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VRS - who has written 48800 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Trump’s win pushes OPEC to cut production, says BofA’s Blanch

Posted on 25 November 2016

The election of Donald Trump to the presidency gives OPEC members another reason to agree to oil production cuts when they meet next week, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s head of global commodities and derivatives research.

Oil Prices Firm Ahead of Expected Production Cut

Posted on 25 November 2016

Analysts expect swift fall in prices if no deal reached. Oil futures were slightly lower on Thursday, with all eyes on the coming Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting next week, where a deal to cut output is expected.

An OPEC Oil Price Surge May Not Last, IEA Says

Posted on 25 November 2016

An oil price surge triggered by a successful OPEC agreement to cut production could be snuffed out as supply surges back, according to the head of International Energy Agency.

IEA expects oil investment to fall for third year in 2017

Posted on 25 November 2016

Investment in new oil production is likely to fall for a third year in 2017 as a global supply glut persists, stoking volatility in crude markets, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

For OPEC’s Rivals, Success Lies in an Oil Market Far, Far Away

Posted on 25 November 2016

Rivals of OPEC seeking to reach its most-prized oil customers are finding that the long way around is better than any shortcut to success. As the group seeks to implement a deal to limit output, the glut that was exacerbated by its prior strategy of keeping taps open has spawned a market structure that’s benefiting competitors in sales to Asia.

OPEC’s Last Push for Oil-Cuts Deal Shifts Focus to Iran, Russia

Posted on 25 November 2016

OPEC’s final push to implement the Algiers supply accord and boost oil prices shifted focus to Iran and non-members such as Russia as Iraq appeared to reverse its opposition to output cuts.

Woe is gold: monetary metal drops below US$1,200 for first time in a year

Posted on 25 November 2016

Donald Trump’s pledge to fire up the American dollar printing machine again is having the same effect on gold as did the previous three programs of quantitative easing since 2008. That added US$4.5 trillion to the global currency inventory and kneecapped what had been a nearly ten-year run in the gold price, which peaked in September 2011 at US$1,923.70.

Gold will hit $1,440 by mid-June 2017

Posted on 25 November 2016

James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, has remained bullish on the outlook for gold despite the price of the commodity falling below $1,200 per ounce for the first time since February.

Gold price nears ten-month low and could fall to $1,150

Posted on 25 November 2016

The gold price closed in on its lowest level for ten months yesterday, hitting a nadir of $1,180 before recovering slightly. Having fallen in excess of ten per cent from a brief post-US presidential election high of $1,337, the precious metal remains under pressure ahead of an expected increase in US interest rates next month.

Indian Gold Import Ban: Fact or Fiction?

Posted on 25 November 2016

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move to ban 500 and 1,000 rupee notes caught the country by surprise, with many Indians now looking to liquidate their stockpiles of cash. Internet chatter is now a flurry, with some wondering whether the government’s next step will be to ban gold imports and prevent Indians from cashing in “black” money.

Copper Rises Further on Manufacturing Spending Hopes

Posted on 25 November 2016

Metal’s price hits 17-month high as U.S. durable goods data jumps 4.8%. Copper prices hit a 17-month high on Thursday morning in London as bullish expectations for manufacturing spending outweighed the dollar hitting multiyear highs.

Copper: The commodities slouch that has found top gear

Posted on 25 November 2016

Mood begins to turn on the metal as long-held assumptions are questioned. This year’s commodities slouch is playing catch up. Copper has suddenly burst into life, surging 14 per cent this month to above $5,500 a tonne as investors start to pick apart widely-held assumptions about the underlying dynamic for a metal used in everything from wiring to power grids.

As the money men return to metals, is it a sign the cycle has turned?

Posted on 25 November 2016

The money men are returning to the base metals markets. The speculative surges on China’s mainland commodity exchanges may be grabbing the headlines as the authorities tweak trading and margin rates to try and cool the animal spirits of the retail investment crowd.

M&A activity in mining and metals significantly down on last year

Posted on 25 November 2016

A global economic slowdown, political uncertainty and low commodity prices are continuing to squeeze the mining and extraction sector. An analysis shows that M&A activity is significantly down on last year, despite an uptick in transaction volume in the second quarter. Capital raising remains relatively robust.

Chinese iron ore futures rise for third day with steel

Posted on 25 November 2016

Iron ore futures in China rose for a third straight day, and at one point hit the highest level in almost three years, supported by firmer steel prices in the world’s top consumer. Both iron ore and steel came off the day’s peaks, but the recovery in futures from last week’s slide had lifted the price of spot iron ore by nearly 8 per cent in two days as physical buyers chased higher prices.

Gold ETF holdings drop to the lowest since June - BBG

Posted on 25 November 2016

According to the data compiled by Bloomberg, assets in bullion-backed ETFs have contracted 85.5 metric tons in November, retreating to 1,902 tons, the lowest level since June. After shrinking for the past ten sessions, the holdings are on course for the biggest monthly drop in tonnage terms since June 2013, Bloomberg reports.

Renminbi touches eight-year low in EM currency rout

Posted on 25 November 2016

Rush back into US assets leaves range of Asian currencies at record lows. The relentless rise of the dollar scorched emerging market currencies on Thursday, sending China’s renminbi to its weakest level in eight years, while India’s rupee plumbed a record low.

Venezuela’s Currency Just Had the Biggest Monthly Collapse Ever

Posted on 25 November 2016

Venezuela’s currency - the so-called “strong bolivar” - is weakening beyond levels that analysts had forecast just a few weeks ago as an expanding money supply chases a limited amount of U.S. dollars.

China Emerges as Global Climate Change Leader after Trump Victory

Posted on 25 November 2016

On Nov. 7, two days before the U.S. presidential election, diplomats and climate change experts from around world gathered in the Moroccan city of Marrakech to hash out commitments and chart the way forward to slow down global warming. At the time they did not have any premonition that a climate skeptic, who has described global warming as “a hoax created by China,” would be elected president of the United States.

China’s reserves a ‘striking wild card’ for agri-commodities

Posted on 24 November 2016

How Beijing handles its reserves of soft commodities will help shape markets in 2017. China’s handling of its state reserves of raw materials such as cotton and sugar will be a key factor shaping the direction of agricultural commodities in 2017, according to a major lender to agribusinesses.

Commodities Still Face Iron Laws of Supply and Demand

Posted on 24 November 2016

Investors should watch miners’ 2016 results carefully to see whether firms take the bait of higher prices and let capital expenditures drift up again. Mining executives are a sober lot these days. “Capital discipline” has replaced “commodity supercycle” as the industry catchphrase.

Commodity bulls may be about to hit a wall

Posted on 24 November 2016

Rampant speculation and exaggerated hopes of a Trump-led boom have fuelled a blistering rally in industrial metal prices. Oil is perking up and talk of a new commodity super cycle is suddenly on everybody’s lips.

Commodities Surge Is China, Not Trump: Ed Morse (Video)

Posted on 24 November 2016

Ed Morse global head of commodities research at Citigroup, looks at China as the driver of a rally in the copper and iron ore markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.

Low food prices to pressure farm commodities in 2017

Posted on 24 November 2016

Global food prices are set to remain low in 2017, keeping pressure on many farm commodity prices, say analysts at Rabobank. While the drop in sterling has firmed prices for many UK farm outputs, large parts of the food and agriculture sector need to be prepared to keep working in a low-priced environment, said the Dutch food and agribusiness bank in its Global Outlook 2017 report.

New Swiss rules to force commodities groups to disclose payments to officials

Posted on 24 November 2016

Big commodities groups in Switzerland will have to publish any six-figure payments to public officials under draft anti-corruption legislation announced on Wednesday. Switzerland, which hosts some of the world’s biggest commodities trading groups, aims to make financial flows in the sector more transparent as a way to promote “responsible corporate behaviour”, the government said after a cabinet meeting that approved legislation amending corporate law.

Energy investments in 2017 look good

Posted on 24 November 2016

Thanksgiving will mark two years to the day since ministers at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) made a decision that triggered a swoon in global oil prices. But the energy sector strategist for UBS Wealth Management anticipates the oil market will get back into equilibrium by mid-2017 and that should mean good news for investors.

$50 oil is coming back soon, but don’t get too excited: RBC Strategist

Posted on 24 November 2016

Next week’s OPEC meeting could send oil back to $50, but investors may want to curb their enthusiasm. In a note from RBC Capital Markets on Tuesday, head of commodity strategy Helima Croft wrote that OPEC would “stick the landing” at its Nov. 30 meeting and finally draw a long-awaited agreement.

Oil price firms after Iraq says it is ready to cut output

Posted on 24 November 2016

PM indicates willingness to ‘shoulder responsibility’ for Opec production reductions. Iraq’s prime minister said the country is willing to cut some of its own production, in a move that could smooth the way to a supply deal when Opec, the oil cartel, meets next week.

Russia’s Trade With Finland Falls Due to Oil Price Slump - Deputy Prime Minister

Posted on 24 November 2016

Despite the fall, Finland remains an important trade partner for Russia, the deputy prime minister stressed. “Between January and September 2016, the volume of trade between Russia and Finland came to around $6.2 billion, falling 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

OPEC talks struggle with question of market share: Kemp

Posted on 24 November 2016

OPEC officials are struggling to reach a final agreement on how to share out production cuts implied by the preliminary output accord agreed by ministers in September. In theory, all OPEC members would benefit in absolute terms if an output cut produced even a modest and sustained rise in oil prices, so there are strong financial incentives for a deal.

Crude nears $50 as hopes of Opec deal grow

Posted on 24 November 2016

Growing speculation that the Opec nations and Russia will agree output cuts at a meeting next week sent the price of Brent crude surging to its highest level in three weeks.

Gold loses most liquid asset status

Posted on 24 November 2016

Gold has traditionally been considered this country’s most liquid asset — at any time, people were prepared to give cash against it. After the demonetisation, that has changed.

Gold Drops Below $1,200.00, Hits 9-Mo. Low

Posted on 24 November 2016

Gold prices are solidly lower, hit a nine-month low and have fallen below key chart support at $1,200.00 in early U.S. trading Wednesday. The bearish near-term technical postures for gold and silver markets continue to invite chart-based selling interest.

Is Gold Less Precious Now?

Posted on 24 November 2016

On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched 19,000 for the first time in history, investors would be forgiven for asking themselves if the shine has come off gold as a safe-haven investment.

Eyes on tightening palladium/platinum price differential, parity unlikely: sources

Posted on 24 November 2016

The platinum/palladium discount is in focus this week, with palladium creeping closer to platinum in dollar-terms, although parity is unlikely near-term, according to sources. As of 1005 GMT Wednesday morning, palladium was spot bid at $742/oz with platinum at $938/oz.

Metals Rally Draws Speculators as Copper Soars (Video)

Posted on 24 November 2016

Copper posted its highest closing price since July 2015 amid a broad rally in commodities on expectations of a pick-up in global manufacturing and infrastructure spending. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Kenneth Hoffman reports.

A Diversified Approach to Commodities ETFs

Posted on 24 November 2016

Commodity ETFs have enjoyed greater investment interest this year as a recovery in oil prices and resurgence in safe-haven gold bets helped attract steady inflows. However, that scenario could be challenged if the recent rally in the U.S. dollar continues.

Gold Hits 2013 Crash Low on ETF

Posted on 24 November 2016

Gold bullion fell through its $1200 floor of the last 9 months Wednesday lunchtime in London, losing 2.4% before steadying just above $1180 per ounce – the bottom of its 2013 price crash – as the biggest jump in 2 years in reported US orders for durable goods saw the Dollar hit fresh 13-year highs on the currency market.

India Moves to Ease Currency Shortage in Rural Areas

Posted on 24 November 2016

As India grapples with massive cash shortages, the government has announced a series of measures to improve the supply of new currency to the vast rural areas that have been worst hit since high value currency bills were scrapped earlier this month.

India’s currency-GDP ratio highest among BRICS nations

Posted on 24 November 2016

The scramble for cash is well and truly on following the demonetisation of `500 and `1,000 currency notes. But that isn’t a surprise as India is increasingly becoming a currency driven economy.

China to open first national carbon market

Posted on 24 November 2016

China is planning to open a national carbon market next year, and the consequent scale of this market is expected to enable emissions reductions from 2020. According to experts, the market is particularly important as it will be the first of its kind to be set up at a national scale.

China prepares for world’s biggest carbon market

Posted on 24 November 2016

As Donald Trump’s victory plunges US climate action into uncertainty, China is going ahead with an ambitious policy. In the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election, and his refusal to recognise climate change, China’s new carbon market is attracting particular attention.

Challenges to the global economy

Posted on 24 November 2016

In this tribute to their teacher, Prabhat Patnaik’s former students put together a volume that covers three major themes: the internal contradictions of capitalism, the growth of the Indian economy and the feasibility of socialism.

Are Commodities Stuck in a Bear ‘Super-Cycle’?

Posted on 23 November 2016

Higher rates and a stronger dollar are weighing on commodities prices especially precious metals. Soon after Donald Trump won the presidential election expectations grew that inflation would rise along with bigger deficits as a result of prospective tax cuts coupled with increased spending.

China-led commodities rally about to run out of steam

Posted on 23 November 2016

All that Trump campaign chatter about making America great again has done wonders for the US dollar. This past week the greenback hit 13-year highs. Another asset class having a storming year: shares in mining companies. The MSCI world metals and miners index is up 90 per cent from its January low. Yet history suggests the two cannot rally in tandem for long.

U.S. Reflation and the Commodities Market (Video)

Posted on 23 November 2016

Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, discusses the issues driving the rise of the commodities market, re-inflating the U.S. economy, and the risks of the Japanese-style stagnation in the U.S. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”.

Commodity forecasts might not be spot-on

Posted on 23 November 2016

If broker UBS is right, yesterday’s virile performance by our blue-chip miners should be only the beginning, with BHP Billiton and pure-play iron ore king Fortescue Metals worth more than double their current value on current commodity prices.

Goldman says buy oil, other commodities

Posted on 23 November 2016

Investors should buy commodities on Chinese demand and rising oil prices in the coming year, according to Goldman Sachs. “Historically, when the US and Chinese output gap closes and inflation begins to rise, this has been a buy signal for commodities. We believe the recent reacceleration in global PMIs suggests commodity markets are entering a cyclically stronger environment,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said.

Crude oil may surge to $50 if Opec clinches deal, or slip to $40 if it fails

Posted on 23 November 2016

Russia is strongly backing the cartel and said it is ready to support an Opec decision. It sees a big chance of the cartel agreeing on the terms of a freeze by November 30, 2016, at its meeting scheduled in Vienna.

How Opec Deal Talk is Driving Oil and Commodity Prices

Posted on 23 November 2016

Oil surged for a third day on signs OPEC members have made progress toward finalizing a deal to cut output. January futures rose as much as 1.5 percent in New York after the December contract expired 3.9 percent higher Monday.

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