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Commodities Briefing - Category | Commodity Crisis more

China won’t cause a commodity crash (yet)

Posted on 22 November 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Edward Morse at Citi (via Business Insider) has made a bearish call on the commodity supercycle based on a slowing Chinese economy and re-balancing growth away from infrastructure spending toward the consumer.
I beg to differ. The secular commodity bull cycle is not ending this cycle, but in the next downturn. That’s because the new leadership are not reformers, and these “princelings” are showing little inclination to re-balance growth away from SOEs and big ticket projects, where many of the elites made their money, toward the household sector, which would benefit the Chinese economy longer term but would gore the CCP cadres’ ox………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bullish bets on commodities slide on slowdown fears

Posted on 30 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Speculators lowered bullish wagers on commodities for the third straight week, the longest streak since April, as prices erased this year’s gain on mounting concern about slowing economic growth.
Hedge funds cut net-long positions across 18 US futures and options by 0.2% to 1.18 million contracts in the week ended October 23, the lowest since July 24, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Copper holdings fell the most in seven weeks, and sugar wagers dropped to a one-month low. Bullish bets on gold slumped the most in three months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Protect against a commodities meltdown

Posted on 30 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Booming growth in developing markets, coupled with inflationary money-printing in the U.S. and Europe, helped fuel a bull market in commodities for a dozen years. Today, though, Wall Street is flashing a yellow light: Commodity bugs had better scoot to avoid being squashed by the global slowdown.
“The secular bull market in commodities is done,” says Jeff Weniger, senior investment analyst at Harris Private Bank. “Finished. Kaput.” Don’t let the recent rise in prices for oil (partly caused by unrest in the Middle East) and corn (the drought in the Midwest) fool you………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China economy ‘clearly’ suffers, SocGen’s commodities chief says

Posted on 17 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s economy is suffering as crisis in the developed economies begins to have a “knock-on effect” on the emerging markets, said Jonathan Whitehead, the global head of commodities markets at Societe Generale SA. (GLE).
“Clearly, China is suffering,” Whitehead said. “To what extent, we don’t know.” While outlook for commodities markets used to be defined by China’s economic growth, it now also largely depends on the developments in Europe, he said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities at risk as Euro crisis jitters threaten sentiment trends

Posted on 11 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices appear vulnerable to risk aversion driven by rising Eurozone sovereign stress. The Fed’s Beige Book is in focus on the economic calendar. Commodities came under pressure overnight as broad-based risk aversion plays out across financial markets.
The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.8 percent. Newswires cited guidance in the third-quarter earnings report from Alcoa Inc as the catalyst for the dour mood. While the leading aluminum producer’s results beat analysts’ estimates after adjusting for a handful of special items, its forward guidance warned of the dangers posed by a slowdown in China and carried a downgrade in the outlook for demand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Trading the commodity slump

Posted on 10 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

It could be due to mild dollar strength or outside market influence, but we’ve seen a number of declines in the commodity sector in recent weeks and months. I’m going to jump around to some of the major commodities, identify their moves of late and opine on whether they’re likely to continue heading south.
In the energy complex, crude oil has traded down from the $100-per-barrel level, shedding just over $10, or 10%. This move has happened within the last three weeks and, in my eyes, prices could see an additional $3 to $5 of deprecation before this leg is complete………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity weakness doesn’t have to hit currencies

Posted on 09 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When investors aren’t worrying about euro-zone survival, employment growth in the U.S., what Israel may be planning for Iran or what Iran may be planning for the Strait of Hormuz, they worry about the end of the commodity boom.
As realization slowly dawns that even China isn’t insatiable, and that slowing old economies eventually mean slowing new economies too, the currencies that benefited most from rising commodity prices attract ever more jaundiced scrutiny. Every week another ‘is the game up for the Australian dollar?’ piece appears, with metronomic regularity, from one analyst’s cloister or another………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities may fall on euro belt-tightening

Posted on 01 October 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities are on the upswing in early trade amid a broad-based advance in risk appetite as traders encouraged by yesterday’s release of an ambitious Spanish budget await a similar result from France. Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices are following shares higher while gold and silver are buoyed by ebbing haven demand for the US dollar.
Optimism may be fleeting however. Economists expect Paris will run a deficit equivalent to 4.6% percent of GDP this year, the highest among the core members of the euro zone. This means President Francois Hollande and company may be forced to press on with tax hikes and/or spending cuts, both of which would compound headwinds for already anemic growth………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Commodities drop on demand concerns amid Europe discord on debt

Posted on 25 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Jonathan BarrattCommodities fell, heading for the first monthly decline since May, as discord over Europe’s debt crisis and fading business optimism in China pointed to a deeper slowdown that may reduce demand for energy, metals and grains.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell 0.9 percent to settle at 657.68 at 4 p.m. New York time, led by cocoa, silver and aluminum. The gauge slid 4.4 percent last week, the most since June 1, and has dropped 2.6 percent this month………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Central banks push, but commodities slide

Posted on 24 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Not to be left out, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week announced its own new version of monetary stimulus, although the move is relatively mild compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE3. The BoJ is increasing current asset purchases from 45 trillion yen to just 55 trillion yen (an increase equal to about $127 billion dollars).
Japan’s central bank is attempting to decrease the value of the yen, which has been rising since March. Unfortunately for Japanese exporters, the effect so far has been fleeting. In the first chart, you can see the overnight reaction to the easing announcement………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Commodities: US drought threatens volatility for next 12 months

Posted on 21 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Blu PutnamThe worst US drought in 50 years has sent commodity prices in grain and livestock to record highs, and in spite of a drop-back in prices, traders say volatility is to be expected for as much as another year. As of September 4, the soya bean price was up 32% and that for corn up 45% since the end of May.
The effects are not only being felt in ethanol production and livestock feed. According to farmers in the western states, large numbers of horses are dying as pastures are completely dry and ranchers cannot afford to buy hay at present prices. “People don’t realize how bad it is because horses are not part of the food chain, but the drought has resulted in a lot of animals just starving to death,” says one farmer………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China slump hits commodities; GDP growth vital:SocGen

Posted on 21 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Patrick Legland, global head- research, Societe Generale, explains that the slowdown in China will certainly have an adverse effect on commodities. He adds that though European economies reduced deficit significantly, the growth in GDP which is essential to reduce debt, remained anemic and negative.
Globally, the economic indicators have been poor. The PMI in Europe was very poor. Asia is very weak as well. Clearly investors are back in the doldrums on nickel due to economic inflows. So, right now there is certainly a break in the rally………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Financial investment causing commodity price volatility: UN report

Posted on 20 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Financial investment is having a much greater impact on the prices of commodities like oil than underlying supply and demand of the commodity, causing price volatility and allowing prices to become removed from the fundamentals for long periods of time, according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
This has effectively transformed commodity markets into financial markets and demands a “strong and prompt policy and regulatory response,” UNCTAD said……………………………………….Full Article: Source

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Volatile commodities may need intervention-U.N.

Posted on 19 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Governments should let regulators step into commodity markets to pop price bubbles, prevent crashes and combat powerful financial investors, a U.N. report showed on Tuesday, a day after a sudden oil price plunge baffled traders.
Financial players such as hedge funds and high-frequency traders are to blame for increased volatility in commodity prices and urgent action should be taken to increase transparency and boost regulators’ powers, the paper said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

End of commodity boom may be good for Australia

Posted on 12 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Have Australians got it wrong by bemoaning what’s been called the end of the commodities boom, which may turn out to be another bit of good fortune for the nation known as the lucky country? The decision to cut capital spending by Fortescue Metals Group, probably the country’s most bullish iron ore miner, has been viewed as another nail, if not the final one, in the coffin of the once-in-a-generation resources extravaganza.
News that the economy expanded 3.7% in the year ended June 30 wasn’t enough to temper the feeling that Australia’s best days may be behind it, especially given the leverage of the economy to the now slowing Chinese giant………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Commodity rout is no global financial crisis moment

Posted on 06 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Just to get you into the right mood for what follows, here’s one forecast for commodity prices at the end of next year. Copper at $US5000 a tonne (against $US7635 at Tuesday’s close on the London Metal Exchange), lead $US1500/tonne ($US1995 on Tuesday), nickel $US13,500/tonne (US$15,950 now), tin $US17,500/tonne ($US19,625 now) and zinc down from $US1877/tonne on Tuesday to $US1450 in December next year.
The good news in these predictions from Capital Economics in London is that the declines as forecast would be nowhere near as bad as in the GFC, but that may be seen as scant comfort………………………………………Full Article: Source

Why commodity prices will collapse by 2015

Posted on 06 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we still have a very long way to go.
There are four reasons why I expect prices to drop a lot more.  First, during the last decade commodity producers were caught by surprise by the surge in demand.  Their belated response was to ramp up production dramatically, but since there is a long lead-time between intention and supply, for the next several years we will continue to experience rapid growth in supply………………………………………Full Article: Source

Will Australia face a commodities price crisis?

Posted on 05 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Australia has rode out the economic crisis storm fairly well over the past few years, but will the recent decrease in commodities prices be its downfall? If we put aside for one moment the RBA’s use of the concept of trend growth -proof in itself that Australia has escaped many of the effects of the credit crunch era so far!- we see that she saw an expansion in her commodity sector in the first part of 2012.
Expanding into a possible slow down has its own dangers and regular readers of this blog will be aware that one of Australia’s main customers China is slowing down. Only this weekend we received news that even the official Chinese purchasing managers index is now showing a contraction………………………………………Full Article: Source

Barclays makes GBP500mln out of global food crisis

Posted on 03 September 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barclays has made as much as half a billion pounds in two years from speculating on food staples such as wheat and soya, prompting allegations that banks are profiting handsomely from the global food crisis.
Barclays is the UK bank with the greatest involvement in food commodity trading and is one of the three biggest global players, along with the US banking giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, research from the World Development Movement points out………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Time to have a plan for the next commodities bust

Posted on 24 August 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The global financial crisis created its fair share of villains. But it also produced a few superstars, those who saw the crash coming, bet accordingly and made a fortune.
People like Michael Burry, David Einhorn, and Canada’s own Prem Watsa saw their material and reputational worth skyrocket as a result of immensely contrarian investment decisions they made linked to the credit crisis………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rising soft commodity prices pose threat to European companies

Posted on 15 August 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Bioenergy companies and protein producers will be the main victims among EMEA corporates from record soft commodity prices, ratings company Fitch warned Tuesday.
The ratings agency attributes soaring prices to the worst U.S. drought in decades, which is ongoing, ravaging both the corn and soybean crops alike as they undergo a crucial pollination phase, when moisture has the greatest effect on eventual yields………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global food reserves falling as drought wilts crops: Commodities

Posted on 09 August 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Barack ObamaStockpiles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents, raising food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near-record $1.24 trillion.
Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soybeans and rice will drop 1.8 percent to a four-year low before harvests in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Crops in the U.S., the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops and India’s monsoon rainfall already is 20 percent below normal. The International Grains Council began July by forecasting record harvests. It ended with a prediction for a 2 percent drop in output………………………………………..Full Article: Source

US drought impacts global food security

Posted on 09 August 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Shenggen FanThe United States is the leading producer of corn and soybeans – two commodities that developing countries rely on. However, over the past two months, prices have risen sharply as the U.S. experiences its worst drought since the 1950s. A food policy expert says effectively responding to the drought can help prevent another global food crisis
More than half the United States is experiencing the dual problems of too little rain and temperatures that are too high. Shenggen Fan, head of the International Food Policy Research Institute, said that’s not only driving up prices, but contributing to price volatility as well………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China July commodity imports likely fell sharply

Posted on 09 August 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China’s metal imports are likely to fall sharply in July as a seasonal lull in the construction season has coincided with a broad economic slowdown and a lack of opportunities to profit from trade arbitrage.
China is the world’s largest buyer of key industrial commodities and its order book is an important indicator of global demand. Customs officials will release July data Friday. Imports of iron ore, China’s largest class of metal imports by value, are likely to continue sliding after an 8.7% decline in June from May………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Is the commodities boom over?

Posted on 30 July 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world’s economy is passing through a low growth environment and this is in stark contrast to the first half of the last decade, when we had a global boom. Today, Europe is on the brink of recession, the US economy is growing at only 2% per year and it appears as though China is facing a major slowdown.
Given these circumstances, we are of the view that the prices of natural resources will struggle to retain last decade’s momentum. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities may weaken on fading QE3 bets

Posted on 17 July 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices are correcting lower in early European trade after Friday’s sharp rebound in risk appetite. Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices followed share prices higher while gold and silver found a de-facto boost as the safe-haven US Dollar retraced downward.
A quiet economic calendar in Europe turns traders’ attention to the US docket. Expectations call for narrow improvement in the Empire Manufacturing gauge - the first of July’s regional activity surveys to hit the tape - while Retail Sales snap a two-month losing streak to post a narrow gain in June………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Commodities sink as global slowdown fears grip financial markets

Posted on 13 July 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices are trading sharply lower as risk aversion grips financial markets amid worries about slowing economic growth after minutes from June’s FOMC meeting failed to advance expectations of a QE3 program to be unveiled in the near term.
The Bank of Japan likewise disappointed on the stimulus front, opted to reshuffl e funds between the credit-loan and asset-purchase programs instead of expanding accommodative measures………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Good news in falling commodities

Posted on 11 July 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices have fallen in the last few weeks; the S&P/GSCI, an index of commodity prices, is down by 10 per cent in US dollar terms since the end of April. Whether that’s good or bad for equities depends largely on your time horizon.
Theory linking shraes and commodities is ambiguous. The good news is that lower commodity prices raise the disposable incomes of commodity users; they are, in economic jargon, a positive supply shock. The bad news is that they can be a signal of weaker global demand for commodities and hence of weaker world output………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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As China slows, commodities shudder

Posted on 02 July 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Indications that China’s economy is beginning to flag more than expected could be a nasty thorn in the side of the commodities sector as hopes for the global economy weaken, analysts said.
China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial commodities like copper and iron ore and the second-thirstiest oil consumer after the U.S., has long been viewed as the white knight of the commodity markets………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Bear market in commodities a risk for equities

Posted on 25 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities are now in a bear market – and they could have further to fall. Economic data last week from around the world have dampened the demand outlook for basic resources.
China’s export order sentiment is at its lowest point since the start of 2009, business activity in the eurozone has shrunk for five consecutive months and US manufacturing is growing at its slowest rate in 11 months………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodity wrap: Europe debt crisis casts a shadow

Posted on 11 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities continued their losing streak amid a worsening of the European situation and no cues on another stimulus package.
Commodities slumped after data showed that trade in Germany contracted and Spain’s credit rating was lowered. Even the rate cut in China, the world’s largest commodity consumer, was not enough to improve sentiment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

End of the commodity boom is no disaster

Posted on 06 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The recent hype surrounding commodity economies from Australia to Brazil has been stoked by outlandish rationales for why the spike in commodity prices over the last decade represented a permanent upward shift—a high-speed edition of the “new normal.”
The case for rising commodity prices builds from the assumption that demand from emerging markets will continue to rise as it did in the last decade, but that wave has already broken up. China, Brazil, India and Russia are slowing………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Implications of weakening Chinese commodity demand

Posted on 01 June 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Through sustained rampant growth, China has forged itself a place as an economic powerhouse in the international community. Typifying this trend, the past 10 years saw annual real GDP growth in China consistently range between roughly 9% and 14%. However, few, if any, economies can sustain such growth forever.
Today, we believe China stands at the precipice of a major economic inflection………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Prices for most commodities fall on questions about demand as Europe’s economic woes linger

Posted on 31 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Europe’s financial troubles have cast a pall across the commodities market, which trades basic materials that are used in everything from housing and vehicles to food.
Most commodities prices fell Wednesday after a fresh wave of poor economic news from Europe lent more weight to fears that the region’s slowdown will hurt future demand around the world………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities sink as market-wide risk appetite unravels anew

Posted on 31 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodity prices are trading sharply lower as risk aversion grips financial markets. Sentiment-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are following stocks lower while gold and silver face de-facto selling pressure as haven flows boost the US Dollar.
The dour mood began to take shape in Asiaafter ratings agency Egan Jones downgraded Spain while state-run media outlet Xinhua reported that China was not planning an aggressive round of stimulus to combat this year’s growth slowdown………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China slowdown threatens commodity demand

Posted on 21 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

This past week saw a plethora of information affecting the various markets we follow and report on — not the least of these was concern that China. The world’s largest consumer of raw materials and products was reportedly experiencing an economic slowdown.
Another factor was the ongoing Greek debt crisis which developed into the question of whether or not Greece would leave the euro currency. This would create serious problems for the Eurozone as billions were already pumped into Greece to forestall or, in our opinion, delay the inevitable default………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Commodities take a tumble: A crisis of excess

Posted on 17 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Commodities have taken a miserable tumble as a combination of forces act in synchrony and weigh down on global prices. On the one hand you have an unresolved Greek debt crisis to which there seems no end.
President Karolos Papoulias has only today announced that Greece will yet again return to elections. It gives rise to the very serious possibility that Greece will indeed exit from the Euro-zone, a scenario few would have envisaged no less than a month ago………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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Why China’s slowdown could be good for US, Europe

Posted on 15 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Frederic NeumannChina’s economy may be on track to grow at its slowest pace in a decade, but there’s a silver lining to this: lower commodity prices may actually benefit the U.S. and Europe, just when they most need it.
“The U.S. might not be in too bad a shape because it would benefit form cheaper commodity and oil prices,” Frederic Neumann, HSBC’s Co-Head of Asian Economic Research said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Asia Pacific region faces commodity price volatility

Posted on 14 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Asia-Pacific faces another year of slowing growth as demand for its exports falls in developed countries and capital cost rises, according to latest United Nations projections, which nonetheless show optimism as the region will remain the anchor of global economic stability.
Commodity price volatility with the long term outlook of an upward trend is another major concern for the region, says the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2012: Pursing shared prosperity in an era of turbulence and high commodity prices, the flagship publication of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), which is based in Bangkok, Thailand………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Commodities headed for a fall, says Noble-Nesbitt

Posted on 04 May 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Deryck Noble-Nesbitt, Citywire A-rated smaller companies manager at Close Brothers, says he is avoiding commodity stocks and looking to cash-rich AIM companies.
China’s economic growth is slowing and government plans to sustain development though consumer spending are underway. However, the revision of the country’s path to success, away from the infrastructure boom and export market, could come at the cost of global commodity stocks………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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IADB cautions Latin America; growth seen up 3.6 pct

Posted on 19 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Luis Alberto MorenoThe economy of Latin America and the Caribbean should grow 3.6 percent this year, down from recent rates above 5 percent as slower expansion in China, a soft recovery in the United States and debt woes in Europe weigh on the global economy.
The Inter-American Development Bank, in its latest annual outlook released on Sunday, said the region’s fortunes would depend in large part on prices for commodities and demand from its biggest buyer - China………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Buy gold because a currency crisis is coming

Posted on 14 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

We have long warned that a consequence of a sovereign debt crisis in various countries and coming in the US , would be currency devaluations and an international monetary crisis. Slowly but surely various commentators are now coming to that conclusion.
According to a new book launched this month, ‘In Gold We Trust?’ a currency crisis is coming and people should buy gold to protect themselves. Michael Green, co-author with Matthew Bishop of ‘In Gold We Trust?’, explains to Gregg Greenberg of The Street in the video why a currency crisis is unavoidable and investors need to protect themselves with gold. ……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Commodities feverish on China slowdown

Posted on 08 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

When it comes to the commodities market, if China says it even plans to sneeze, others get a cold. And commodity markets got a fever after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao lowered the country’s growth target.
Although prices recovered slightly on Wednesday after a fall on Tuesday, investors remain cautious that a slowdown of the Chinese economy will cut demand for commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

China’s commodity chiefs fear slowdown impact

Posted on 08 March 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Worries over Beijing’s intention to orchestrate an economic slowdown are dogging major construction-commodity sectors, with leaders of the steel sector expressing the deepest concerns over the policy’s impact.
Premier Wen Jiabao on Monday lowered China’s growth target this year to 7.5% from 8%, signaling Beijing’s determination to manage a soft landing to moderate runaway economic expansion………………………………………..Full Article: Source

G20 alert to economic threat from rising oil prices

Posted on 27 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The world’s leading economies said on Sunday they were “alert to the risks of higher oil prices” and discussed at length the impact that sanctions on Iran will have on crude supplies and global growth.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 said in a statement after two days of talks that they welcomed a commitment from producer countries to ensure oil supplies………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global financial crisis: Growth in US & better data from Europe boost confidence on recovery

Posted on 14 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Hedge funds increased bets on rising commodity prices to the highest since September on mounting confidence that growth in the US will strengthen demand. Money managers boosted their combined net-long positions across 18 US futures and options by 13% to 929,199 contracts in the week ended February 7, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
That’s the highest since September 20. Bullish wagers on copper rose to a six-month high, and soybean holdings jumped by the most this year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The impact of the gloomier global outlook on Latin America

Posted on 14 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3.25 percent in 2012, three-quarter percentage points lower than our September forecasts………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Chinese recession may pummel commodities, Smead Capital CEO says

Posted on 10 February 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

China is at risk of falling into a recession by about 2015 that would reduce commodity prices as much as 70 percent, according to the chief executive officer at Smead Capital Management Inc.
Commodities from copper to crude oil may drop 50 percent to 70 percent from current prices in three years to five years, Bill Smead, CEO of the Seattle-based mutual fund, said in an interview in Singapore………………………………………..Full Article: Source

World Bank predicts global slowdown

Posted on 20 January 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

Developing countries have been advised to prepare for further downside risks, as Euro Area debt problems and weakening growth in several big emerging economies are dimming global growth prospects, the World Bank said in its newly-released Global Economic Prospects report.
The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for 2012 to 5.4 per cent for developing countries and 1.4 per cent for high-income countries, down from its June estimates of 6.2 and 2.7 per cent, respectively………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Warning of crisis ‘worse than GFC’, says World Bank

Posted on 19 January 2012 by VRS  |  Email |Print

The World Bank has warned that the globe risks a deeper recession than the 2008-09 crisis, with any recovery likely to be longer as Europe’s debt problems and slowdowns in key countries such as India threaten growth.
As the Gillard government last night warned that Australia would be “hit by the huge challenges in the global economy” while expressing confidence that the nation would weather the storm, economists predicted further interest rate cuts as the Reserve Bank sought to insulate the local economy………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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