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VRS - who has written 45687 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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China securities regulator orders major commodities exchanges to control futures speculation

Posted on 29 April 2016

China’s securities regulator ordered the country’s major commodity futures exchanges this week to control speculative trading activity, sources told Reuters, after a surge in prices sparked fears of a boom-and-bust cycle.

How to avoid the commodities curse

Posted on 29 April 2016

Papua New Guinea lays out the challenges in stark and basic terms following slump in prices. If you want evidence of the “commodities curse”, look no further than Port Moresby, the raggle-taggle capital of Papua New Guinea.

Opec bid to throw US out of oil market seems to have backfired

Posted on 29 April 2016

Crude oil prices continued to trend higher for the second consecutive fortnight in a row, as Brent rose more than 7.5 per cent while WTI gained 10.10 per cent over the same period.

Oil market to face lack of supply in 3 years: Total CEO

Posted on 29 April 2016

The global oil market will face a lack of supply in three years’ time due to expenditure cuts and postponements in mega projects, Patrick Pouyanne, chairman of the Board and CEO of French oil giant Total said.

Oil’s Rise Chugs On

Posted on 29 April 2016

Crude prices increase as many traders become more confident that oversupply will wane. Oil’s rally chugged ahead on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark closing above $46 a barrel for the first time since November, again thwarting analysts who have repeatedly called for a retreat.

Rising oil prices throw lifeline to shale producers: Kemp

Posted on 29 April 2016

Brent prices for 2017 ended trading above $50 per barrel on Wednesday for the first time since mid-December following the largest and most sustained rally in prices since the oil slump started.

Did OPEC Just Start Preparing for the End of the Oil Era?

Posted on 29 April 2016

Sunday, April 17, was the designated moment. The world’s leading oil producers were expected to bring fresh discipline to the chaotic petroleum market and spark a return to high prices.

Analysts Just Aren’t Buying the Oil Rally

Posted on 29 April 2016

Questions remain about current high oil stockpiles and the potential for increased supply. Even as oil rallies, analysts have barely nudged up their price forecasts as they worry that crude’s recent gains might not be sustainable.

Gold to leave three-year rout behind as Fed rate expectations fade: poll

Posted on 29 April 2016

After three straight years of losses, analysts are finally prepared to say gold prices have found a bottom, with rising prices seen this year and next as concerns over the pace of U.S. monetary policy tightening fade.

Who are gold traders?

Posted on 29 April 2016

The Commitments of Traders Report is one of the most important publications on the gold market. It is usually published every Friday at 15:30 Eastern time by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to provide market participants “a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC.”

Believe it or Not – It’s Way Too Early to Take Profits in Gold and Silver

Posted on 29 April 2016

It was no fun investing in precious metals for most of 2011-2015, but the past few months have sure been a blast for buy-and-hold investors. Silver prices are up 22.5% year to date, and gold isn’t far behind. Now that there are some profits available to take, some gold and silver investors wonder if they should grab them. The answer for most people is not yet — not even close.

Metal prices

Posted on 29 April 2016

The Economist’s metals index has fallen by 46% from its peak in 2011, largely because of slowing demand in China. Supply disruptions caused occasional spikes: nickel prices rose in the first half of 2014 after Indonesia banned metal-ore exports and zinc prices jumped in 2015 after mine closures.

Iron Ore Bear Holds Fast Even After `the Market Got It So Wrong’

Posted on 29 April 2016

Iron ore’s surprise rally may be a thing of the past in just three months. Rising supply will top demand once more and the sudden jump in speculative trading in China that’s helped support gains is set to fizzle out, according to Brazil’s Itau Unibanco Holding SA.

How Shanghai trading is changing the physical nickel market

Posted on 29 April 2016

Everyone’s talking about Chinese speculators. This year has seen an unprecedented surge of trading volumes and open interest in Chinese markets as institutional and retail investors pour money into commodities.

ETF Industry Assets Grow in Q1 2016

Posted on 29 April 2016

ETF growth across the industry in Q1 was fueled by the retail space, climbing to $2.3 trillion overall. More specifically, during Q1 2016, ETF assets climbed by 2.4% QoQ to $2.3 trillion, which was fueled in part by retail channels, as calculated by its Fund Distribution Intelligence.

Water ETFs to Invest in 2016 - Best ETFs for Full Exposure to Water

Posted on 29 April 2016

With the droughts on the West Coast, and led crisis expanding from Flint to the rest of the East Coast, investing in water companies sounds like a no brainer. To further back the opportunity, the genius from the movie “The Big Short” also has explained why water is the commodity to buy.

Commodity hedge funds outshine other hedge funds

Posted on 29 April 2016

The commodities market has a very positive sentiment now and the commodity hedge funds are doing better than other hedge funds. Commodities hedge funds have given negative returns for the past three years.

Maybe Currency Flash Crashes Don’t Matter

Posted on 29 April 2016

The world’s biggest financial market may be destined for a flash-crash future.This sounds scary because the foreign-exchange market is crucial, determining the real-time worth of every nation’s currency. But violent moves there may not matter as much as they do in other markets, such as those for equities.

The currency correlations that matter

Posted on 29 April 2016

Yen’s surge contributes to tremors across asset classes from commodities to S&P futures. This week provided further evidence of how sharp currency moves can have an impact on the broader market.

The Real Currency War

Posted on 29 April 2016

Disagreement came to the global financial system when the control over reserve currency became a matter of privilege rather than responsibility. That struggle has since become a morass of monetary expansion and conflict as states have pursued their own, often incompatible currency goals.

EU High Court Rules Against Businesses on Carbon Credits

Posted on 29 April 2016

European Court of Justice rules EU gave out too may allowances when it expanded the emissions program in 2013. The European Union’s highest court on Thursday ordered the European Commission to adjust its emissions-trading program in a way that could raise costs for some of the bloc’s biggest companies.

Cap-and-trade best way for Canada to reduce emissions

Posted on 29 April 2016

Rather than a patchwork of provincial policies, a Canada-wide system would send a stronger signal that a low-carbon future is upon us. Over the last decade, in the absence of federal leadership, Canadian provinces have gone their own way on carbon pricing.

For commodities markets, the bad times are just beginning

Posted on 28 April 2016

For the commodities market, the good times have come and gone, but the bad times are only just beginning. Each commodities supercycle, defined as a decadelong bull market, has always been followed by a downturn that lasted just as long, or longer.

Iron ore, steel lead China commodities retreat as curbs bite

Posted on 28 April 2016

A major Chinese commodities exchange took further steps to calm volatile markets on Wednesday, hiking transaction fees and widening trade limits in a move that could make exiting futures contracts more orderly.

Speculators march into China commodities

Posted on 28 April 2016

At the start of the year western commodity traders knew China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, would play a decisive role in the direction of markets. What they did not know was that it would be Chinese investors as much the country’s economic prospects driving prices.

Saudi Arabia will struggle to kick its addiction to oil: Kemp

Posted on 28 April 2016

“King Abdulaziz and the men who worked with him for the establishment of the state did not depend on oil and they established the kingdom without oil, and they ran this state without oil, and they lived in this state without oil,” Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an televised interview on Monday.

World Bank optimistic on oil averaging at $41 this year

Posted on 28 April 2016

World Bank boosted its forecast for oil prices this year, projecting that refinery demand will pick up and United States production cuts will steepen in the second half of 2016.

Oil tops $45 a barrel for first time since November

Posted on 28 April 2016

Oil climbed above $45 a barrel in New York today for the first time since November after U.S. industry data showed a decline in crude stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate futures rose as much as 2.6 percent, extending a 3.3 percent gain Tuesday.

Low demand in Asia may pull down gold price

Posted on 28 April 2016

Gold prices that hit a 13-month high in March are likely to fall back in the short term because of a slump in demand from key Asian consumers, GFMS analysts said in a report on Tuesday.

Why China Wants Yuan-Denominated Gold

Posted on 28 April 2016

It’s crucial to understand the potential benefits for China of having yuan-denominated gold. Besides internationalization, the fix may also increase the liquidity and efficiency of the gold markets. Yuan-denominated gold may also reduce the dependency of gold on the US dollar, though this may not hold true in the short run. In the longer run, gold may untangle from the US dollar.

Silver price jumps to near one-year high

Posted on 28 April 2016

On Wednesday, silver jumped to the highest since mid-May last year, as the metal continues to be rerated against the gold price and industrial metals demand gets a boost.

Silver bullion momentum building as supply trouble brewing

Posted on 28 April 2016

Silver bullion prices are likely to rise further as there is “supply trouble brewing” as strong industrial and investment demand are confronted by declining supply.

Copper hits lowest in a week on China speculator crackdown

Posted on 28 April 2016

Copper dipped to the lowest in a week on its third straight day of losses as a crackdown on speculators in China dampened sentiment, though metals markets were supported by a weaker dollar and strong oil prices.

Nasdaq mulls new exchange to ease trading in illiquid ETFs - CEO

Posted on 28 April 2016

The acquisition of U.S. options exchange operator ISE from Deutsche Boerse AG was approved by the U.S. Department of Justice last week, Robert Greifeld, Nasdaq’s chief executive officer, said on a call with analysts.

Aluminium looks vulnerable to pullback, iron ore less so: Russell

Posted on 28 April 2016

If there is a common theme emerging from the recent strong gains in commodity prices, it’s that the extent of the rally isn’t justified by fundamentals and is therefore largely speculative.

Oil ETFs Are Battling Bearish Energy Earnings

Posted on 28 April 2016

Oil sector exchange traded funds are facing some hurdles as major energy producers ready their first quarter results. With overwhelmingly weak expectations after crude prices plunged to near 13-year lows in February, the sector ETFs could surprise if oil producers reveal conditions weren’t as bad as previously expected.

Speculative Bubble in China Commodity Futures Rattles Industry Players

Posted on 28 April 2016

A surge of volatility in China’s once placid commodities futures markets has rattled industrial players who use them for hedging, with some taking losses or cutting exposure, driven out by a flood of speculative money from hedge funds and retail investors.

Sweden Declares Truce in Currency War

Posted on 28 April 2016

Sweden’s central bank is calling a truce in the currency war. As policy makers in Stockholm last week announced they would reduce the pace of their quantitative easing program in the second half of this year, they also signaled they are now willing to accept a stronger krona.

Investors Put Their Chips on the Yen

Posted on 28 April 2016

As Japan’s central bank again ponders steps to rouse the country’s sluggish economy, an array of market forces is betting against it. Asset managers are trimming bets the yen will weaken against the U.S. dollar and increasingly betting it will strengthen instead.

EUA rally crosses €7 mark, prices up 23% in past week

Posted on 28 April 2016

European carbon prices continued to climb on Tuesday after the previous day’s stellar rise, notching a 3.3% gain on the back of a bullish energy complex and after EUAs hit their highest since mid-January.

Carbon copy: Are we in for another scare campaign over climate change?

Posted on 28 April 2016

While groups such as The Climate Institute and the Greens will question whether targets for emissions cuts – close to double the Coalition’s by 2030 – go far enough, Shorten is sending a clear signal he’s willing to make climate a centrepiece of the 2016 election campaign.

UK’s ECCC backs fifth carbon budget proposal to cut emissions by 57% from 1990

Posted on 28 April 2016

A House of Commons select committee backed the UK’s proposal to set the fifth carbon budget at 1,765 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), which would cut emissions to an average 57% below 1990 baseline levels.

China acts to cool frenzied speculation in commodities

Posted on 27 April 2016

China has moved to clamp down on excessive speculation in commodities after weeks of frenzied trading boosted prices and ignited fears of another bubble in its domestic markets.

Commodity hedge funds are hot again

Posted on 27 April 2016

Commodity hedge funds netted more investor cash in the first quarter than any other type of hedge fund, and their $4 billion of inflows was their largest for any quarter in more than six years. The group has brought in more money that it has had to redeem for seven straight months, the longest winning streak ever tracked by eVestment.

World Bank sees US$41 oil this year, but cuts outlook for other commodities

Posted on 27 April 2016

The World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to US$41 per barrel, up from the US$37 per barrel forecast at the start of this year, in view of “improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar”.

Saudi reforms could be low oil price’s cure

Posted on 27 April 2016

A major obstacle holding back economic reform in Saudi Arabia has been removed. And with it goes one of the main barriers to a rising oil price. Saudi’s cabinet approved an economic reform plan on April 25 aimed at ending the country’s addiction to crude.

Oil hits 2016 high after U.S. crude draw report, gasoline rally

Posted on 27 April 2016

Crude oil prices hit 2016 highs on Tuesday on the back of a rally in the gasoline market and after an industry group reported a surprise draw in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent and U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished regular trading about 3 percent higher, riding on the coattails of a gasoline rally that hit August highs after a series of refinery hikes.

Venezuela formally proposes non-OPEC producers attend Vienna meeting

Posted on 27 April 2016

Venezuela has proposed that non-OPEC oil producers attend the group’s June meeting in Vienna to continue “dialogue and coordination,” according to a letter sent by the South American country’s oil minister to the Qatari energy minister, who is also the current OPEC president.

Gold price could hit $1,300/oz on weaker dollar, global risks – HSBC

Posted on 27 April 2016

The gold price has the potential to hit $1,300 this year thanks to gold-bullish factors including a weaker dollar, global risks and a modest recovery in oil prices, HSBC said. A move above $1,300 would take the yellow metal to the strongest since January 2015. Spot gold was last at $1,233.30/1,233.60 per ounce, down $3.70 on Tuesday’s close.

China’s Gold Imports Jump on Investment Demand as Price Falters

Posted on 27 April 2016

China, the world’s biggest gold consumer, increased bullion imports from Hong Kong in March as a global price rally stalled and local investment demand showed signs of recovery. Net purchases climbed to 64.1 metric tons from 42.9 tons in February and 61.8 tons a year earlier, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department compiled by Bloomberg.

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