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VRS - who has written 34624 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Commodity market increased slightly in March due to encouraging supply fundamentals

Posted on 11 April 2014

Commodities increased slightly in March as positive fundamentals and heightened macroeconomic risk supported returns. Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities in Credit Suisse’s Asset Management business, said, “Commodities were driven largely by fundamental factors in March, and returns were generally uncorrelated with other asset classes. The key themes continued over from January and February, and were largely related to one-off event-driven risks which negatively impacted supplies.

OPEC says its oil output tumbled in March

Posted on 11 April 2014

OPEC’s oil output tumbled to its lowest level this year in March, the cartel of some of the world’s biggest oil producers said Thursday. Production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—which supplies more than a third of the oil consumed globally each day—fell by over half a million barrels a day last month to 29.6 million barrels a day, the group said in its monthly oil market report.

OPEC cautious on economy, sees lower demand for its oil

Posted on 11 April 2014

OPEC lowered the expected demand for its crude oil in 2014 and ended a run of upward revisions to global consumption growth, highlighting concerns over the economy and pressure on its market share from rival producers.

OPEC sees lower demand as U.S. crude output rises

Posted on 11 April 2014

OPEC trimmed estimates for the amount of crude it will need to pump this year amid rising U.S. supplies, and predicted that a “supply buffer” will accumulate before demand peaks in the summer.

Looking back: Oil market’s future is different from its past

Posted on 11 April 2014

By 1994, the oil industry had changed irrevocably due to the increased use of derivatives. Oil was once an internationally regulated utility run by the major oil companies and their home governments. The global industry consisted of a core group of vertically integrated oil majors, a large number of ‘national champion’ state-owned oil companies and some independents.

North American oil glut to keep prices low, IMF says

Posted on 11 April 2014

The International Monetary Fund said global crude oil prices have been relatively lower because of the growth in oil supply from North America. With U.S. oil production on pace to eclipse 9 million barrels per day near term, the trend should continue through next year.

US LNG will not cause European gas price drop: IEA economist

Posted on 11 April 2014

Despite the expected growth of US LNG exports, Europe has “no hope” of seeing gas prices near US levels due to transportation costs, Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s chief economist said Thursday.

Natural gas loses decades-old tie to oil in landmark deal

Posted on 11 April 2014

A contract for France’s largest natural gas company to buy the commodity from Azerbaijan shows the decades-old structure of Europe’s energy market is starting to crumble.

IEE can determine regional oil price

Posted on 11 April 2014

Iran Energy Exchange (IEE) has the potential of playing a key role in determining oil price in the region, Managing Director of Iran Energy Exchange Ali Hosseini said on Wednesday.Talking to IRNA, Hosseini noted that since Iran is an oil-rich country, IEE has the potential of increasing supplies from the current 3,000 barrels per day to 10,000 bpd.

A forecast for gold in 2014

Posted on 11 April 2014

Gold has been a tempting investment option since 2005, when it gave the highest return of 31%. Over the next three years, gold held its ground and gave a smart return of 9%, 29%, and 43% percent, respectively.

Investing in the oldest commodity

Posted on 11 April 2014

Forget Precious Metals… It was a commodity long before man started storing wealth in hard assets like gold and silver. And unlike gold and silver, this commodity has a very practical, non-ornamental use that a man with little training and no education can exploit.

Why Asian shoppers should blast gold prices sky high

Posted on 11 April 2014

A backcloth of rampant investor confidence in the global economic recovery, combined with expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tapering, prompted a monumental shift in global gold demand last year.

India may hold key to higher gold prices – Mitsubishi Corp

Posted on 11 April 2014

Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corporation said in a report published today that they retain a neutral to bearish stance on gold’s performance in the second quarter this year, despite the precious metal’s phenomenon gains in quarter one.

Why I reckon the gold Price will hit $1,425…

Posted on 11 April 2014

As far as gold goes, I would describe myself as cautiously optimistic. Let’s not beat about the bush. I now have a target of US$1,425 an ounce and I’m hoping to see it by May. My stop is just below $1,275. If I’m wrong, I stand to lose about 30 bucks.

Silver outshines gold at start of year

Posted on 11 April 2014

The popularity of silver is on the rise with investments in the metal outpacing it’s more illustrious peer gold during the first three months of 2014.

South Africa February platinum output plunges most in two years

Posted on 11 April 2014

South Africa’s platinum group metals output dropped the most in two years in February after a strike at the world’s three biggest producers crippled output.

Non-ferrous metal trade could suffer from US, EU sanctions on Russia

Posted on 11 April 2014

The effects of any US and European Union (EU) sanctions on the non-ferrous metals trade with Russia could be significant, based on the volumes of metals traded.

Nickel market will be in deficit in H2 2014 – Macquarie

Posted on 11 April 2014

The nickel market will be in deficit in the second half of 2014 with no end to the deficit in sight, analysts at Macquarie said, revising their initial prediction that the market would remain in a surplus this year.

Commodities ETPs ride first quarter turmoil to post 7pct gains

Posted on 11 April 2014

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index has risen 7 per cent in the first three months of 2014. During the volatile start to the year, commodity ETPs reversed a year of consecutive quarterly outflows, ETF Securities says. Globally, commodity ETPs took in $300m (£179m) of net inflows in the first quarter, taking the total invested in the space to $122.4bn.

Commodities to continue rise: ETF Securities

Posted on 11 April 2014

Investment in commodities picked up in the first quarter of 2014 after underperforming last year, according to exchange-traded product provider ETF Securities Ltd.

How ETNs differ from ETFs

Posted on 11 April 2014

Exchange-traded funds (ETF) have been in existence for over two decades now and millions of investors now use these flexible tools as their primary investment vehicle of choice. ETFs are extolled for being diversified, transparent, liquid, low-cost, and tax-efficient.

IMF advises Ghana to diversify export commodities

Posted on 11 April 2014

Division Chief of Research at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Thomas Helbling, has asked managers of Ghana’s economy to diversify the country’s exports to minimize shocks that come with declining prices of gold and cocoa.

Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to have new joint currency by 2025

Posted on 11 April 2014

In May 2014, presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will sign an agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union. Sections 9 and 11 the agreement, the draft of which is available on the official website of the Russian Ministry for Economic Development, are devoted to the joint monetary policy and financial markets.

Sebi plans to increase trading hours for currency futures

Posted on 11 April 2014

Longer trading hours may become the norm for currency traders soon. Capital markets regulator Sebi is planning to increase trading hours for currency futures so that market participants in India would be able to adjust and alter their positions in line with the movements in foreign currencies in global markets.

U.S. senators back buttressing Ukraine’s currency

Posted on 11 April 2014

Two Republican senators want Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to consider bolstering Ukraine’s currency to limit the country’s sensitivity to external factors, including military and financial moves by Russia.

Carbon grab—the next natural resource dilemma?

Posted on 11 April 2014

A Washington-based human rights organization warns of an unprecedented “carbon grab” by governments and investors that will infringe upon the rights of indigenous peoples in low- and middle-income countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa.

Why hasn’t the US tried cap and trade for emissions?

Posted on 11 April 2014

“Cap-and-trade,” whereby big polluters must pay to emit greenhouse gases against a capped total amount that is reduced over time — has been in effect across the European Union (EU) since 2005. This so-called Emissions Trading System (ETS) requires 11,000 of the largest electric and industrial facilities in 28 European countries to participate.

China commodity demand not peaking, says IMF

Posted on 10 April 2014

China’s economic deceleration has spooked commodity markets. But the International Monetary Fund, in its latest global economic report, said China’s demand for commodities is far from peaking.

World Bank says Latin America growth slowing as commodities ease

Posted on 10 April 2014

Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will slow this year as commodity prices remain flat or drop on a deceleration in China, the World Bank said in a report today.

U.S. bank regulator issues bulletin on oil, gas lending risks

Posted on 10 April 2014

A U.S. regulatory agency on Wednesday issued tips for bankers and examiners on potential risks involved with loans for oil and natural gas production, as the domestic energy boom continues.

Energy firms to Fed: Hands off banks’ commodity trading

Posted on 10 April 2014

Energy companies are mounting a last-ditch effort to prevent the Federal Reserve from cracking down on physical commodity trading by major Wall Street banks, saying more restriction may further damage liquidity and raise hedging costs.

Why are banks closing commodity arms?

Posted on 10 April 2014

Higher regulatory pressure and diminishing profit potential. Are these just excuses, or are they the real reasons we’ve seen a major shift by the investment banks out of commodities and physical trading?

GCC economies immune to oil price shock

Posted on 10 April 2014

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that most GCC economies continue to have “substantial buffers” to cope with short-lived oil price shocks despite an expected drop in their current account surpluses.

US output, potential low demand pose risks to Gulf oil

Posted on 10 April 2014

A rapid growth in US oil production combined with potentially weaker global demand present a downside risk to Gulf oil output and prices, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday.

Citi vs. Chevron: Two opposing views of the oil price future

Posted on 10 April 2014

The direction of oil prices is once again a hot topic. In a recent Barron’s article, Ed Morse, Citigroup’s head of global commodity research, forecasts a collapse in global oil prices to $75 /b over the next three to five years.

OPEC plans to make room for extra oil from Iran, Iraq, Libya

Posted on 10 April 2014

OPEC, which supplies 40 percent of the world’s oil, will accommodate additional output from members Iraq, Iran and Libya, Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said, without explaining how it will do so under the group’s ceiling.

More oil coming from non-OPEC members

Posted on 10 April 2014

Most of the growth in petroleum and other liquid fuel supplies comes from countries outside of OPEC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. EIA said it projects petroleum and other liquids supply to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2014 and 1.3 million bpd in 2015, with most of the growth coming from North America.

Gold price near two-week high amid Ukraine tensions

Posted on 10 April 2014

Gold was trading near its highest in two weeks on Wednesday, bolstered by signs of increasing demand in China and as rising tensions over Ukraine burnished its safe-haven appeal.

Gold prices 2014: What’s next after Tuesday’s 2-week high

Posted on 10 April 2014

June gold finished the day up $10.60 at $1,308.90 an ounce. Spot gold ended the session on a favorable note as well, up $12 at $1,309.50. The yellow metal is up 1.1% in April, and up 8% year to date.

What’s going on with silver?

Posted on 10 April 2014

According to many analysts surveyed at the beginning of 2014, this year was not supposed to be a good one for silver. In fact, in January we reported that many silver forecasts saw the silver price averaging around $21 per ounce. We are now in a mindset where any activity above $20 per ounce is greeted with positivity and chatter about a price recovery.

Monetary collapse and silver price not so orderly rise

Posted on 10 April 2014

We are about to see the end of our current international monetary system. Based on much of the evidence that I have written about previously, this appears to be a certainty. The systematic build-up of this current monetary order went together with the gradual phasing out of silver from the monetary order.

The precious metals that are primed for takeoff

Posted on 10 April 2014

Move over, gold. Palladium is ready to shine. The precious metal, used mostly to make catalytic converters that clean up emissions from combustion engines in cars, has seen a 7-percent jump in futures prices year-to-date. And analysts see further upside for the commodity, thanks to squeezed supply and growing automobile demand.

Precious metals: Extreme long term leverage play

Posted on 10 April 2014

The strategy discussed below may play a very significant role for a portfolio hedger who wishes to use relatively little capital for the purpose being achieved (assuming the inverse relationship between silver and equities), while offering speculators what may be the single greatest expression of very long term leverage that I have ever seen in my 32 years in the industry, including the other major silver troughs, as well as the Japanese, Shanghai and New York summits.

Thomson Reuters GFMS: Copper to remain under pressure; supply surplus expected

Posted on 10 April 2014

Copper prices are likely to remain under pressure in 2014 as the market posts a moderate supply/demand surplus, said Thomson Reuters GFMS Tuesday.

World apparent steel use to rise 3.1pct to 1,527 Mt in 2014

Posted on 10 April 2014

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2014 and 2015. worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 3.1% to 1,527 Mt in 2014 following growth of 3.6% in 2013. In 2015, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow further by 3.3% and will reach 1,576 Mt.

Iron-ore bear market deepens as Aussie mines expand: Commodities

Posted on 10 April 2014

The world is mining more iron ore than steelmakers need. Australia, the largest supplier, sent 504 ships from Port Hedland during the first quarter carrying enough iron-ore exports to build more than 700 Golden Gate Bridges. Shipments jumped 35 percent to the biggest buyer, China, where inventories have ballooned to the highest ever.

U.S. commodity ETFs fall for fifth quarter -Lipper

Posted on 10 April 2014

U.S. retail and institutional investors pulled cash from broad commodity exchange-traded funds for a fifth straight quarter even as coffee, natural gas and hogs prices had their best run in years, data from Thomson Reuters Lipper showed on Wednesday.

Turning sentiment lifts commodities ETFs

Posted on 10 April 2014

Volatile global financial markets and a shift in investor sentiment were contributing factors to the rise of commodities exchange traded products in the first quarter.

Commodity ETPs post net inflow in 1Q, led by silver

Posted on 10 April 2014

More money flowed into silver exchange-traded products than any other commodity during the first quarter, enabling commodity ETPs as a whole to post their first net inflow since the fourth quarter of 2012, ETF Securities said Wednesday.

UBS passes commodity index control to Bloomberg

Posted on 10 April 2014

UBS has transferred control of one the world’s top indices for commodity prices to Bloomberg as banks retreat from setting financial benchmarks in the wake of the Libor scandal.

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