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VRS - who has written 48800 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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OPEC’s big three battle for oil market share until the bitter end

Posted on 23 November 2016

If oil prices are going to rebound, a few countries that have spent two years trying to edge each other out of crude markets will have to learn to cooperate.

As OPEC looms, hedge funds more cautious on oil: Kemp

Posted on 23 November 2016

Hedge funds have taken a more cautious stance on oil prices amid a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at securing a production-limiting deal among OPEC members by the end of the month. The funds cut their combined net long position in the three major Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures and options contracts by just 3 million barrels to 422 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 15.

Iran and Iraq Stumbling Blocks to OPEC Production Cut

Posted on 23 November 2016

Iran and Iraq have emerged as major stumbling blocks as OPEC officials tried to make progress on the broad outlines of a production cut that would thrust the cartel back into the position of directly trying to influence petroleum prices.

Gold prices extend rebound to a second-straight session

Posted on 23 November 2016

Gold prices extended their rebound from nine-month lows to score back-to-back gains on Tuesday as the rally in the U.S. dollar stalled. Gold has been “hit pretty hard in the last couple of weeks and…is stabilizing and base building just as [the U.S. dollar] has become exhausted and has started to level off,” Colin Cieszynski, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, told MarketWatch.

TDS: Any Dip Below $1,200/Oz Gold ‘Should Be Bought’

Posted on 23 November 2016

TD Securities does not anticipate a complete collapse in gold and suggests any price dips below the $1,200-an-ounce level “should be bought.” Gold tumbled over the last two weeks on a higher U.S. dollar, steepening yield curve and expected rise in so-called carry costs, TDS says.

Potential gold-import ban by India could be biggest bombshell since Nixon

Posted on 23 November 2016

Back in August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by taking the dollar off the gold standard. The dollar had been on gold standard since Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. The biggest bombshell for gold investors in 45 years since Nixon announcement may be ahead.

Five Best Ways To Invest In Gold

Posted on 23 November 2016

Gold will always be the ultimate instrument for hedging investments in dollars. This because the price of gold will rise whenever the price of the dollar falls. Financial market experts are of the opinion that in the coming years and decades, the potential for generating profits is much higher when you invest in gold rather than the traditional blue chip company stocks.

Iron ore, steel rally in China as speculators return

Posted on 23 November 2016

Iron ore and steel are resuming their rally in China as investors return to the market to pick up commodities made cheaper after days of steep losses, but a shaky demand outlook suggests the gains will again be fleeting.

Steel and its raw materials rally again

Posted on 23 November 2016

Prices of steel and its raw materials soared to hit their trade limits in China on Tuesday as investors returned to the market to pick up sold-off commodities, but a shaky demand outlook suggests the gains would again be fleeting.

Is the copper mine supply wave peaking? Andy Home

Posted on 23 November 2016

Copper’s recent turbo-charged rally has upended the market’s narrative of supply surplus. Too much supply was supposedly the reason why copper, until this month, was the worst performer among the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Copper Rises as Investors Bet on Growing Chinese Demand

Posted on 23 November 2016

Copper futures resumed their climb on Tuesday, supported by predictions of greater demand from China and higher oil prices. Copper for December delivery was recently up 1% at $2.5390 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Goldman Bullish on Commodities Amid Mining’s Accelerating Rally

Posted on 23 November 2016

Commodities are back in favor, boosting oil producers and miners after their annus horribilis of 2015. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for its biggest three-day advance since June, led by gains in oil and industrial metals. That’s pushed shares of mining companies close to their highest this year, with Anglo American Plc and Glencore Plc gaining almost 5 percent on Tuesday. Energy companies also rose, with Tullow Oil Plc up 2.2 percent.

Will this Precious Metal ETF Outshine Others in 2017?

Posted on 23 November 2016

Precious metals have had an amazing journey this year on a flight to safety amid global growth concerns as the Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential elections led to volatility. Now that market conditions are witnessing a reversal, palladium has clearly emerging as a winner in the precious metals space, thanks to its industrial uses.

Commodity ETF Overview

Posted on 23 November 2016

Commodities are known as the raw materials for production processes. Investing in them provides investors with exposure to unique factors that historically have brought diversification and inflation hedging benefits to traditional portfolios.

Goldman Sachs and Chinese speculators fuel soy market rally

Posted on 23 November 2016

The rally in soybean futures continued, as funds pile into the oilseed, but what is fuelling this fund buying? One factor is that Chinese soy-complex and vegoil markets are once again in bull-mode, after the government stepped in to cool speculation last week.

India just made a big mistake with its currency ban

Posted on 23 November 2016

Like everyone else, we were surprised by the dramatic action taken by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to demonetize the existing 500 and 1,000 rupee notes. This is by far the most sweeping change in currency policy that has occurred anywhere in the world in decades.

RBI starts moving old notes from ‘flooded’ currency chests

Posted on 23 November 2016

It is a problem of plenty for the banks and currency chests, which store currency notes and coins on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. With people depositing the demonetised notes of ₹500/1,000 in crores, bank branches and currency chests are overflowing with no room for further storage.

China to Trump: Climate change is not a hoax

Posted on 23 November 2016

China just rejected US President-elect Donald Trump’s widely derided claim that global warming is a Chinese hoax created to harm the American manufacturing sector. Speaking at the UN climate summit in Marrakech, Morocco, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said that his country couldn’t have invented climate change because previous Republican administrations actually put global warming solutions on the international agenda.

Goldman Overweights Commodities for First Time in Four Years

Posted on 22 November 2016

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investors should bet on higher commodities prices in the next year as manufacturing picks up around the world, the first time the bank has recommended an overweight position for the asset class in more than four years.

Resources rally a game-changer: Goldman’s Tim Toohey

Posted on 22 November 2016

Goldman Sachs’ Australian chief economist Tim Toohey is predicting interest rate hikes and a stronger dollar as commodity prices continue to defy expectations. Coking coal is up 300 per cent this year, thermal coal up 100 per cent and iron ore 80 per cent, with most of the gains in the past two months amid economic stimulus, regulatory change and speculation in China.

Growth forecasts for EM economies finally looking up

Posted on 22 November 2016

Economic growth projections for emerging markets are finally starting to show signs of restoration from modest levels, having bottomed in the second quarter of this year. The ensuing rebound has steadily been translating into more positive earnings expectations after a lengthy period of net downward revisions.

Analysts bearish on oil price despite Opec deal hopes

Posted on 22 November 2016

Growing hopes for an Opec deal on production has helped the oil price continue its rebound after hitting three-month lows last week. Iran, one of the most stubbornly resistant members of the 14-nation cartel, has been offered an exemption from export cuts so long as it agrees to “at least cap production” at its pre-international sanctions level, Reuters reports.

Economics of an OPEC deal make a lot of sense

Posted on 22 November 2016

Not only will OPEC reach a deal this month, but Goldman Sachs’ global head of commodities research said the cartel will have to “take it to conclusion” once the process starts.

Preparing Your Portfolio for an OPEC Oil Agreement (Video)

Posted on 22 November 2016

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, discusses the prospect of an OPEC oil output deal and his investment strategy ahead of this month’s meeting. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.

Gold bugs blindsided by Trumpflation

Posted on 22 November 2016

Investors wrongfooted by second major surprise that prompted a flight from havens. What’s bugging gold? The election as US president of a political neophyte with questionable temperament was supposed to be a sweet moment for gold, perhaps the best-known haven when markets or politics get a little hairy.

Russians, Chinese Supporting Gold Price

Posted on 22 November 2016

Gold threatened to breach the $1,200 level on Friday before rebounding. The sentiment was helped by word that the Russian central bank added 1.3 million ounces to reserves in October and that was before the price drop. The Chinese and Russians have been supporting the market below $1,250 this month, which is helping to offset the large futures and ETF liquidation.

Gold Prices Plummeting to $1,200: Will Selloff Continue?

Posted on 22 November 2016

The conventional wisdom had gold prices skyrocketing in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, which put Donald Trump into the White House. But that hasn’t been the case, with gold future sliding through November, with two consecutive weekly price declines leading up to November 19. Last week, December gold futures slid by $7.60, to just over $1,200 per ounce - a nine-month low.

Is the copper mine supply wave peaking? Andy Home

Posted on 22 November 2016

Copper’s recent turbo-charged rally has upended the market’s narrative of supply surplus. Too much supply was supposedly the reason why copper, until this month, was the worst performer among the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Is the copper rally for real?

Posted on 22 November 2016

Copper’s aggressive advance in the week since Donald Trump was elected president of the United States suggests investors are more bullish about growth than they have been in years, but strategists wonder if the rally is for real.

A Trump-tastic Industry ETF Idea

Posted on 22 November 2016

Plenty of sector and industry ETFs are reacting positively to Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month. The VanEck Vectors Steel ETF is one of those ETFs and there is a credible chance SLX can keep building on its recent gains that have seen the steel fund gain more than 13% this month.

Brexit makes British pound ETF a trading favorite despite fall near record low

Posted on 22 November 2016

An exchange-traded fund that tracks the British pound has emerged as a popular trade, with volume and inflows skyrocketing as investors play one of the most volatile segments of the global financial market.

Copper ETF Rally has Plenty of Doubters

Posted on 22 November 2016

Industrial metals like copper, nickel, iron and steel have all rebounded in recent months as traders bet on improving global economic conditions would bolster demand for the base metals after prices hit multi-year lows.

All you wanted to know about currency chest

Posted on 22 November 2016

If you were among those making frequent trips to the bank in the last few days, you might have been told by a bank employee that money is on its way from the currency chest. Or you could have heard people say that all the 100 and 50 notes have disappeared from the currency chest.

JPMorgan sees stable Chinese currency, economy

Posted on 22 November 2016

Investment bank JPMorgan Chase said the yuan is relatively stable against a basket of currencies despite continued drops against the US dollar. Stronger signals pointing toward US interest rate hike in December have put more downward pressure on the yuan, a trend that will persist in the fourth quarter, said Jing Ulrich, managing director and vice chair of Asia Pacific at JPMorgan Chase.

China prepares to open national carbon market

Posted on 22 November 2016

No immediate emissions reduction is expected when it opens next year, but the huge scale of China’s carbon market provides hope for reductions from 2020 onwards. In the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election, and his refusal to recognise climate change, China’s new carbon market is attracting particular attention.

China Outlines Plan To Combat Climate Change

Posted on 22 November 2016

The ongoing Marrakech Climate Change Conference is the first meeting among member states since the Paris Agreement went into force, and also the first meeting that focuses on what actions will be taken.

With Trump And Brexit, Is The Global Economy In Danger?

Posted on 22 November 2016

The popular mobilisation in Europe has given an immense impetus to the conservative polity who maintain the status quo in the world. The rise of ‘protectionist’ politics through democratic and populist processes has questioned the effectiveness and sustainability of the neoliberal economic order.

As China punishes speculators, billions of dollars exit commodities

Posted on 21 November 2016

Billions of dollars in funds exited China’s commodities futures in less than a week, the most since February, as regulators curbed speculative trading in a display of Beijing’s power to swiftly cool markets.

Non-oil commodity prices on the move

Posted on 21 November 2016

The possible implications of a Trump presidency in the United States are spurring notable movements in other commodities apart from oil. Copper, in particular, has put in a stellar showing. Prices soared to a 17-month high following the Nov 8 election, and were up 18.6 per cent as at last Friday since the start of the year.

Commodities: Is the bull market out of puff as speculators run for the exits?

Posted on 21 November 2016

For the commodity bulls out there, the past few months have been rollicking fun. Coking coal prices have tripled since mid-year and iron ore has doubled since January. However, in the past week or so, the news flow has turned somewhat negative.

Chinese commodity futures turmoil casts doubt on possible trading links

Posted on 21 November 2016

Price fluctuations reveal that the mainland market is still too much of a speculative gamble for Hong Kong and overseas investors, analysts say. With the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect approaching, some observers now expect the next step in Hong Kong’s financial links to the mainland could come through commodities trading.

Saudia Arabia and the Oil Pricing Wars of the Middle East

Posted on 21 November 2016

Regional competition and the lack of a cooperation strategy with its neighbors are compounding Saudi Arabia’s inability to act as an oil price setter. The 70 percent drop in oil prices from their all-time highs in 2014 to the current lows of an average of $47 dollars per barrel is severely affecting all hydrocarbon producers, but especially Saudi Arabia.

Oil demand growth could fall below 1% by 2018

Posted on 21 November 2016

Impact investment firm Wermuth Asset Management (WAM), has said that regardless of whether oil prices rise around potential Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) production-capping news, there is no long-term future for the hydrocarbon sector. Solar power is now available at $3 cent/kWh, which is equivalent to oil at $5/barrel.

Will Russian Oil Break America’s “Marriage” To Saudi Arabia?

Posted on 21 November 2016

For years, Saudi Arabia was a close American ally, while Russia was a distant enemy. That’s why America purchased a lot of oil from Saudi Arabia and very little from Russia. For the period 1973-2005, America’s oil imports from the Saudi kingdom remained steady, in the range of one to 1.5 million barrels per day.

Oil may rise to $55 if all producers cooperate: Iran

Posted on 21 November 2016

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh expressed optimism on Saturday about an upcoming OPEC meeting and said crude prices could jump to $55 a barrel if an agreement is reached and non-OPEC producers cooperate.

OPEC Math Misses the Point

Posted on 21 November 2016

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said Thursday he’s “optimistic” that the agreement OPEC reached in September to limit supply will be implemented, with individual output ceilings for member countries. But don’t mistake him for a pushover.

Gold’s Next Stop: $1,000 Per Ounce?

Posted on 21 November 2016

While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory.

Speculators Are Finally Bailing Out Of Gold – And That’s A Good Thing

Posted on 21 November 2016

All this talk of massive new infrastructure spending financed with a tsunami of freshly-minted currency should be lighting a fire under gold. That it hasn’t is a testament to how out-of-whack the precious metals market had gotten during the first six months of this year.

Where Is the Gold Price Headed? Three Views

Posted on 21 November 2016

Gold has fallen by more than 5% since Election Day, to $1,209 an ounce, although it’s poised to end 2016 sharply higher than its year-end 2015 close of $1,060 an ounce. Where will the yellow metal go next?

Aluminum’s Chinese Illusion

Posted on 21 November 2016

Something very strange is happening in China’s metal markets. Buyers appear to be behaving the way U.S. shoppers do at this time of year: queuing up and pushing to get their hands on some product before anyone else can get a chance.

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