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VRS - who has written 44353 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Gold is 2016’s most beloved asset

Posted on 03 February 2016

Gold bugs are among the only smiling investors these days. Prices have jumped 6% this year to $1,127 an ounce. That makes gold the best performing commodity and one of the only major assets to post a sizable gain in 2016.

There’s a Rush for Gold ETFs

Posted on 03 February 2016

You can learn a lot about an investor from whether they invest in gold, and how they do it. As people pile into gold exchange-traded funds at the fastest rate in more than a year, it’s clear that the precious metal’s appeal as the ultimate safe haven now extends well beyond the universe of dollar-doubters and doomsayers otherwise known as ”gold bugs.”

ETFs in Focus with Continued Emerging Market Asset Outflow

Posted on 03 February 2016

Emerging markets have been struggling for quite some time now. China’s economic problems are at the heart of the emerging markets’ woes. This along with weak emerging market currencies, a strong U.S. dollar and falling oil prices have resulted in a massive sell-off in emerging market stocks for quite some time now.

Commodities-Linked Currencies Fall Versus Dollar, Yen

Posted on 03 February 2016

Investors sold commodities-linked currencies and bought the Japanese yen and the dollar as lower oil and stock prices led to a reduced appetite for risk. The yen and the dollar gained ground against currencies from Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Brazil, Russia and South Africa. U.S. government bonds, another haven market, posted a strong price gain as well.

Investors wise to keep eye on Chinese currency moves

Posted on 03 February 2016

Investing used to seem a lot easier. One could simply select a handful of high quality local businesses that had attractive future prospects and appeared undervalued. Today, in a far more interconnected or “globalised” world, investors need to consider the consequences of many more factors on their portfolios.

Currency traders struggle to turn volatility into profit

Posted on 03 February 2016

Currency traders are getting whiplash from the pile-up of policy surprises that have come their way in the past six months. And because the big events have been unexpected, they’re struggling to translate rising volatility into bigger profits.

Korean trading firm seeks to buy CERs through UN platform

Posted on 03 February 2016

A Korean carbon credit company has filed an expression of interest with the UNFCCC to buy at least 100,000 CERs from projects in South Korea that are eligible in the domestic ETS, UN data showed.

The Carbon Brief interview: Matthew Bell

Posted on 03 February 2016

Matthew Bell has been the chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change since September 2014. Before heading the government’s statutory climate adviser, Bell was a director at consultants Frontier Economics, including spells seconded to the prime minister’s strategy unit and advising the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee.

Investors concerned about commodities, energy: Moody’s

Posted on 02 February 2016

Major investors listed the credit quality of the commodities and energy sectors as their biggest worry this year, as oil oversupply combines with reduced demand from China to drive energy prices sharply lower, said ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service in a report.

Australia’s commodity price index is at a decade low

Posted on 02 February 2016

Prices for Australia’s key commodity exports continued to tumble in January. The latest commodity price index from the Reserve Bank of Australia fell by 2.9% in special drawing rights terms (SDR), largely in response to weakness in iron ore and oil prices.

Yuan Devaluation Will Lower Commodity Prices

Posted on 02 February 2016

A depreciation of 1 per cent in the Chinese yuan leads to a decline of 0.6 per cent in commodity prices, according to Bank of America. This relationship with the currency is the strongest for commodities such as copper and platinum, of which China is the world’s dominant consumer, the US bank’s strategists wrote in a report dated January 25.

The Science (Or Art) Of Forecasting Oil Prices

Posted on 02 February 2016

The past few years have greatly encouraged those who consider oil price forecasters to be little more than astrologers (on a good day), but there are some basic lessons that tend to be overlooked amidst all the noise and confusion.

Saudi Arabia ready to manage oil market but all must cooperate

Posted on 02 February 2016

Saudi Arabia is ready to manage the oil market under the condition that “everybody must cooperate”, from OPEC members to other oil producers outside the exporting group, the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper cited an OPEC source as saying.

Iran’s return to oil market overestimated

Posted on 02 February 2016

Iran’s return to the global oil market, as well as its consequences for the global prices is overestimated, Cyril Widdershoven, Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst believes. They [Iran] have around 30 million barrels at sea, which is based on 500,000 barrels per day an extra volume in market for around 60 days.

The US bet big on American oil and now the whole global economy is paying the price

Posted on 02 February 2016

Oil has wrong-footed our leading experts—again. At the beginning of 2014, the world was marveling in surprise as the US returned as a petroleum superpower, a role it had relinquished in the early 1970s. It was pumping so much oil and gas that experts foresaw a new American industrial renaissance, with trillions of dollars in investment and millions of new jobs.

Oil Prices Drop as Chances Fade for Output Cuts

Posted on 02 February 2016

Oil prices gave back a big chunk of last week’s gains, with traders losing hope that the world’s big producers will cut their output and that Asia’s economies can help drive demand. The market had shot to a three-week high late last week on speculation of increasing economic stimulus, and cooperation on output cuts between Russia and OPEC.

Cramer: Keep an eye on oil prices

Posted on 02 February 2016

Oil prices are pushing stocks lower as investors looked to move on from a dismal January, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday. “The inventory numbers are still too large. I don’t see any real demand at the $34-$35 level,” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street.”

No decision yet on any OPEC, non-OPEC meeting: sources

Posted on 02 February 2016

OPEC and non-OPEC countries have not yet agreed to hold a meeting to discuss action to support oil prices, two OPEC delegates said on Monday, nearly a week after Russian officials said Moscow should talk to OPEC.

Gold lifts on growth fears

Posted on 02 February 2016

Gold has risen to a three-month high, extending its recent rally on worries about global economic growth and hopes for easier monetary policy after weak factory data in Asia and Europe. China’s official measure of manufacturing in January fell to the lowest since mid-2012, while factory growth across the eurozone slowed.

Gold Has The Potential To Hit $1,200/oz: RBC Capital Markets

Posted on 02 February 2016

Gold’s rally so far this year has the potential to move to the metal back up to $1,200, but it remains in an overall downtrend, notes one analyst. “The trend on gold tends to trade in trends that can last years, and is currently in a bearish trend that started four years ago, and is now approaching some long-term support around $1000 where it may level off for a few years in a bottoming range,” said Bob Dickey, technical analyst for RBC Capital Markets.

Time For a Good Gold-to-Silver Ratio Play For Traders? - Peter Hug

Posted on 02 February 2016

Is a major upside number for gold in the cards? Or is the choppy action making investors wary? In the first trading day of February, gold has once again topped the $1,122 chart point. The metal is currently trading near a 3-month high. It has been a good start to the year for gold, with the market up nearly 6% in the past month.

Gold And Silver Outperforming Attracting Hedge Funds, Money Managers - CFTC

Posted on 02 February 2016

After taking a bit of a break, hedge funds and money managers are starting to wade deeper into gold waters, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices

Posted on 02 February 2016

Market will eye January manufacturing PMIs from major economies on Monday. Investors are anticipating policy stimulus to help the Chinese economy bottom out. China’s official manufacturing PMI and that released by Caixin are expected to stabilize.

Why Institutional Investors Are Embracing ETFs

Posted on 02 February 2016

Are ETFs really “weapons of mass destruction” as some critics claim? Despite the doom and gloom, U.S. banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and other large U.S institutions are increasing their ETF exposure.

Energy ETFs for Long-term Growth Investors

Posted on 02 February 2016

Feeling bold? With energy prices at 10 year lows, it could be time to add commodities to your portfolio. We highlight some ETFs that offer exposure to the oil and gas industry. With the price of crude oil hovering at levels not seen for over a decade. Some investors may see this as a great opportunity to increase their exposure to the commodity.

Egypt to launch agricultural commodities bourse by year-end

Posted on 02 February 2016

Egypt plans to launch an agricultural-focused commodities trading exchange, the first of its kind in the Middle East, by the end of 2016, Supplies Minister Khaled Hanafi said. Speaking at a press conference announcing the completion of a feasibility study on the new bourse, Hanafi said its launch would protect small farmers from volatile price swings and help to connect their output to supply chains.

Japan Trading Houses Facing $13 Billion Hit on Commodity Misfire

Posted on 02 February 2016

A handful of companies that have dominated almost every kind of raw-material business in Japan for decades may take as much as $13 billion in charges during the current fiscal year. The global commodity slump is squeezing the “sogo shosha,” or general trading houses like Mitsubishi Corp. that supply everything from gasoline and steel to seafood and noodles in resource-poor Japan.

How Australia has come out on top in this currency war

Posted on 02 February 2016

The Australian dollar’s plunge to a seven-year low is turning out to be a blessing as China steers its slowing economy away from the heavy industries that helped fuel the country’s mining boom.

Yen’s status as a haven currency will endure, despite declines

Posted on 02 February 2016

Many market strategists expect the yen to weaken against the dollar in the near term following Friday’s announcement from the Bank of Japan. But any sustained weakness won’t diminish the Japanese currency’s role as a haven.

Countries Moving to Build Carbon Markets

Posted on 02 February 2016

When climate negotiators signed off on the historic Paris Agreement in December, they opened the door for countries to begin cross-border trading of greenhouse-gas emission reductions and signaled the advent of a price on carbon, which world leaders from Canada’s Justin Trudeau to Ethiopia’s Hailemariam Desalegn say is needed to get companies slashing greenhouse-gas emissions today.

What volatile markets say about the world economy

Posted on 02 February 2016

January is usually expected to be a good month for stock markets, with new money gushing into investment funds, while tax-related selling abates at the end of the year.

Commodities: The fall and beyond…

Posted on 01 February 2016

Commodities are at the vortex of the ongoing turmoil in the global financial markets. Stung by the strong dollar and worries over slowing Chinese appetite, commodity prices have plummeted and investors’ losses have piled up in the last few years. The world is now into its sixth year of a bear market in commodities. Will 2016 see the dust settle down?

2016: The Year of the Commodities Buyer

Posted on 01 February 2016

A world “drowning in oversupply” of oil and other commodities could make 2016 a super-cheap year for Asia’s major resource importers such as China and Japan. However, the drag on growth for commodity exporters is putting yet more pressure on emerging markets, according to the World Bank.

How Is China Driving Down Commodities?

Posted on 01 February 2016

Commodities right now are certainly the place not to be. Commodity markets today are characterized by a triple whammy of overcapacity, overleverage and low profitability. Prices have reflected as much, tanking across the board in the last year, with much of the blame attributed to China’s slowdown as well as the supply glut.

Oil-Price Poker: Why the Saudis Won’t Fold ‘Em

Posted on 01 February 2016

The game being played in the global oil market today bears more than a passing resemblance to poker. Nobody wants to quit while they’re losing. That is important for investors to keep in mind as they ponder what have become almost daily spikes and drops in the price of crude. So, too, is the role of Saudi Arabia in the game.

Saudi Arabia will cooperate on oil output, didn’t propose production cut, says Arabiya

Posted on 01 February 2016

Saudi Arabia wants to cooperate with other oil producers to support the oil market, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television reported on Sunday, quoting an unnamed Saudi source.

The ugly side of slumping oil prices

Posted on 01 February 2016

For a long time, a no-brainer strategy to beat the market was to simply track how the US dollar was doing. Stock prices would shoot up whenever the greenback wobbled, and turn weak at the knees if the US dollar strengthened.

Oil price gains amid Opec, Russia meeting speculation

Posted on 01 February 2016

Oil capped a second weekly gain amid speculation that Opec and Russia will meet to discuss trimming crude production to bolster prices. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that while Opec member Venezuela proposed a meeting next month, nothing is scheduled.

Venezuela Tries to Convince Oil Nations to Cut Production

Posted on 01 February 2016

Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino faces an uphill battle persuading Russia and Saudi Arabia to cooperate in cutting oil production amid a supply glut that has pushed prices down more than 30 percent in the past year, according to analysts Robin Mills and Edward Bell.

Why LBMA’s Top Forecaster Slightly Upped His Gold Forecast

Posted on 01 February 2016

Despite having slightly upped his 2016 gold forecast, the London Bullion Market Association’s 2015 top forecaster says not too get too excited. Natixis ’ precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdad, whose 2015 forecast was within $1 of the average gold price last year, said he expects prices to average around $990 an ounce, up just 2% from his previous call of $970.

Gold price continued dip in December, down 1.6% on month

Posted on 01 February 2016

The average price of gold in December fell 1.6% to $1,068.25/troy oz, from a November average of $1,085.70/oz, the London Bullion Market Association said Friday. The volume of ounces transferred increased by 36.8 % to 23.6 million, its highest level since June 2013, with the corresponding value of gold transferred up nearly 35% to $25.2 billion.

LBMA Silver Price: Trouble in Paradise?

Posted on 01 February 2016

After being named “Exchange of the Year” by Risk Magazine Awards, the CME was rattled as the company saw its benchmark silver price disconnected from the actual price of the metal. According to media reports, the LBMA Silver Price — a benchmark used by producers and traders to settle silver products and derivatives contracts – was off by 84 cents compared to Comex March silver futures Thursday morning.

Silver Price Breaks Higher on Rising Anxiety

Posted on 01 February 2016

Echoing the perilous financial market volatility of late, silver prices have gradually moved to the highest levels since December as growing risk aversion and shifting sentiment see safety bids gain momentum. While not necessarily indicative of a resumption of the trend higher that began in the depths of the last financial crisis, several factors are pointing to increased potential gains in the precious metal as investors are forced to pivot from yield to quality in an effort to hedge against ongoing turmoil.

Barclays said to extend cutbacks by exiting precious metals

Posted on 01 February 2016

Barclays Plc plans to eliminate its precious-metals business, including trading and research, as the bank looks to minimise losses amid declines in commodities, according to a person with direct knowledge of the plan who asked not to be identified as the decision hasn’t been made public.

Miners bracing for ‘doomsday’

Posted on 01 February 2016

Glencore chief executive Ivan Glasenberg rejected predictions that copper would fall below $US4000 a tonne, dubbing it a “doomsday” price. Rio Tinto chief executive Sam Walsh last year said the idea that iron-ore prices would fall to $US30 a tonne was from “fantasy land.”

Are mining shares the steal of the century?

Posted on 01 February 2016

Shares in miners are at their cheapest for almost 12 years having collapsed by 76pc since early 2011, but there are important reasons to stay cautious. Shares in mining companies are at their lowest levels for almost 12-years. Bargain hunters are right to be attracted to what looks like the opportunity of a lifetime, but industry experts are issuing a stark warning to those thinking of diving back in.

Gold ETF investors come roaring back

Posted on 01 February 2016

Ole Hansen, chief commodity strategist at Danish bank Saxo, says gold has been the clear winner in 2016 as the uncertainty on financial markets reduce the likelihood of rate hikes in the US and geopolitical turmoil spur safe-haven buying.

ETFs for Targeted Emerging Market Opportunities

Posted on 01 February 2016

The developing world is showing uneven growth, with countries like Russia and Brazil floundering. Consequently, investors should pick their spots in the emerging markets and pay particular attention to exchange traded funds that track tech-heavy Taiwan, India, China and Korea.

Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China’s Yuan

Posted on 01 February 2016

Some of the biggest names in the hedge-fund industry are piling up bets against China’s currency, setting up a showdown between Wall Street and the leaders of the world’s second-largest economy. Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital Management has sold off the bulk of its investments in stocks, commodities and bonds so it can focus on shorting Asian currencies, including the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar.

Return of the currency crash

Posted on 01 February 2016

Currency-market volatility has been around for decades, if not centuries. Wide gyrations in exchange rates became a staple of international financial markets after the Bretton Woods system broke down in the early 1970s, and mega-depreciations were commonplace later in the decade and through much of the 1980s, when inflation raged across much of the world.

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