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VRS - who has written 47920 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Amey: Oil Market Volatility More Behind Us than in Front

Posted on 28 September 2016

Suddenly the tables have been turned on Saudi Arabia. The biggest oil exporter has swapped its traditional role as price dove with regional foe Iran, for years OPEC price hawk. The government in Riyadh is now offering a deal — including its first output cut in eight years — to boost prices; Tehran is dragging its feet.

OPEC, Oil Glut on Minds of Commodities Traders

Posted on 28 September 2016

Oil traders are betting on a deal that would cap production, one that could hinge on two polarized, but key, Middle Eastern oil producers - Saudi Arabia and Iran. The two oil-producing powerhouses can’t seem to agree on any production level cuts. Earlier in 2016, Saudi Arabia indicated it would cut production — but only if Iran agreed to curb its own production to 3.6 million barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs trims its oil price forecast as supply surplus grows

Posted on 28 September 2016

U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the price of oil price, saying its supply-demand balance for the fourth quarter of 2016 is weaker than previously expected. “We are lowering our (fourth quarter) forecast to $43 (per barrel) from $50 (per barrel) previously,” a commodity research team at the bank, led by Damien Courvalin, said.

Growth rate cut for one of OPEC’s newest members

Posted on 28 September 2016

The economy of Indonesia, one of the newest members of OPEC, is on the decline, but could recover as policy reforms take hold, the Asian Development Bank said. The ADB said Tuesday it trimmed its forecast for growth in Indonesia from 5.2 percent to 5 percent. Next year’s growth rate should be around 5.1 percent, a decline from the March estimate by the ADB of 5.5 percent.

OPEC freeze not likely, but Nigerian oil minister says ‘honesty’ is real progress

Posted on 28 September 2016

A freeze in production by OPEC members would not include Nigeria, according to the country’s oil minister, who said the real progress at the oil cartel’s meeting in Algeria had been honesty.

Iran rejects Saudi offer to cap oil output ahead of Opec meeting

Posted on 28 September 2016

Tehran wants 13% of oil cartel’s production before any agreement to curb production. Iran has dealt a severe blow to Saudi-led efforts to curb oil production and reverse the two-year-old downturn in crude prices by rejecting an offer from Riyadh to cap output, sending Brent down more than 3.5 per cent.

Gold Lower as Trump Presidency Seems Less Likely After Debate

Posted on 28 September 2016

The price of gold edged lower Tuesday as investors concluded that the first U.S. presidential debate made a Donald Trump presidency less likely. Gold for December delivery was recently down 0.9% at $1,331.50 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold Price Predictions: Can Gold Reach $1,900 per Ounce?

Posted on 28 September 2016

Gold prices have hovered well above $1,300 an ounce since mid-2016, but can it really reach $1,900 an ounce by the end of the year? No doubt, it’s been an eventful year for the gold price, having increased significantly from $1,076.30 per ounce to $1,337.00 as of 4:09 p.m. EST on Monday (September 26, 2016).

Mitsubishi: Gold Headed For Quarterly Gain On Investment Demand

Posted on 28 September 2016

Gold is on track for its third straight quarterly price gain thanks to investment demand, reports Mitsubishi. While down from the July high for the year, spot gold is still higher than on the final day of the second quarter. “Gold is likely to register a third successive quarter of…gains – its best performance since 2011 when bullion was on the run-up to its all-time nominal high,” Mitsubishi says.

Gold Mining ‘Needs New Discoveries’ as M&A Rejected on Bad Memories, 2016 Price Jump

Posted on 28 September 2016

Gold prices in China – the world’s No.1 gold mining, importing and consumer market – held firm overnight, fixing at the Shanghai Gold Exchange little changed from before the weekend, but edging down to a $2.85 per ounce premium above comparable Dollar quotes for metal settled in London.

Can the Rally in Silver Continue?

Posted on 28 September 2016

Commodities like gold and silver have surged this year, thanks to geopolitical uncertainty like “Brexit,” the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to raise its main interest rate and foreign buyers. But with the price of silver up nearly 40% year-to-date, investors are wondering whether it can continue. Experts say it may have more room to run, particularly as global interest rates continue to stay negative.

Silver Prices Fall Deeper into Narrowing Range

Posted on 28 September 2016

While the price of silver oscillates back-and-forth in the converging range, so do we in examining the metal from varying time-frames. Today we will take a close up look to see where it is likely headed in the very short-term.

Japanese diecast aluminum market weighed down by excess supply

Posted on 28 September 2016

Japanese diecast aluminum alloy prices were capped despite the strong yen encouraging imports, because of excess domestic supply, market sources said. Import trades picked up this week on the stronger yen at Yen 100.50-100.70 to a dollar compared with Yen 101-102 last week.

Smart beta surge counters downwards trend for ETF fees

Posted on 28 September 2016

The “relentless march” of more complex exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has curtailed a downward trend in fees and put pressure on income strategies’ dominance of the smart beta market. A global guide to the industry produced by data provider Morningstar has found the growth of the market in Europe is increasingly being driven by the rise of more complicated strategies.

Sebi reviews portfolio managers norms for commodity markets

Posted on 28 September 2016

Markets regultaor Sebi today said it is reviewing norms to allow portfolio managers in the commodity markets. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) further said that currently Portfolio Manager Services (PMS) would not be permissible in the commodity markets.

Sberbank gets international membership at Shanghai Gold

Posted on 28 September 2016

Sberbank (Switzerland) AG has become an international member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), Sberbank CIB, the corporate and investment banking business of Sberbank, said on Tuesday.

China’s Currency? That’s the Least of the Problems for the Next U.S. Leader

Posted on 28 September 2016

In his video documentary “Death by China” the economist Peter Navarro, a Donald Trump adviser, promptly shows a Chinese dagger plunging into the heart of America, as blood spurts from the wound. Almost as quickly, the Republican presidential nominee raised the Chinese threat in his debate with Hillary Clinton on Monday night. He identified China as a currency cheat that steals American jobs. China, he said, “is the best ever at it.”

Currency traders waiting on Czexit signs

Posted on 28 September 2016

The Czech koruna could be just weeks away from relinquishing its title as the world’s most boring currency. This title is no accident. In late 2013, the country’s central bank took drastic action, setting an upper limit on the currency as a way to deflect deflationary pressures.

Study: U.S. is falling short on 2025 emissions goals

Posted on 28 September 2016

Unless it does more, the United States probably will fall short of goals set under last year’s Paris agreement to dramatically reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases, according to a new study.

Airlines and NGOs unite in calling for bold aviation emissions deal

Posted on 28 September 2016

An aviation emissions offset appears set for take-off, but environmental campaigners warn it does not go far enough. The long-awaited general meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) kicks off in Montreal today with hopes running high that the UN-backed body is poised to deliver an historic agreement to tackle aviation emissions.

Commodities, Fines and Steak

Posted on 27 September 2016

As far as I know there are no capital requirements for trading oil. Planet Money bought and sold some oil this year, and they are a public radio show. Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway bought some last year and sold it to Izabella Kaminska, who then defaulted on the trade.

Chinese Commodities Strategy - Food For Thought

Posted on 27 September 2016

China is the world’s most populous nation with over 1.37 billion people. China is a significant producer of raw materials - the country has tremendous reserves of minerals and metals and the capacity to produce enormous quantities of agricultural products.

How to Invest in the Commodities Turnaround

Posted on 27 September 2016

It’s been a rough couple of years for the commodities group. Investors nearly abandoned most of the sector during this time, leaving energy and fertilizer stocks in the dust. But in 2016, there was some relief. Gold has rebounded and is up 20% year-to-date. Oil hit lows in February but has bounced off that level and hasn’t re-visited it.

Bets on higher oil price take biggest cut since 2014

Posted on 27 September 2016

Hedge funds and speculators slashed their bets on a higher oil price by the most in more than two years as Opec and other big producers gather in Algiers this week to discuss a possible deal to limit output.

No OPEC deal expected, though it would have had impact: CNBC Oil Survey

Posted on 27 September 2016

OPEC producers could have a significant impact on oil prices if they agree to a production freeze, but it’s unlikely they’ll get it done at this week’s meeting in Algiers, according to a new CNBC Oil Survey.

Iran Plays Down Prospects of OPEC Production Deal

Posted on 27 September 2016

Iranian officials played down expectations for an oil-production deal, calling an OPEC gathering here this week “consultative,” and renewed their vow to pump output higher.

Oil market investment needed soon to balance market: Schlumberger CEO

Posted on 27 September 2016

Investment in exploration and production will have to start increasing soon to help balance the global oil market, Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard said.

No sign of oil freeze at home as Russia meets OPEC

Posted on 27 September 2016

As Russian energy minister Alexander Novak flies to Algeria this week for talks with OPEC on output cuts, developments at home indicate non-OPEC Russia is not preparing for any coordinated production action.

Citi Sees $1,320/Oz Gold In 4Q, Resilient Indian Demand In Coming Years

Posted on 27 September 2016

Citi Research sees gold easing slightly in the fourth quarter to an average of $1,320 an ounce as the Federal Open Market Committee hikes U.S. interest rates for the first time in a year. Meanwhile, in a special section of the bank’s quarterly commodity forecast released overnight, Citi said Indian demand for gold and certain other commodities – such as crude oil and power — is likely to be helped by rising incomes during the next half of a decade.

Gold price: ‘Buying fatigue’ could be a turning point

Posted on 27 September 2016

Bullish bets on price rising fall as US presidential election and possible interest rates rise add to pressure. Gold could be facing a turning point at the end of what has so far proved to be one of its best years for four decades.

Gold Will Likely Soar To A Record

Posted on 27 September 2016

“Gold will likely soar to a record within five years as asset bubbles burst in everything from bonds to credit and equities, forcing investors to find a haven”, reported Bloomberg last week, quoting Old Mutual Global Investors’ Diego Parrilla.

Investing in gold is the best ‘speculative’ bet there is today

Posted on 27 September 2016

Gold, simply put, is an investment. And I try to view it as such, based on the current macro and market conditions. It’s moderately risky as far as investments go, sure. But anyone who tries to paint the precious metal as a bulwark against disaster or a pitfall to be perpetually avoided is missing a key piece of the market puzzle.

Zinc Price Forecast, September 2016: Metal in Deficit

Posted on 27 September 2016

A recent report from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group found the global market for refined zinc was in deficit from January to July, with total reported inventories declining over the same time frame.

The Future Lies In Lithium - Speaker (Video)

Posted on 27 September 2016

Although he remains bullish on gold, House Mountain Partners president Chris Berry says he is really optimistic on energy metals like lithium and cobalt. “Despite the funk that a lot of the mining sector has been in for a while, it’s clear that the lithiums and cobalts will grow in terms of demand,” he said.

Gold price: Hedge funds, ETF investors show buying fatigue

Posted on 27 September 2016

Gold touched a two-year high in July around $1,380 an ounce and year to date the metal is up 26% or close to $280 an ounce, one of its best annual performances since 1980. But there are signs that buying fatigue has set in for both hedge funds active on the derivatives market and institutional and retail buyers of physically-backed gold exchange traded funds.

What’s Next for Gold and Silver ETFs

Posted on 27 September 2016

The SPDR Gold Shares, iShares Gold Trust and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares and other gold-related exchange traded products got a bit of a reprieve last week when the Federal Reserve again opted against raising interest rates.

Getting Near Time for Nat Gas ETFs

Posted on 27 September 2016

The United States Natural Gas Fund and the iPath Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN along with other natural gas-related exchange traded products are often subject to seasonal trends. With winter approaching, the seasonality of natural gas could be advantage for the commodity.

India: Sebi issues disclosure norm for commodity exchanges

Posted on 27 September 2016

Markets regulator Sebi today asked commodity exchanges to make quarterly disclosure about disablement of member terminals, along with duration of such activity, due to shortage of funds and margins.

Is HK a threat to Singapore’s lead in Asia FX trading ?

Posted on 27 September 2016

Singapore remains the world’s third largest foreign exchange (FX) centre and Asia’s biggest, according to the 2016 Triennial Central Bank Survey by the Bank for International Settlement. This is no mean feat but with perennial rival Hong Kong snapping at its heels, an interesting question is whether the Republic’s status as the largest FX Asian centre is under threat.

Forex Trading Has Gone Social

Posted on 27 September 2016

Forex social trading is a rapidly growing trend across the globe. Social investment networks allow investors to copy profitable trading strategies from other investors in their network or share their market knowledge with other traders, sometimes for a profit.

UK Official Has High Hopes for China’s Carbon Market

Posted on 27 September 2016

As China prepares to launch the world’s biggest carbon trading market next year, the British foreign secretary’s special representative on climate change has said he has high hopes that the scheme will help accelerate China’s transition from coal plants to wind farms, solar and nuclear power, and other sustainable energies.

India to ratify Paris Agreement on October 2

Posted on 27 September 2016

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announces his government will ratify the climate agreement on Gandhi’s birthday. India will ratify the Paris Agreement on October 2, the birthday of Mahatma Gandhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced.

Is Investor Appetite for Commodities Picking Up? (Video)

Posted on 26 September 2016

Tim Evans, Long Leaf Trading Group’s founder and chief market strategist, discusses the outlook for gold and oil prices with Bloomberg’s David Gura and Vonnie Quinn on “Bloomberg Markets.”.

Commodity market is not for investors

Posted on 26 September 2016

It is a place where users can hedge to mitigate the risk in the physical market. Commodity exchanges are witnessing a lot of action since SEBI took charge. With the trading and other processes getting streamlined, these could be an alternate asset class that investors could consider in the future.

Oil market’s expectations low for Opec production deal

Posted on 26 September 2016

Saudi Arabia has set out its terms to join the first co-ordinated Opec production cut since the financial crisis. The only problem for an oversupplied oil market is few think it will be achieved. As the world’s largest oil producers descend on Algeria this week for crunch talks on ending a two-year old supply glut, Opec’s biggest members remain far apart.

Opec plans fresh oil price talks says energy minister

Posted on 26 September 2016

Oil producers in the Opec group of countries will make another attempt this week to reverse a slump in crude prices, according to Algeria’s energy minister. Noureddine Bouterfa said there would be an informal gathering of Opec members on the sidelines of a energy conference in Algiers on Wednesday.

Saudis Willing to Act on ‘Critical’ Oil Market, Algeria Says

Posted on 26 September 2016

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has offered to cut its output to January levels, Algeria’s energy minister said as he prepared to host a meeting of OPEC producers later this week.

World Oil Market May Re-Balance in Late 2017 - Russian Energy Minister

Posted on 26 September 2016

The comment comes ahead of an expected informal Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting with non-OPEC oil producing countries on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF) on September 26-28 in Algeria.

Citi Warns on Gold as Bank Boosts Odds of Trump Win to 40%

Posted on 26 September 2016

Gold may be in for a bumpy ride in the final quarter as Republican candidate Donald Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning the presidential election and investors will be preparing for the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates, according to Citigroup Inc.

Significant Upside In Gold ‘Less Likely’ – Nouriel Roubini

Posted on 26 September 2016

Although gold prices didn’t actually hit $1,000 as one famed economist predicted, he continues to remain bearish on the yellow metal. This was Nouriel Roubini’s main message in his keynote address at CME Group’s annual dinner in New York.

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