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VRS - who has written 45982 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Goldman Singles Out Zinc as ‘Bullish Exception’ Among Metals

Posted on 20 May 2016

Zinc stands alone, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The New York-based bank has raised its forecasts for the next year on tightening supply and robust demand in China, highlighting its positive prospects in contrast to the “very bearish” outlook seen for all other base metals.

Lesser-known metals poised for price increases: zinc, niobium, uranium

Posted on 20 May 2016

Much like the perennial predictions of an imminent price breakout of gold, zinc, uranium, and niobium have been the subjects of similar predictions that have thus far been uniformly wrong. Despite the fact that each of these three lesser-followed metals have good fundamental reasons to be heading higher, they have clung stubbornly to the status quo. That is, until recently.

The 3 Best Silver ETFs

Posted on 20 May 2016

A silver ETF should closely track the performance of the silver index for the physical commodity. Likewise, a silver mining ETF should track and magnify the gain and losses of silver as it rises and falls. Amid a dearth of silver ETF choices, these three funds do exactly what they should. iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners, iShares Silver Trust, and Global X Silver Miners ETF.

Norway’s krone leads commodity currencies fallers

Posted on 20 May 2016

A combination of a weaker oil price and more aggressive Federal Reserve hits commodity currencies. Commodity currencies began what looked like a sure and steady retreat from 2016 highs, bowing to the strength of the dollar and a market warming to the idea of a midyear US rate rise.

Japan and the U.S. are headed for a showdown over currency manipulation

Posted on 20 May 2016

Investors will be watching for signs of tension between Japanese and U.S. powers this weekend, when central bankers and finance chiefs face off in Sendai, a city northeast of Tokyo, for the latest Group of 7 summit.

Time to Put China’s Currency Back on Worry List

Posted on 20 May 2016

The factors supporting a stable yuan—a weakening dollar and a stabilizing Chinese economy—are reversing. Earthquakes are hard to predict. Tremors in China’s currency, however, have been easier to spot.

Industry, competitiveness, and the fifth carbon budget

Posted on 20 May 2016

EEF’s Richard Warren argues there is little reason for industry to be concerned about the impact of an ambitious new carbon budget on competitiveness - in fact it could provide a boost to UK manufacturers. The government has just six weeks remaining to set the level of the fifth carbon budget and bring it into legislation. Parliamentary timetables being what they are, we can therefore expect to hear something in the next two to three weeks.

UN Negotiators Spar Over Draft Global Aviation Emissions Reduction Scheme

Posted on 20 May 2016

The 191 members of the UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) tussled last week over a draft resolution to establish a global market-based measure (GMBM) to help meet the sector’s goal of carbon neutral growth from 2020 during a meeting held in Montreal, Canada, from 11-13 May.

Why the Outlook for Emerging Markets Is Improving

Posted on 20 May 2016

After suffering one of their worst performances in years during 2015, emerging markets are rebounding in 2016. Using the MSCI Emerging Markets index as a benchmark, emerging markets gained nearly 9 percent in the last three months, rising high enough to wipe out a shaky start to the year. Year-to-date, the index is up about 1.58 percent – a huge improvement after last year’s 21.6 percent drop.

Commodities indebted to the past

Posted on 19 May 2016

Commodity prices have been on a tear of late. Last year’s dogs, such as oil and iron ore, have soared. With oil approaching $50 a barrel this week, Goldman Sachs has turned more bullish on its prospects, and Chinese speculators have pushed up the price of iron ore by as much as 50 per cent.

Investor sentiment on commodities turns positive: Lloyds

Posted on 19 May 2016

Investors have turned positive towards commodities for the first time since November, according to the latest Lloyds Private Banking survey. The monthly Lloyds Bank Private Banking Investor Sentiment index measures net investor sentiment towards an asset class, showing the difference between those with a positive and a negative outlook for the next six months.

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Commodities

Posted on 19 May 2016

Goldman Sachs downgraded equities to “neutral” over a 12-month time-frame on growth and valuation concerns, but upgraded commodities to “neutral” on a three-month basis saying there was less downside potential to oil prices.

Kuwait Says Oil Near $50 Shows OPEC’s Strategy Is Working

Posted on 19 May 2016

OPEC’s strategy to defend market share over prices is working as oil approaches $50 a barrel amid rising demand and declining output from producers including U.S. shale companies, Kuwait’s acting oil minister said.

Five things to watch for as oil nears $50 a barrel

Posted on 19 May 2016

There are key factors that can fuel crude beyond $50 or stall the near 80% price rally. As the price of crude oil nears $50 a barrel for the first time this year, traders are split over whether the near 80 per cent rally since prices bottomed in January can keep going.

Oil outages speeding up new world energy order

Posted on 19 May 2016

The world’s oil market is rebalancing faster than expected due to several serious outages, but for now there is enough oil in storage and excess capacity to keep prices from spiking.

It’s Saudi Arabia’s World. Big Oil Just Lives In It

Posted on 19 May 2016

When Saudi Arabia nationalized its oil industry in 1980, it marked the end of an era dominated by western majors such as Exxon, Chevron and BP. The proposed re-privatization of those same oilfields threatens to upend their world once again. Getting kicked out of the Middle East forced the majors to exploit other tourist traps, such as the North Sea.

Where Oil Production Is Set To Soar… And It’s Not OPEC

Posted on 19 May 2016

Oil prices have been on the rise lately and the market appears to be heading very quickly toward rebalancing, which is very positive for long-oriented investors in this space. While this is all true, however, one area will make any such oil recovery harder than it otherwise would be.

Oil market unlikely to rebalance fully by year-end: Total CEO

Posted on 19 May 2016

Oil demand in 2016 will stay strong, supporting prices, but the market is unlikely to rebalance by the year end, the chief executive of French oil and gas major Total said. Patrick Pouyanne told a French Senate committee that oil demand rose sharply in 2015 to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), increasing at about 2 percent in a single year.

Gold price volatility to continue as investor interest rises

Posted on 19 May 2016

Gold ’s safe-haven allure continues to attract more investors, but one veteran precious metals strategist warns that the higher interest makes the metal subject to price volatility. “Large open interest may add to volatile moves as headlines may influence prices and as many open orders are held back for now,” said George Gero, managing director for RBC Wealth Management.

Gold’s Glow Could Continue To $2,000 - Gerald Celente

Posted on 19 May 2016

Gold continues to shine, up some 20% year-to-date, and one famed trends forecaster remains positive on the metal. “We maintain our forecast that should gold stabilize above $1,400 per ounce, we anticipate a sharp gold spike toward $2,000,” says Gerald Celente in a research note Wednesday.

Gold Prices: One Big Reason Why $2,000 Gold Could Be Possible

Posted on 19 May 2016

Something just happened in the gold market that suggests gold prices are severely undervalued. Don’t expect to read this in the mainstream financial publications. Gold buyers are increasing in numbers.

Why Silver Prices Fluctuate

Posted on 19 May 2016

Silver prices have been very bullish in 2016. They have risen a very healthy 20% year to date, despite short-term pullbacks in late April and early May. The five-year silver bear market of 2010-2015 appears to be over.

Iron Ore Faces Second-Half Slump as Frenzy Cools, Supply Builds

Posted on 19 May 2016

After last month’s speculative rally, iron ore is likely to extend declines because of rising supply from the major producers and faltering demand in China, the biggest buyer. “Supply is likely to increase in the second half, so market conditions may ease further,” Rajiv Mukerji, group director of strategic procurement at Tata Steel Ltd., said.

Copper touches three-month low, hit by stronger dollar

Posted on 19 May 2016

Copper slid to its lowest in three months on Wednesday, pressured by the dollar which rose on renewed expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes. Other industrial metals also joined the downdraft as copper reversed lower after three days of gains.

Bank of Japan enters ETF market

Posted on 19 May 2016

ETFs are so hot, even the Bank of Japan is getting into the market. The BOJ in December told Japan’s fund management industry to launch exchange traded funds, better known as ETFs, that will help further the government’s growth policies and the central bank’s massive monetary easing program.

Defensive ETFs: Too Good to Be True?

Posted on 19 May 2016

Defensive strategies, like those followed by low-volatility ETFs, can produce better risk-adjusted returns while smoothing out the highs and lows of the market. Low-volatility strategies offer defensive exposure to the stock market, attempting to give investors a smoother ride with better performance during market downturns.

There’s no reason to fear a currency war: Narayana Kocherlakota

Posted on 19 May 2016

The U.S. government seems concerned about what will happen if other big nations push down the value of their currencies against the dollar. Actually, it could be good for the global economy.

The ‘truce’ in global currency wars is on borrowed time

Posted on 19 May 2016

The Chinese metropolis of Shanghai and the city of Sendai in Japan’s north are linked by a twice-weekly three-hour flight. The cost? About £400 or, in the currencies that matter, Rmb3,800 and ¥63,000.

Agricultural emissions ‘reality check’

Posted on 19 May 2016

A new report says that global agricultural emissions must be slashed to prevent the planet warming by more than 2C over the next century. The current focus is on reducing emissions from transport and energy. But an international team of scientists argues that if farm-related emissions aren’t tackled then the Paris climate targets will be breached.

Europe needs independent carbon market regulator - Total’s CEO

Posted on 19 May 2016

Europe needs an independent carbon market regulator with clear objectives rather than the current mix of state administrators and the European Commission that has complicated the market, the chief executive of Total said on Wednesday.

EU ministers approve final commodity price benchmark rules

Posted on 18 May 2016

EU ministers Tuesday approved the final text of EU rules that will govern all benchmarks used to price financial instruments, including commodity price benchmarks, on behalf of the EU Council. The rules will apply to commodity price benchmarks produced by price reporting agencies such as S&P Global Platts.

Commodity price slump creates opportunities for resource cooperation

Posted on 18 May 2016

Weaker global commodity prices were creating opportunities for resource-rich nations to find shared solutions, Western Australia’s Mines and Energy Minister Sean L’Estrange said. L’Estrange noted that an agreement announced between iron-ore majors Fortescue Metals and Vale earlier this year, demonstrated how competitors could work together to find innovative solutions to common challenges.

The Commodity That No One Knows About But Everybody Wants to Buy

Posted on 18 May 2016

The world’s mines and steel plants got so devalued during the commodity slump that some were just given away by owners struggling to cut losses or debt. But there’s at least one metal that’s been attracting a lot of attention.

How To Play The Oil Price Rebound

Posted on 18 May 2016

It’s not surprising that skepticism persists about signs of an oil industry rebound. After all, the sharp decline in oil prices since mid-2014 brought huge damage to a lot of industries and the stock market — particularly to investors in energy stocks. Indeed, the surprise 75% decline in oil has been a tough headwind to global growth.

Is Saudi Arabia calling the market’s bluff over oil?

Posted on 18 May 2016

Oil market watchers have been keeping a close eye on Saudi Arabia ever since it announced last month that it could very well increase oil production if and when it wanted to, but analysts at Energy Aspects explained on Tuesday that the major oil producer could be calling the market’s bluff.

Oil nears $50 mark

Posted on 18 May 2016

What oil glut? Oil Futures continued to advance early Tuesday amid concern over the impact week-long wildfires in Canada have had on that country’s output as well as security fears in producers Nigeria, Libya and the Middle East.

Algeria signs oil, gas deal as OPEC member seeks to boost sales

Posted on 18 May 2016

Algeria will supply oil and other energy products to Jordan for the first time under a memorandum of understanding signed on Monday, as the OPEC member seeks to diversify sales after years of stagnating crude production.

Soros and Paulson go head-to-head in the gold market

Posted on 18 May 2016

From two of the world’s most renowned billionaire investors, George Soros and John Paulson, there can be only one winner. Soros, via his Soros Fund Management portfolio, has piled back into the gold markets, while notorious gold bull Paulson has gone the other way.

Moody’s predicts gold price will remain volatile, despite recent rally

Posted on 18 May 2016

Following Moody’s large-scale review of the global mining sector in January, the ratings agency expected the price of gold to remain volatile. In a report released on Tuesday, Moody’s anticipated capital spending for gold miners – which fell to $8-billion in 2015 from $23-billion in 2012 – to remain at diminished levels.

Gold Investment Surge ‘Marks Major Price Low’

Posted on 18 May 2016

Gold investment prices slipped to 3-session lows beneath $1270 per ounce in London trade Tuesday, retreating 1.4% from yesterday’s 1-week high as Western equities failed to follow China’s stock market higher. Silver also erased Monday’s pop higher, trading unchanged in Dollar terms from the end of last week at $17.13 per ounce.

China’s biggest bank just bought a vault that holds 2,000 tons of gold in a secret location near London

Posted on 18 May 2016

ICBC Standard Bank Plc expanded its push into London’s precious metals market by agreeing to buy one of Europe’s largest vaults from Barclays Plc. ICBC Standard, formed last year after Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. — China’s biggest bank — bought a controlling stake in Standard Bank Plc’s global markets business, expects the purchase of the vaulting business and related contracts to be completed in July.

How much gold is there in London - and where is it?

Posted on 18 May 2016

The world’s biggest bank has agreed to buy a vault for gold and precious metals in London. But how many of these vaults are there, and how much gold do they hold? The streets of London may not be paved with gold, but there is certainly a huge amount stored underneath them. About 6,500 tonnes is stored in seven vault-systems under the city.

Palladium left out of precious metals rally; investors shy away

Posted on 18 May 2016

Investor appetite for palladium-backed exchange-traded funds is failing to pick up after a dismal 2015, pointing to another difficult year for the metal despite the prospect of a deepening supply deficit.

ETFs Get Their Timing Wrong

Posted on 18 May 2016

Timing is everything when launching new investment products, but some asset managers just don’t have it on their side. A host of exchange-traded commodity products closed last year amid a deep slump in the prices of raw materials and energy, only to miss a strong rebound in the prices of oil, gold and other commodities this year.

China Fears Rumble Through Currency Markets

Posted on 18 May 2016

After a two-month stretch of calm, worries over China are seeping back into the foreign-exchange market. Global markets were roiled by volatility early this year and in August 2015 as investors feared that China’s economy was slowing and its tightly-controlled currency faced devaluation.

Pound Morphing Into Emerging-Market Currency Before Brexit Vote

Posted on 18 May 2016

With just over a month until the U.K. vote on European Union membership, investors are increasing treating the pound like an emerging-market currency. While sterling was used as a haven during the European debt crisis, the specter of a Brexit has pushed it to the other end of the spectrum.

France sets carbon price floor

Posted on 18 May 2016

2017 finance bill will set price at €30 a tonne in a bid to stir European action to cut emissions and drive forward the Paris climate agreement. France will set a carbon price floor of about €30 ($33.95) a tonne in its 2017 finance bill as the government seeks to kickstart broader European action to cut emissions and drive forward last year’s landmark international climate accord.

Carbon Markets: Learning from the Past, Looking to the Future

Posted on 18 May 2016

Neo-classical economics tells us that markets reduce costs and increase social welfare. It also teaches that pollution not properly accounted for is a classic economic externality. That is, if clean air and clear water are not properly valued, degrading them reduces economic efficiency, impacts social welfare, and increases social costs. Pollution not-paid-for represents a market failure.

COP21 requires emissions reduction target if agriculture is to succeed

Posted on 18 May 2016

The Paris climate agreement was historic. Some 127 nations signed the Paris treaty to limit warming to at least 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Yet the question remains – are countries clear on how they will get there? asks Dr Lini Wollenberg.

Commodities bounce back—sustainable rally or just a false dawn?

Posted on 17 May 2016

An uptick in prices across a range of commodities in 2016 may have been welcomed by miners and traders, but one CEO has told CNBC that he’s not getting carried away just yet. “They always say ‘a swallow doesn’t make a summer’,” Ben Magara, the CEO of London-listed platinum miner Lonmin said.

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