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VRS - who has written 37561 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Eastern Europe attacks planned EU emissions curbs

Posted on 20 October 2014

The EU’s plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 has come under heavy assault as an increasing number of eastern European nations rally behind Poland’s threat to scupper a landmark climate deal this week.

Commodities Extend Decline to Five-Year Low on Oil to Tin

Posted on 17 October 2014

Commodities extended declines to a five-year low led by industrial metals and oil on speculation supplies are more than sufficient with prices of everything from gasoline to food falling.The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) fell 0.6 percent at 12:55 p.m. in London after dropping to the lowest since July 2009. Zinc declined 3 percent, nickel retreated 2.5 percent and West Texas Intermediate fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since June 2012.

Declines in commodity prices likely to continue through 2015, says WB report

Posted on 17 October 2014

Prices of most commodities, particularly oil, are expected to remain weak for the remainder of this year and through much of 2015, says the World Bank’s latest issue of Commodity Markets Outlook. Growing concern over a slowdown in the Euro Area and emerging economies, a strong US dollar, a well-supplied oil market and good crop prospects have contributed to a weakening of many commodity prices since the summer. The World Bank energy price index declined by about 6 percent during the third quarter, after being broadly stable in the first [...]

The Strong Dollar Weighs Heavily on the Commodities Market

Posted on 17 October 2014

Early in 2014, the commodities markets were doing surprisingly well. China’s appetite for raw material was holding up, and the International Monetary Fund was predicting a decent year of global growth, which meant rising demand for everything from o

The oil price is tumbling. Is that good or bad news for the world economy?

Posted on 17 October 2014

After declining gradually for three months, oil prices suddenly tumbled almost $4 on October 14th alone. It was the largest single-day fall in more than a year and brought the price of Brent crude, an international benchmark, to $85 a barrel. At its peak in June, a barrel had cost $115.

Recent decline in crude oil price artificial: Jim Rogers

Posted on 17 October 2014

Even as crude oil prices have dipped to all-time lows, Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings told ET Now that the decline is ‘artificial’. “Some of this (oil price decline) is artificial. OPEC is trying to drive down prices because of Shale competition. The oil situation is very artificial at the moment.”

Saudi Arabia tests US ties with oil price

Posted on 17 October 2014

By encouraging oil prices to fall, Saudi Arabia is taking a calculated gamble in its already strained relationship with the US, hoping that the potential damage to America’s shale industry will be offset by the geopolitical and economic prizes on offer to Washington.

Saudis, other Gulf states to oppose OPEC output cuts

Posted on 17 October 2014

Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are set to oppose any cut to OPEC’s oil production ceiling at next month’s meeting despite the continuing fall in global oil prices, according to several people familiar with the situation. Despite the drop in prices, Gulf nations fear any lowering of the limit on the amount that can be produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would lead to members of the cartel losing share in global oil markets.

How Has The Federal Reserve Impacted Gold Since 2009?

Posted on 17 October 2014

The last five years will be forever marked on the history books with some of the most innovative, aggressive and controversial actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve ever. There are critics and there are fans of former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and perhaps the jury is still out on his overall handling of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Is gold set for a bull run?

Posted on 17 October 2014

Gold prices could be set for a boom in the coming weeks as stock market jitters, Diwali celebrations and bulk-buying by the Swiss creates a perfect precious metal storm. Yesterday, the FTSE 100 dropped a mammoth 2.8 per cent, with other worldwide markets also suffering.

Gold price higher on safe-haven buying, US dollar retreats

Posted on 17 October 2014

Gold prices held at higher levels after a spate of poor US data in the previous session boosted the metal above resistance levels and weighed on the dollar. The spot gold price was last at $1,242.70/1,243.40 per ounce, u $2.70 on Wednesday’s closing level and bubbling just below the month high hit in yesterday’s session at $1,250.

The Real Reason Behind Gold’s October Surge

Posted on 17 October 2014

On October 6 when GLD was trading for $114, I outlined a surprising case for the bullish trend change in the precious metals by asking the question accompanying the chart below, “What is this a chart of?”

Why Murenbeeld Thinks Gold Will Hit $1,335

Posted on 17 October 2014

It seems hard to find someone who is bullish on gold prices these days but this economist thinks $1,335 gold may not be far-fetched. “One of the things that tend to be overlooked…is that the real interest rate in the U.S., particularly at the short end, is going to remain negative right through 2015,” he said.

LBMA names Morgan Stanley as gold, silver market maker

Posted on 17 October 2014

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said on Thursday it appointed Morgan Stanley as a market maker, underscoring the ambitions of some banks to expand into precious metals trading while others exit due to stringent regulations.

LME to run palladium and platinum price benchmarks

Posted on 17 October 2014

The London Metal Exchange will administer the digital price-setting mechanism for palladium and platinum, months after a failed bid to run the replacement for the daily silver benchmark.

HSBC Bullish On Platinum Group Metals But Trims Forecasts

Posted on 17 October 2014

HSBC maintained its bullish outlook on platinum group metals but trimmed its price forecasts Thursday. The bank described platinum as “oversold” after a decline in recent months, dragged down by weakness in gold and strength in the U.S. dollar.

Metals sector welcomes pro-industry direction of EU’s incoming commission team

Posted on 17 October 2014

Europe’s non-ferrous metals associations have said they are positive about the reindustrialisation policy of the new European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.

Goldman Sachs in talks to acquire ETF provider IndexIQ

Posted on 17 October 2014

Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N) is in discussions to acquire IndexIQ, a Rye Brook, New York-based exchange-traded fund provider, according to three sources familiar with the situation. The deal, if finalised, would enable Goldman to introduce passively managed and actively managed exchange traded funds within months.

Nasdaq Lists iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF

Posted on 17 October 2014

iShares is offering another exchange traded fund for investors. Nasdaq announced that BlackRock will list a new exchange-traded fund, the iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF (Symbol: COMT). COMT will begin trading on Nasdaq today, October 16th.

In Currency Markets, The Safest Haven Is Yen, Not the Dollar

Posted on 17 October 2014

Concerns about slowing global growth are sending investors into assets that hold their value in turbulent times, such as U.S. Treasurys, German bunds and gold. But among currencies, the haven is more likely to be the Japanese yen than the U.S. dollar.

Russia’s Currency Crisis: This Is So 2008!

Posted on 17 October 2014

Are you getting that “it’s kinda like 2008 again” feeling? I am! In November of 2008, the Russian ruble was collapsing vs. the dollar, the Russian central bank was intervening in the foreign exchange market, Russian interest rates had risen to high levels, and I was writing an op-ed about it.

Treasury finds no currency manipulation

Posted on 17 October 2014

The U.S. Treasury refrained on Wednesday from labeling any major trading partner a currency manipulator, but said that the currencies of China and South Korea should strengthen. In its twice-a-year assessment of international foreign exchange,Treasury once again said no country had met the statutory test of manipulation. The U.S. last cited China as a manipulator in 1994.

Merkel says Europe must reform emissions trading scheme quickly

Posted on 17 October 2014

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday that Europe must agree quickly on a reform of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and as part of that, surplus CO2 certificates must be reduced.
“The German government will push for a clear signal for a quick and sustainable reform of the Emission Trading Scheme. It is and remains the central instrument to fight climate change in Europe,” Merkel told the Bundestag lower house of parliament in a speech………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Steelmakers must embrace low carbon shift if they are to secure their future

Posted on 17 October 2014

The EU steel industry’s future depends on working with policy-makers to embrace low carbon and energy efficient practices, a new study has concluded. Research partnership Climate Strategies this week outlined how investment in exploiting the remaining energy efficiency potential of the industry, shifting from coal to gas-fired energy, and deploying carbon capture technology can help create a sustainable competitive advantage for the European steel sector.

The next paradigm in commodities: Trade houses vs banks

Posted on 16 October 2014

Agri-business services are dominated by two industries: First, trade houses provide services that vertically integrate from farmers to consumers. Second, financial institutions horizontally integrate the value chain by facilitating an efficient transfer of capital. There is a sweet spot where these two industries intersect in their service offerings: Risk management and Trade financing.

Commodities Sink to Five-Year Low Led by Metals Declines

Posted on 16 October 2014

Commodities dropped to a five-year low on growing concern that slower economic growth will cool demand in China, the world’s top consumer of metals, grains and energy. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) of 22 raw materials fell as much as much as 1.3 percent yesterday to the lowest since July 2009. Copper futures dropped by the most since March on the Comex, while hog prices posted the biggest loss in 25 months.

Investors cooling towards commodities

Posted on 16 October 2014

Investors have been showing a more negative sentiment towards commodities in the past few weeks, ETF Securities has found. In its latest 10-page research note, the exchange-traded fund provider also noted that improvement in the US economy and labour market should benefit cyclical assets.

Flat commodities may be investors’ chance

Posted on 16 October 2014

The drop in the iron ore, oil and coal prices has spooked the local market, prompting a selloff of local resources businesses. While the outlook for these commodities remains subdued, this could prompt buying opportunities if shares whose prices are affected by movements in commodity prices continue to fall.

Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging

Posted on 16 October 2014

Oil prices posted their biggest one-day drop in nearly two years Tuesday as a U.S.-led wave of crude has crashed into weak global demand, threatening the stability of some countries and providing an economic lifeline to others.

Winners and losers from oil price plunge

Posted on 16 October 2014

Crude oil prices have plunged by $25, or more than 20 per cent, since mid-June, raising many questions. How low might prices go? If they rebound, at what level will they stabilise? Will Saudi Arabia and Opec move to cut output when they meet next month? At what price level might US shale oil production be affected and how severely?

What’s behind the drop in oil prices?

Posted on 16 October 2014

From oversupply and waning demand to economic concerns and politics — experts offer their views. Oil prices have been in a free-fall for nearly four months, and Tuesday’s $4 plunge was the biggest drop in more than two years.

Oil-Price Slump Is Double-Edged Sword for Asia

Posted on 16 October 2014

Falling crude prices are a boon to Asia, reducing costs for businesses and consumers and giving authorities room to lower interest rates amid slow global economic growth. Yet the world’s largest oil-importing region still could suffer if crude prices fall further, after declining this week to two-year lows in the U.S.

Saudi supply games expose OPEC impotence

Posted on 16 October 2014

The oil price is in free fall, down 27 per cent since June and 13 per cent so far in October. Saudi Arabia, the world’s traditional swing producer, has done nothing to defend the $100 (U.S.) a barrel floor price for Brent crude, which had not been breached since July, 2012. Why?

Oil market proves mightier than OPEC: Kemp

Posted on 16 October 2014

There is nothing remotely surprising about the sharp fall in oil prices over the last four months, except perhaps the timing. The fundamental forces driving prices lower (rising supply outside OPEC from shale and sluggish demand growth as result of conservation and substitution) have been clearly visible for at least two years.

Gold, silver doldrums to continue in 2015 - Natixis

Posted on 16 October 2014

Noting that events in the United States are expected to exert the biggest impact on gold prices as they continue to disintegrate investors’ need for a safe haven, Natixis Commodities Research has predicted a gold price base forecast of an average of $1,170/oz in 2015 and $1,180 in 2016.

Gold price vs Dow Jones shows metal still cheap

Posted on 16 October 2014

On Wednesday gold futures enjoyed another up day, lifting the price of the precious metal to a five-week high on the back of a huge selloff on equity markets after surprisingly weak economic data from the US. In late afternoon trade on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold for December delivery was changing hands for $1,241.70 an ounce, up $7.40 from yesterday’s close.

Societe Generale Trims Forecasts For Platinum, Palladium

Posted on 16 October 2014

Societe Generale is “cautious” on platinum group metals and downwardly revised its forecasts. Prices have tumbled in recent weeks, and while speculators remain net long, their bullish positioning has fallen since mid-August as the number of shorts increased, Societe Generale says. Outflows from exchange-traded funds have occurred.

Most industrial metals likely to move up next year

Posted on 16 October 2014

Copper is likely to trade lower on concerns of weak Chinese demand, along with trimming of its global economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Other industrial metals, however, are expected to buck the broad trend and strengthen in 2015.

Thomson Reuters Publishes GFMS Copper Survey Update 2014

Posted on 16 October 2014

Thomson Reuters today released an interim update to the 2014 edition of the GFMS Copper Survey: Growth spurt in supply as global consumption slows, sets scene for further price weakness. Copper is forecast to average $6,810/tonne in 2014 (3-month LME), a 7.3% decline year-on-year.

Domestic Chinese high-carbon ferrochrome prices fall; stainless steel demand weak

Posted on 16 October 2014

Domestic spot prices of 50% Cr Chinese high-carbon ferrochrome were at Yuan 6,200-6,400/mt (equivalent to 76-79 cents/lb) on Wednesday, down from Yuan 6,250-6,400/mt a week ago, after major stainless steelmakers in the country lowered their October purchase prices.

Safe-Haven Bets Help Gold ETFs Shine

Posted on 16 October 2014

Gold exchange traded funds are regaining some safe-haven demand as traders pushed up bullion to its highest in four weeks in response to rising volatility in the equities market.

Oil Collapse Highlights ETF Differences

Posted on 16 October 2014

Crude oil prices are plummeting this week, accelerating a steep downward trajectory that took hold this summer, thanks to an abundance of supplies that’s met by weakening global demand. This supply/demand imbalance has pushed WTI crude and the global benchmark Brent to multiyear lows in a decline that is showing no signs of stopping.

The Most Popular ETF Debuts of 2014

Posted on 16 October 2014

Despite recent global unrest and questions about global growth, United States equity markets remain near record highs, and the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, with still-declining unemployment, solid growth, and modest inflation.

Hall Commodities Hedge Fund Shutting After Poor Performance

Posted on 16 October 2014

Hall Commodities LLP, a London-based $100 million hedge-fund firm run by Tony Hall and Arno Pilz, told clients it’s shutting down after less than two years in business, citing poor performance.

China’s currency undervalued, Germany can boost Europe’s growth

Posted on 16 October 2014

The Obama administration said Wednesday that China has made strides in recent months to let its currency appreciate but that the yuan is still deeply undervalued. The Treasury Department said China’s yuan — also known as the renminbi, or RMB — “remains significantly undervalued,” but didn’t go as far as to name China or any other nation a currency manipulator in its semiannual report to Congress.

Currency Trading Is Both Boon and Bane for Wall Street

Posted on 16 October 2014

Foreign-exchange trading is once again fueling revenue at Wall Street banks. It also remains one of their biggest headaches. Currencies bolstered third-quarter results of bond-trading desks at the three biggest U.S. banks, an unexpected boon as prosecutors weigh charges over allegations that traders rigged foreign-exchange rates.

Europe needs to fix or ditch its emissions trading scheme

Posted on 16 October 2014

Without a complete overhaul, this flawed policy needs to be scrapped to make way for more effective means of meeting proposed 40% cuts in carbon emissions by 2030. If leaks are to be believed, when European council members meet next week, they will agree a headline target of a 40% cut in greenhouse gases by 2030 and a rag bag of assorted, non-binding targets that are intended to add up to a coherent energy and climate package.

EU carbon allowance surplus set to double by 2020

Posted on 16 October 2014

Europe’s carbon allowance surplus could more than double by the end of the decade, undermining its ability to deliver long term emissions reductions, according to campaign group Sandbag.

World Economy Gives Investors Growth Scare as They Look to U.S.

Posted on 16 October 2014

The global economy faces its biggest test of confidence since the European sovereign debt crisis as investors fear it’s running out of engines. Japan and the euro area are throwing up fresh signs of weakness by the day and emerging markets such as China are dragging instead of driving growth.

How will EMs be affected by commodity price declines?

Posted on 15 October 2014

Credit Suisse has a new report out on the winners and losers of the recent rout in global natural resource prices. While everyone has been paying attention to the remarkable decline in the value of oil, agricultural commodities and industrial metals have also become a lot cheaper recently:

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