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VRS - who has written 46471 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Commodity Markets Entering Period of Stability

Posted on 24 June 2016

Orica Ltd., the largest supplier of explosives to the mining industry, has begun to observe stability in commodity markets that have been marked by volatility, sinking profits and job cuts after a global boom ended.

Is there really a commodity revival?

Posted on 24 June 2016

Following multiple years of calamitous returns the tide appears to be showing some signs of turning for commodities, with some even calling the end of the sector’s prolonged bear market. Last year witnessed the MSCI World Energy index nosedive 18 per cent. But since the start of 2016 to June 10, the measure has jumped by 16 per cent, according to data from FE Analytics.

Commodities Players Are Set Up for Market-Crushing Gains

Posted on 24 June 2016

The resource sector’s devastating five-year bear market saw the Bloomberg Commodity Index drop 60% from its 2011 peak. Naturally, that crushed the world’s dominant resource producers; the top 40 companies saw their market caps shrink by $27 billion in 2015 alone.

Commodities and Brexit — 5 things to watch

Posted on 24 June 2016

As the UK begins voting in the EU referendum here are five things to watch in the commodities world. It’s a widely-held view among investors that gold would be among the big beneficiaries of a Brexit. Some analysts reckon the price could rise by as much as 10 per cent to $1,400 after a vote to leave as nervous investors pile in looking for safe places to park cash.

Why Substantially Weaker Commodity Prices Are Here to Stay

Posted on 24 June 2016

The outlook for commodities–steel-making or coking coal as well as copper in particular–remains bleak, and this certainly doesn’t bode well for struggling coal and base metals miner Teck Resources Ltd.

Saudi Arabia Declares Cease-Fire in Oil War

Posted on 24 June 2016

The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih, says the oil glut is over. That means the kingdom’s war against U.S. shale producers is coming to an end, too. Who won it is a tough question to answer; on balance, it’s probably the Saudis, but they have paid a huge price, and the surviving U.S. frackers have also benefited.

Will oil price surge if Remain wins the EU referendum?

Posted on 24 June 2016

Oil futures, like most risk assets, has been doing better in recent days as traders take heart from a late polls shift to Remain ahead of the EU referendum. Having fallen for six consecutive sessions from a 2016 high of $53 two weeks ago, international benchmark Brent crude returned to $50 earlier this week. It has been held back from further gains by supply concerns – so would a Remain victory send it soaring?

OPEC oil revenues slump to 10-year low

Posted on 24 June 2016

OPEC’s 13 member countries saw oil export revenues slump to their lowest level in a decade last year. Crude revenues fell nearly 46% to $518 billion in 2015, according to OPEC’s annual bulletin published Wednesday.

Gold Price and Brexit - Correlation and reactions (Video)

Posted on 24 June 2016

Phil Carr, Co-founder and Director of The Gold & Silver Club, comments his vision on Gold and its correlation with Brexit polls and possible outcomes. When the odds of the Brexit increase, so do gold prices. While when the odds fall, so do gold prices.

Gold settles lower for fifth day ahead of Brexit result

Posted on 24 June 2016

Gold futures settled with their fifth-straight session loss Thursday, holding ground at two-week lows, as major global stock markets gained ahead of a historic decision on the U.K.’s membership in the European Union. Gold for August delivery declined $6.90, or 0.5%, to $1,263.10 an ounce. Over the past five days, gold has declined 2.7%. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF was down 0.4% on Thursday.

Copper Is Just a Bystander in Commodities’ Best Start Since 2008

Posted on 24 June 2016

The best start to a year for commodities since 2008 is leaving copper in the dust. The metal is one of the weakest of the 22 raw materials in the Bloomberg Commodity Index of returns this year and the worst of the major metals.

Molybdenum price is on tear

Posted on 24 June 2016

While base metals have enjoyed a good 2016 so far with only lead (-5%) in negative territory for the year and the likes of zinc (+27%) and tin (+18%) entering bull markets, molybdenum is making a star turn.

ETFs to Be Wounded Not Crushed in a Stampede From Junk Bonds

Posted on 24 June 2016

Exchange-traded funds will not be hit as hard as mutual funds if there’s large redemptions of investments in illiquid assets. If there’s a stampede for the exit in the junk bond market, it won’t be investors in exchange-traded funds that get hit hardest.

Should You Bet on Dow ETFs over S&P 500?

Posted on 24 June 2016

Risk-on sentiments returned at the start the week, catching a lift from receding Brexit fears. Most U.S. equity indices rallied with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining over 100 points. Investors started to position their portfolio taking cues of the fact that chances of Britain staying in the EU is higher.

Currency ETFs That Will Move Regardless of Brexit

Posted on 24 June 2016

The day of decision is finally here for Brexit, the vote that will determine whether or not Great Britain remains part of the European Union. Regardless of the outcome of the Brexit vote, some market observers see big moves ahead for some currency exchange traded funds with an obvious candidate being the CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust.

The pound could have a ‘visceral reaction’ to a Brexit, currency expert says

Posted on 24 June 2016

The currency markets have priced in a remain vote for the U.K.’s referendum on whether to leave the European Union, meaning Friday could be “very dramatic” if Britons vote to exit, currency investor Mark Astley said Thursday.

Currency exchanges see demand spike as Britons ‘panic buy’ foreign cash during EU referendum

Posted on 24 June 2016

Currency exchange shops have been stocking up on foreign cash to cope with people “panic-buying” ahead of the EU referendum. Simon Phillips, retail director at No 1 Currency, said demand had rocketed for all foreign currencies, with euros and dollars proving especially popular.

Time to Link Northeast Asia’s Carbon Markets

Posted on 24 June 2016

The time is now for carbon market cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea. The major economies of Northeast Asia are developing carbon markets to help meet their climate change commitments. They would benefit from doing so in concert.

When will the European Union ratify the Paris Agreement?

Posted on 24 June 2016

The UN secured a new climate change agreement in Paris at the end of last year, with the consensus of all its 196 parties. Since then, 177 parties have signed the deal. The next job is to get all 197 (Palestine has since joined) to ratify it. This means that each country has to go through its domestic procedure to formally approve the agreement, then drop off its paperwork into a UN depository.

The End of Economic Forecasting

Posted on 24 June 2016

The dominance of finance has made economic volatility the new normal. Why have economic forecasters recently been so wrong? Just two years ago, for example, the common perception was that the big emerging markets would drive global growth. That oil prices would remain above $100 per barrel.

Here’s how ‘Brexit’ will impact commodities

Posted on 23 June 2016

Britons will vote on Thursday (Today) on whether to remain in the European Union. Market volatility is expected to be particularly severe if the result is an unprecedented ‘Brexit’. Two opinion polls released on Monday suggested support for Britain staying in the 28-nation bloc had recovered some ground following the murder of a pro-EU lawmaker last week, although a third survey found backers for Brexit ahead by a whisker.

How a Brexit Would Impact the Commodities Market (Video)

Posted on 23 June 2016

Mark Keenan, Societe Generale managing director and head of commodity research - Asia, explains how a Brexit would impact commodities. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat on “Trending Business.”.

Wells Fargo Thinks Commodities are Still a Good Catch

Posted on 23 June 2016

The big run by commodities is lifting prices for major benchmarks to new highs in 2016. But advisors who are wary at this point of putting new clients’ money into funds – either broad-based or more focused on futures like gold and oil – might find reason for relief by taking a longer-term view of such historically volatile markets.

Leading index reveals commodity price burden is easing, says Westpac

Posted on 23 June 2016

While the Australian economy still appears set for more sub-trend growth, a survey has found that sentiment improved in May as the commodity price burden began to ease.

OPEC Registers First Collective Deficit Since 1998

Posted on 23 June 2016

OPEC member countries last year registered their first collective budget deficit since 1998, the group said Wednesday, the result of an oil-price slump that dropped government petroleum-export revenue to a 10-year low.

Oil price fall tips OPEC current account into deficit in 2015, first since 1998

Posted on 23 June 2016

OPEC’s 2015 oil export revenues slumped 46 percent to a 10-year low, the group said in a report published on Wednesday, underlining the impact on producers’ income from a collapse in prices.

OPEC Says Its Oil Revenue Plunges $438 Billion to 10-Year Low

Posted on 23 June 2016

OPEC said its oil revenue plunged by $438 billion to a 10-year low last year, as an increase in export volumes failed to compensate for the collapse in prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries earned $518.2 billion in 2015 from the sale of crude and refined fuels, the lowest figure since 2005, the group’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its Annual Statistical Bulletin.

Iran names new OPEC envoy - oil ministry

Posted on 23 June 2016

Iran named oil ministry senior analyst Behrouz Beik Alizadeh as its new representative at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the ministry’s news agency SHANA reported on Wednesday.

Oil analysts agree price will rise, but disagree on magic number

Posted on 23 June 2016

Just months after asking, “How low can it go?” oil analysts are raising price forecasts for 2017 and beyond. But they differ on how high it will go, and when. Many firms see a gradual increase toward $80 a barrel in the coming years, but one believes the oil cycle will peak next year.

Saudi energy minister says oil glut has vanished

Posted on 23 June 2016

Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister said the supply glut that kindled a crippling oil rout around the world and thrashed Houston’s biggest business for two years has finally vanished.

What Could Brexit Mean For Precious Metals?

Posted on 23 June 2016

The recent narrowing of the Brexit polls has sparked retail gold buying in the UK, according to data from the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters. Additional expectations for precious metals around the EU Referendum follow below: Market uncertainty, such as the conditions experienced around Brexit, is likely to benefit the price of safe havens, crucially the U.S. Dollar and gold.

Gold: Why You Should(n’t) Care About Brexit

Posted on 23 June 2016

Right now, global markets are dancing to the Brexit beat. Traders plow money into equities and sell gold every time a poll leans toward the UK staying in the EU. Fifteen minutes later they are reversing because a poll says it’s a tossup. We feel if you are invested in Gold you shouldn’t care. If you are trading Gold you should.

Why Gold, Why Now?

Posted on 23 June 2016

During my most recent webcast a couple of weeks ago, I had the pleasure of being joined by the CEO of the World Gold Council (WGC), Aram Shishmanian. As expected of someone of his stature, Aram brought another level of insight and expertise to our discussion of gold’s Love Trade and Fear Trade.

Brexit gold rush: Scared Brits stockpile bars & coins, just in case

Posted on 23 June 2016

UK citizens worried about the potential fallout of a Brexit are stockpiling gold bars and bullion coins in their safes at home. Searches for the phrase “home safe” have skyrocketed on Google, coming in at 61 percent higher than the previous peak in November 2008 during the global financial crisis, according to data obtained by the Telegraph.

Silver is significantly underpriced

Posted on 23 June 2016

Silver is used in many different sectors, including manufacturing, technology, jewellery, and tableware. It’s a good bet to place, when worry over the economy is rampant, due to a disappointing jobs report in May, confusion from the Fed, and concern over the Brexit vote taking the United Kingdom out of the EU.

Silver ETFs Surge Thanks to Safe-Haven Demand

Posted on 23 June 2016

Precious metals are among this year’s top performing commodities with the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) being leaders of that charge. As a result, holdings of the white metal at silver ETFs are swelling.

How to Invest in Water ETFs

Posted on 23 June 2016

Water. We drink it, we swim in it and it’s vital to human life. Despite being the world’s most precious resource, many people are only beginning to realize it’s becoming scarce. Think back to Kevin Costner’s 1995 post-apocalyptic film, “Waterworld,” where the polar ice caps had melted and earth was covered by the rising seas.

Ghana Commodity Exchange exchange to provide collateral to farmers

Posted on 23 June 2016

The Ghana Commodity Exchange has introduced an initiative that will make it possible for farmers to access loans from banks using their produce as collateral.

Reduced Brexit fears lift European, commodity currencies

Posted on 23 June 2016

The dollar was broadly weaker on Wednesday as risk appetite returned to markets, boosting higher-risk currencies, while sterling and the euro rose on the last day of campaigning before Britain’s referendum on European Union membership.

Britons are stocking up on currency before the EU referendum, Post Office says

Posted on 23 June 2016

Britons have been rushing to get foreign currency ahead of the EU referendum, according to the Post Office. Sales of currency at the Post Office have surged 74 per cent since the weekend, compared to the same period last year.

Does China Manipulate its Currency Like Donald Trump Says?

Posted on 23 June 2016

After 20 years, the Chinese government must be used to being bashed by U.S. politicians and Congress for unfair trade practices or, as Trump has declared many times, being a “currency manipulator.”

A carbon price set to carbon damage

Posted on 23 June 2016

What damage are we causing with each new emission of carbon pollution? Economists regularly assess the economic impact of each marginal greenhouse gas emission, which is labeled the “social cost of carbon.” No surprise, this is hard to measure.

Brexit Vote Threatens Europe’s Carbon Market With Worsening Glut

Posted on 23 June 2016

European Union pollution permit prices are poised to plunge should voters in the U.K., the carbon market’s second-biggest emitter, opt to leave the European Union.

Commodities prices could remain low for the next decade

Posted on 22 June 2016

A glut in a number of commodities could see prices stay at these levels for the next 10 years – that’s according to BHP Billiton Limited CEO Andrew Mackenzie. Mackenzie says the supply of crude oil and copper would decline naturally, but the huge investments by miners around the world since 2008 in other bulk commodities like iron ore, could see the effects of oversupply last for years.

The commodity rebound has legs

Posted on 22 June 2016

The price rebound in oil prices this year has provided plenty of merriment for energy investors. Oil prices have gained about 30% this year and both West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, and Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded above $50 in early June.

Donald Trump has commodity traders nervous, could impact ag commodities, says analyst

Posted on 22 June 2016

The controversial rhetoric of presumptive republican nominee Donald Trump has commodity traders nervous, according to one analyst. Pete Johnson, of marketing news publication Cotton Compass believes a Trump presidency could have a negative impact on the price of Australian agricultural commodities like beef, grain and fibre.

Milder La Niña forecast for commodity markets

Posted on 22 June 2016

The La Niña weather phenomenon forecast to develop later this year will not be as strong as that of 2010-12 when severe droughts in key growing areas around the world devastated crops. “Climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010-12, which was one of the strongest La Niña events on record,” said the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest analysis on Tuesday.

Oil Prices Fall on Supply Overhang, ‘Brexit’ Uncertainty

Posted on 22 June 2016

Oil prices fell Tuesday but pared a lot of their losses late in the day as investors try to navigate an array of volatile influences on the market. Many expect supply outages to end in Nigeria and Canada, but others claim it will have little influence. New polls have caused quick-changing expectations on the U.K.’s referendum on European Union membership.

Rosneft’s Sechin says Saudi Arabia, U.S. and Russia call shots on oil markets

Posted on 22 June 2016

Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s top oil producer Rosneft, said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia were the three main players on global oil markets, dismissing again OPEC’s role as a regulator. He told Rossiya-24 TV that Russia’s role in hydrocarbon markets will strengthen.

Era of Cheap Oil Coming to an End - IEA

Posted on 22 June 2016

The era of cheap oil may soon come to an end, if the prediction of the International Energy Agency, IEA, is anything to go by. The IEA said that there will be rise in oil price due mainly to unplanned outages and disruptions in places like Canada, Nigeria, and Libya.

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