and grow when the market recovers………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran is ready to enter the oil market

Posted on 08 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh stated that now that the Western sanctions against the country have been lifted, Tehran intends to export up to 300 thousand barrels of crude oil per day to Europe.
Iran has officially announced the estimated volume of oil exports to Europe, which was the most important market for the Islamic Republic of Iran until the moment when the majority of western countries introduced restrictive measures in response to Tehran’s nuclear program in 2012. According to Zanganeh, over the next few months Iran will try to increase the total volume of oil exports to 500 thousand barrels per day due to supplies to Asian countries………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran wants euro payment for new, outstanding oil sales

Posted on 08 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iran wants to recover tens of billions of dollars it is owed by India and other buyers of its oil in euros and is billing new crude sales in euros, too, looking to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar following last month’s sanctions relief.
A source at state-owned National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) told Reuters that Iran will charge in euros for its recently signed oil contracts with firms including French oil and gas major Total, Spanish refiner Cepsa and Litasco, the trading arm of Russia’s Lukoil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

2016 growth in Saudi oil sector to remain positive

Posted on 08 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Annual growth in the Saudi oil sector will remain positive in 2016 with average oil output expected to increase slightly, as the Kingdom continues to protect its share in the oil market, according to a report. The current period of low prices is set to remain throughout 2016 pulled down primarily by persistently high oil supply, stated the report from Jadwa Investment.
“Saudi crude production averaged 10.2 million barrels per day in 2015 and we do not see any cuts in production to support upward movement in prices going forward. We therefore expect 2016 Saudi production to be unchanged, year-on-year, at 10.2 million barrels per day in 2016,” added the Jadwa economists………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi, Venezuela Oil Ministers Hold ‘Successful’ Talks on Market

Posted on 08 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he held “successful” talks with his Venezuelan counterpart about ways of cooperating to stabilize the crude market, without saying what steps producers should take to shore up prices.
The two ministers, who met on Sunday in Riyadh, discussed Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino’s recent discussions with other crude producers and the results of those meetings that seek cooperation among suppliers to bring stability to the market, the Saudi ministry said in an e-mailed statement. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, the biggest exporter, are both members of OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Does OPEC have 2020 vision? – BofA Merrill Lynch

Posted on 08 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The structural shift toward a lower price environment will have profound and long-lasting consequences for non-cartelized production. With prices recently trading below the $30/bbl mark, our expected 10 percent cut in 2016 global capex is starting to look modest.
Current production from mature fields is set to decline at higher rates as maintenance capex has been cut too. Net, we now expect total non-OPEC supply to decrease to 56.4 mn b/d in 2017 before rebounding to 57.5 mn b/d in 2020, near 2015 output levels………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Royal Dutch Shell boss predicts rebound in oil price

Posted on 05 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global oil market will rebalance later this year, paving the way for a recovery in crude prices from their lowest level in more than a decade, according to Royal Dutch Shell’s chief executive.
Striking a bullish stance as the Anglo-Dutch oil company reported an 80 per cent slide in profits last year, Ben van Beurden argued on Thursday that the “unprecedented” volatility in oil prices did not reflect fundamental supply and demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

You won’t see $70 oil until 2018: Morgan Stanley

Posted on 05 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Morgan Stanley has downgraded its outlook for oil prices, expecting low prices to persist for longer than previously thought as the supply and demand imbalance looks set to continue for at least another two years.
The bank lowered its average 2016 Brent price forecast to $30 per barrel, down from $49 previously. Morgan Stanley now expects an average price of $40 per barrel in 2017 as oversupply persists, before climbing past $50 by the end the year to average $70 by 2018………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russia and the Saudis: A 10-billion barrel game of oil bluff

Posted on 05 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

As oil prices continue to cause market uncertainty, and with low fuel prices wreaking havoc on some countries’ economies, notably Russia’s, the world’s top oil producer has been at the forefront of trying to figure out whether or not a production cut should be implemented in order to support and stabilize prices.
An Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) delegate recently said, “It is all in the hands of the Russians now.” Oil production in Russia hit a post-Soviet high in January, which means Russia is adding fuel to the oversupplied oil market fire. Russia itself is sending mixed signals as to how much it’s willing to cooperate with geopolitical foes, like Saudi Arabia………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia Cuts Prices

Posted on 05 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia on Thursday cut prices for its best-quality crude oil destined for customers in Europe and Asia amid uncertainty about whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet to discuss action to raise oil prices.
The move to lower prices would help the world’s largest exporter of crude defend its most lucrative markets against encroachment from rival producers such as Iran, which is ramping up its output now that Western sanctions have been lifted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Secret Opec talks that raised oil price - will it happen again?

Posted on 05 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

After a year of secret diplomacy and hushed-up talks around the world, Opec’s Saudi Arabia and rival Venezuela were persuaded to cut a deal by non-Opec Mexico that eased the acrimony and led to a much-needed rise in oil prices.
It was 1998, trust had long broken down within Opec and it took outside mediation as a last resort to stop the squabbling to clinch deals at secret meetings in Riyadh, Madrid and Miami. Now, with oil prices touching their lowest level since 2003, Opec officials and deal-brokers are looking back nearly two decades and asking whether a behind-the-scenes deal to curb oil output between Opec and non-Opec Russia could be struck………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members

Posted on 05 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Representatives of 6 member-states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are ready to participate in an emergency meeting on coordinated reduction of oil production with non-OPEC members, Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino said during his visit to Tehran on Thursday.
According to the minister, such OPEC member-states as Iraq, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Iran and Venezuela as well as non-OPEC members Oman and Russia have given their consent. “The idea is not only to hold the meeting but to reach particular results,” he was cited as saying by Iran’s news agency Shana………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Here’s What Oil and Gas’s Ugly 2015 Did to Business Investment

Posted on 04 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

In the final quarter of 2014, business investment related to oil, gas and other mining hit an all-time high. One year later, that’s dropped by more than half. It’s the second-biggest yearlong drop in inflation-adjusted investment seen by any of the major categories in more than 50 years. (Which is how long we’ve had comparable data.)
Even by standards set by previous swings in the relatively small, volatile mining and gas sector, this one’s a humdinger. Mining and petroleum is one of the smallest categories of business investment, especially after that brutal four-quarter stretch lopped off half its size, but it has still caused some of the biggest swings in the distribution of business investment in the modern era………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Could current oil prices be the new normal?

Posted on 04 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

True to form, no sooner have sanctions been lifted then Tehran has moved to decisively ramp up energy production, the lifeblood of its struggling economy.
While it will take some months for the Islamic Republic to meet its ambitious goal of increasing oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), there is little doubt that it will eventually get there, further exacerbating the present over-supply of energy that has so dramatically driven world-wide prices down………………………………………..Full Article: Source

One sign that oil is losing its hold over markets

Posted on 04 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Is crude oil becoming old news? A particular currency seems to be suggesting so, says one strategist. On Tuesday, Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management noted that the correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil has been weakening, a sign that oil’s influence over markets may be coming to an end.
Since oil accounts for a major part of Canada’s exports, the country’s currency tends to trade in tandem with the price of crude oil. Earlier this year, Schlossberg declared that everything from stocks to currencies were taking cues from crude oil’s wild swings………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Could Russia and OPEC really strike a deal on oil?

Posted on 04 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Rumors of a Russia-OPEC deal on curbing production has offered oil prices some much needed relief, with prices surging again on Wednesday on further hints of a meeting.
However, the messages have been mixed: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested on Wednesday Russia was open to a meeting with the oil-producing cartel. But comments from Russia’s representative to OPEC said that it was unlikely the group would meet with Russia anytime soon, according to Russian news agency Interfax Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price crash: Markets slump as Opec resists Russian calls for emergency meeting

Posted on 03 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Moscow’s foreign minister says Russia is ready to talk as country’s oil production reaches post-Cold War era high. Divisions between the world’s major oil producers were laid bare on Tuesday as markets dismissed the prospect of an emergency Opec meeting to cut production levels.
Forward contracts for Brent crude fell by as much as 4.5pc to $32.70 a barrel, despite comments from Russia’s foreign minister that Moscow was ready to “cooperate” with its rivals to halt an 18-month price rout………………………………………..Full Article: Source

No trust between OPEC, other oil producers

Posted on 03 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC won’t be able to agree with other oil suppliers on decreasing oil prices, as there is no trust between the sides, and each of the parties will play by its own rules, believes Svyatoslav Pavlyuk, a Ukrainian expert on energy efficiency.
Pavlyuk, who heads the Kiev office of the ‘Energy Efficient Cities of Ukraine’ Association, told Trend Feb. 2 that oil producers began to supply oil at low prices in order to take additional market segments. “Thus, market shares have been violated, and other oil suppliers will fight for them by reciprocally lowering the prices,” added Pavlyuk………………………………………..Full Article: Source

No decision yet on OPEC, non-OPEC meeting, some in OPEC skeptical

Posted on 03 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC has not yet scheduled any talks with Russia and other non-OPEC countries aimed at supporting oil prices, two OPEC delegates said on Tuesday after Russian officials talked up potential cooperation with the exporter group.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was open to further cooperation in the oil market with OPEC and non-OPEC countries. The prospect of supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and rivals has helped oil prices rise above $32 a barrel from a 12-year low close to $27 last month, despite widespread scepticism that a deal will happen………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russia is now China’s biggest oil partner — and it’s a huge problem for Saudi Arabia

Posted on 03 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia has long trumped Russia in the Chinese oil market. The Saudi share of Chinese crude imports at the beginning of the decade was about 20%, while Russia’s was below 7%, according to data cited by RBC Capital Markets.
But now the Russians are creeping in — and the Saudis are getting nervous. “Russia is the biggest rival to the Saudis in the single-largest oil demand growth country in the world,” RBC Capital Markets’ commodity strategist Michael Tran wrote………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil could double despite OPEC supply flood

Posted on 03 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Plunging oil prices — down more than 30% in the past year — have been the primary contributing factor to the S&P 500’s worst start of the year since 2009, with January clocking in a 5.1% decline. And with crude plunging below $30 again Tuesday, investors are still looking for clues as to when we’ll see a bottom.
While oil’s impact on the economy remains debated, the commodity is unquestionaingly affecting not only the indices but also a range of economic fundamentals from industrial production to earnings and credit………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The Science (Or Art) Of Forecasting Oil Prices

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The past few years have greatly encouraged those who consider oil price forecasters to be little more than astrologers (on a good day), but there are some basic lessons that tend to be overlooked amidst all the noise and confusion.
It doesn’t help that today’s news cycle requires constant commentary on oil price movements, as well as predictions short- and long-term, nor that free publicity is available, particularly to those willing to make the most extreme predictions. In fact, a most reasonable forecast can garner attention if the possibility of an extreme movement is included—and it will get the attention………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia ready to manage oil market but all must cooperate

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia is ready to manage the oil market under the condition that “everybody must cooperate”, from OPEC members to other oil producers outside the exporting group, the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper cited an OPEC source as saying.
“It is still early to talk about holding an OPEC emergency meeting, especially since the amount of crude that Iran would pump into the markets after lifting the sanctions is still unknown. That will not be entirely clear before at least two months from now,” al-Hayat quoted the OPEC source as saying on Monday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran’s return to oil market overestimated

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iran’s return to the global oil market, as well as its consequences for the global prices is overestimated, Cyril Widdershoven, Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst believes. They [Iran] have around 30 million barrels at sea, which is based on 500,000 barrels per day an extra volume in market for around 60 days.
This is not enough to really force markets totally down,” Widdershoven told Trend. Expert believes that the further increase in the country’s oil production will take another 3-5 years, as the financial instruments and necessary technology are not available at this time………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The US bet big on American oil and now the whole global economy is paying the price

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil has wrong-footed our leading experts—again. At the beginning of 2014, the world was marveling in surprise as the US returned as a petroleum superpower, a role it had relinquished in the early 1970s. It was pumping so much oil and gas that experts foresaw a new American industrial renaissance, with trillions of dollars in investment and millions of new jobs.
Two years later, faces are aghast as the same oil has instead unleashed world-class havoc: Just a month into the new year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 5.5%. Japan’s Nikkei has dropped 8%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 is 6.4% lower. The blood on the floor even includes fuel-dependent industries that logic suggests should be prospering, such as airlines………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil Prices Drop as Chances Fade for Output Cuts

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices gave back a big chunk of last week’s gains, with traders losing hope that the world’s big producers will cut their output and that Asia’s economies can help drive demand. The market had shot to a three-week high late last week on speculation of increasing economic stimulus, and cooperation on output cuts between Russia and OPEC.
But many leaders of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are actively damping expectations for cuts. New data also suggests U.S. output is still resilient and the Chinese manufacturing sector is still contracting………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Cramer: Keep an eye on oil prices

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil prices are pushing stocks lower as investors looked to move on from a dismal January, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday. “The inventory numbers are still too large. I don’t see any real demand at the $34-$35 level,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.”
U.S. oil inventories increased by 8.4 million barrels from Jan 18. to Jan. 22, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration. U.S. crude futures fell nearly 5 percent during the first trading session of February. U.S. stocks followed suit, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling more than 75 points in midmorning trading………………………………………..Full Article: Source

No decision yet on any OPEC, non-OPEC meeting: sources

Posted on 02 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC and non-OPEC countries have not yet agreed to hold a meeting to discuss action to support oil prices, two OPEC delegates said on Monday, nearly a week after Russian officials said Moscow should talk to OPEC.
In addition, a decision on whether to hold a standalone gathering of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as proposed by Venezuela has yet to be taken, the delegates said, but a number of countries have responded coolly to the idea. OPEC delegates said last week a gathering of OPEC and non-OPEC oil officials could take place in February or March, perhaps at an expert rather than ministerial level………………………………………..Full Article: Source

How Is China Driving Down Commodities?

Posted on 01 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities right now are certainly the place not to be. Commodity markets today are characterized by a triple whammy of overcapacity, overleverage and low profitability. Prices have reflected as much, tanking across the board in the last year, with much of the blame attributed to China’s slowdown as well as the supply glut.
China has proven to be one of (if not the) most important driver of commodities today. As China soared in the early 2000s on the back of rapid industrialization, so did commodities. Construction projects began rolling out to modernize infrastructure and urbanize, which drove demand for metals such as copper and steel. So began the new phase of the commodity supercycle………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em

Posted on 01 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The game being played in the global oil market today bears more than a passing resemblance to poker. Nobody wants to quit while they’re losing. That is important for investors to keep in mind as they ponder what have become almost daily spikes and drops in the price of crude. So, too, is the role of Saudi Arabia in the game.
It remains within Saudi Arabia’s ability to foster at least a partial recovery in crude prices on its own. A sharp rally in prices last Thursday morning was based on comments from Russia’s energy minister that the Saudis might get the ball rolling on 5% output cuts. That was quickly refuted and oil gave up much of the gains………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia will cooperate on oil output, didn’t propose production cut, says Arabiya

Posted on 01 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Saudi Arabia wants to cooperate with other oil producers to support the oil market, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television reported on Sunday, quoting an unnamed Saudi source.
The source also told the Dubai-based satellite channel that the kingdom was not the source of a proposal to cut production that Russia was studying. Russia said on Thursday that OPEC had proposed oil production cuts of up to 5 percent in what would be the first global deal in over a decade to help reduce a glut of crude and prop up sinking prices………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The ugly side of slumping oil prices

Posted on 01 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For a long time, a no-brainer strategy to beat the market was to simply track how the US dollar was doing. Stock prices would shoot up whenever the greenback wobbled, and turn weak at the knees if the US dollar strengthened.
While that relationship continues to hold true to some extent - at least superficially - it has been superseded by another even more powerful correlation: the influence which oil prices seem to be wielding over the world’s financial markets right now………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price gains amid Opec, Russia meeting speculation

Posted on 01 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil capped a second weekly gain amid speculation that Opec and Russia will meet to discuss trimming crude production to bolster prices. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that while Opec member Venezuela proposed a meeting next month, nothing is scheduled.
Russia, after months of insisting it was happy to keep pumping at full throttle, suggested in recent comments it is open to compromise with Opec. Equities climbed as the Bank of Japan’s unexpected monetary stimulus boosted confidence that central banks remain vigilant for slowing economic growth……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Venezuela Tries to Convince Oil Nations to Cut Production

Posted on 01 February 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino faces an uphill battle persuading Russia and Saudi Arabia to cooperate in cutting oil production amid a supply glut that has pushed prices down more than 30 percent in the past year, according to analysts Robin Mills and Edward Bell.
Concern that U.S. shale producers would benefit from any increase in oil prices following a potential cut is one factor that will keep Saudi Arabia and Russia from agreeing to a reduction in output, according to Mills, chief executive officer of Dubai-based oil consultant Qamar Energy, and Bell, commodities analyst at lender Emirates NBD PJSC………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russia Comments Tease Oil Market Eager for Any Glimmer of Hope

Posted on 29 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For a few minutes, at least, there was a glimmer of hope for the world’s struggling oil producers. After months of opposing any production cuts, Russia said on Thursday it would be willing to discuss output levels with OPEC — opening the door for a deal with Saudi Arabia to revive oil prices hovering at $30 a barrel.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged nearly 8 percent to $35.84 a barrel almost immediately. But the joy for oil producers — and some traders — was short-lived, and the price slid back to $34. Within minutes, OPEC delegates said they knew nothing about a potential meeting with Russia next month, let alone output cuts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

IMF, World Bank move to forestall oil-led defaults

Posted on 29 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Officials from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are heading to Azerbaijan to discuss a possible $US4 billion ($5.7 billion) emergency loan package in what risks becoming the first of a series of bailouts stemming from the tumbling oil price.
The Baku visit, which follows a currency crisis triggered by the collapse in crude, comes amid concern at the two global institutions over emerging market producers from central Asia to Latin America. The fund and the bank have also been monitoring developments in other oil-producing countries such as Brazil, which is now mired in its worst recession in more than a century, and Ecuador………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Iran says low oil prices will not last long

Posted on 29 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Thursday that oil prices would not stay low for long as producers restore market balance. “The price of oil is at a low level … I don’t think it will last in the long term … The pressure on oil-producing nations means balance will be restored in the short term,” Rouhani, whose country is the third-largest producer in OPEC, said at the French Institute of International Relations.
Pragmatist Rouhani arrived in France on Wednesday on the second leg of a state visit to Europe after three days in Italy. Iran is pushing to boost oil exports now that international sanctions against it have been lifted………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudi Arabia well equipped to sustain oil market share

Posted on 29 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

OPEC’s oil production is expected to rise by a further 500,000 barrels per day by Q4 2016 year-on-year, according to a report released by Jadwa Investment. It said that the current period of low prices is set to remain throughout 2016, pulled down primarily as a result of persistently high oil supply.
All-out competition between members of OPEC will be the main reason for continued oversupplied markets. But Saudi Arabia remains well equipped to hold off any attempts of encroachment on its market share since it is currently the only major oil producer with spare oil production capacity, Jadwa economists added………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Hopes For An Oil Price Recovery Appear Exaggerated

Posted on 29 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The new debate in petroleum markets appears to be over when prices will recover and to what level. When the price was $100 a barrel, many argued that any drop would be only temporary because higher costs had put a new, higher floor under prices.
And before that, the argument was that the market had entered a “new paradigm” where strong demand in countries like China would be bumping up against the “end of easy/cheap oil” and keep pressure on prices to rise. These arguments were all very appealing and eventually became widespread, as persistently high prices quieted most of the voices that argued for caution………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Believe it or not, oil is back in a bull market

Posted on 29 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It may have been wrong to call oil’s rise a dead cat bounce last week. Everyone’s favorite cratering commodity has actually been having a pretty good run since Jan. 20. Brent crude today (Jan. 28) rose above $35 per barrel for the first time in about three weeks on news that OPEC and Russia might finally curtail their contribution to the overproduction that has the world awash in oil.
That was enough to technically put oil in a bull market, trading at 20% higher than its recent lows. Spurring today’s rally: Reuters is reporting that Russia’s oil minister said Saudi Arabia proposed cutting production by 5%………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price: ‘we’re going to see more fireworks’

Posted on 28 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Oil has steadied at a still-low $31 a barrel, with a major report on US inventories due later. The oil price endured wild swings on Tuesday, rising more than six per cent at one point to above $32 a barrel and touching session lows below $29.
Both the international and US benchmarks are extremely volatile at the moment as the determination of many analysts that painfully low and loss-making prices must soon turn higher runs up against stubborn negative sentiment on excess supplies. A sustained recovery remains unlikely until there is at least some movement from larger producers on output………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Crude oil price to surpass $100 US by 2040, National Energy Board says

Posted on 28 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The National Energy Board says crude oil prices are projected to rise to more than $100 US a barrel by 2040. Peter Watson, the board’s chairman and CEO, says in a prepared text of a speech that the regulator is taking a long-term view of the country’s energy future in a report.
Watson, who is set to speak before the Toronto Region Board of Trade, says the outlook is a challenging undertaking given the current, uncertain economic environment. Since mid-2014, the global price of crude has fallen about $80 US a barrel down to about $30 US a barrel………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank and Credit Suisse slash oil price forecast for 2016

Posted on 28 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Both the World Bank and Credit Suisse recently reduced its oil price forecast for 2016. This is amid increasing supply of oil and low demand prospects from emerging markets.
While the Washington-based institution forecast crude oil prices at $37 (£26, €34) a barrel for 2016 by using an average of Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices equally weighted, Credit Suisse projected that Brent will average $36.25 a barrel and WTI Crude will trade at a premium of $1.50 to Brent in 2016………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Saudis battle for oil market supremacy

Posted on 28 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

By abandoning the tight rein it held for decades on the oil market, OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia launched a battle for control that sent crude prices plummeting. It has been a painful fight, experts say, but with its vast resources the Gulf kingdom is showing no signs of giving up.
The huge drop in oil prices since mid-2014, from more than $110 a barrel to around $30, followed a decision by the Saudi-influenced Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries not to cut output as it had in the past to keep prices high………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Russians want to talk to OPEC about output, pipeline chief says

Posted on 28 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Russian officials have decided they should talk to Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries about output cuts to bolster oil prices, the head of Russia’s pipeline monopoly said on Wednesday, remarks that helped spur a sharp rise in world prices.
Oil futures surged more than 5 percent after the comments by Nikolai Tokarev, head of oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, which gave the strongest hint yet of possible cooperation between the top non-OPEC oil producer and the cartel to try to reverse a record glut………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil prices to stay near current level throughout 2016, World Bank says

Posted on 27 January 2016 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bank forecast plays down likelihood of further collapse with average price of oil expected to stabilise below $40 a barrel. The World Bank has slashed its forecast for oil prices this year, saying the cost of a barrel of crude will stay near its current lows for the rest of 2016.
The Washington-based institution said a glut of oil that sent prices crashing by almost half last year and another 27% this month will continue to dominate the market for the next year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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