Fri, Dec 19, 2014
A A A
Welcome preal121
RSS

Author Archives | VRS

VRS - who has written 38515 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


Contact the author

Supply the key commodity driver as demand takes a back seat: Russell

Posted on 18 December 2014

The big change in many commodity markets this past year was that demand is no longer king, with supply becoming the key driver, a dynamic that’s likely to persist in 2015. While this trend has been identified, it has not been well understood, with much market commentary still focused on the state of demand as the key determinant of commodity prices.

The Best and Worst Performing Commodities of 2014

Posted on 18 December 2014

Commodities took investors on another wild ride for 2014. This year was characterized by yet another bull market for U.S. equities that was accompanied by a surging greenback. The strong dollar put pressure on the entire commodity industry.

Commodity crush fuels managed futures returns

Posted on 18 December 2014

Managed futures continued their recent hot streak in November, recording their best monthly return in four years by capitalizing on plummeting commodity prices. “We’ve seen resources get crushed and different markets pull back and this strategy is taking advantage of that situation,” said Tim Pickering, chief investment officer at Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. in Calgary.

Oil price shockwave ripples across world markets

Posted on 18 December 2014

The financial turmoil engulfing Russia is a symptom of a wider world markets earthquake that has its epicenter in oil’s collapse and Western disinflation but is now rippling far and wide across investors’ portfolios.

Oil price shockwave ripples across world markets

Posted on 18 December 2014

The financial turmoil engulfing Russia is a symptom of a wider world markets earthquake that has its epicenter in oil’s collapse and Western disinflation but is now rippling far and wide across investors’ portfolios.

Winners And Losers From The Oil Price Plunge

Posted on 18 December 2014

World oil prices have plunged over the last six months with a surge in production and weaker than expected global demand. For several years, global oil prices were fairly stable, sitting at around $110 a barrel. But since June prices have almost halved to around $60 a barrel.

Why Opec is increasingly irrelevant

Posted on 18 December 2014

Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, expects the oil market ‘to stabilise itself eventually’. When the Saudis, the leaders of Opec, decided at the cartel’s recent meeting in Vienna to maintain their oil production levels, it sent a strong message to the world: the market, not Opec, should decide oil prices. As a result, oil prices dropped, falling below $60 per barrel this week.

Opec’s 2015 oil revenues to slump to $446bn - EIA

Posted on 18 December 2014

The amount Opec countries, excluding Iran, earn from net oil revenues next year is set to tumble to levels not seen for a decade as the dramatic slide in prices shows no signs of relenting.
Forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration - the wealthy nations’ energy watchdog - suggests revenue from oil exports next year will dip to $446bn - down 46 per cent on 2013’s income - as Brent crude is projected to average just $68 a barrel in 2015, compared to $109 a barrel last year…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold Declines to Two-Week Low on Outlook for U.S. Interest Rates

Posted on 18 December 2014

Gold prices fell to a two-week low on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising U.S. interest rates, reducing the precious metal’s appeal as a store of value.

Saudi Arabia Has its Reason for an Oil Price Drop, Others Need a Plan

Posted on 18 December 2014

Not all producers will be hurt by a few years of lower prices. Let’s not forget that OPEC’s leading member, Saudi Arabia, has long believed that if oil prices are too high they undermine long-term demand for the country’s main export.

Oil Trades Near 5-Year Low as Russia Echoes OPEC Output Policy

Posted on 18 December 2014

Oil traded near a five-year low in New York as Russia reiterated that it will keep crude production steady next year, echoing OPEC’s strategy of refraining from curbing supply to tackle a global surplus. Futures fell as much as 3.1 percent after sliding below $54 a barrel yesterday for the first time since May 2009.

Gold price to see better base in 2015 - ANZ Bank

Posted on 18 December 2014

The gold price is likely to see a stronger potential for recovery in 2015 despite the prospect of rising US rates, a report from ANZ Bank forecasts. The bank forecasts gold price to average $1,238 per ounce next year, about 3.5 percent higher than the current spot gold price at $1,197 per ounce.

Gold Miners ‘Don’t Think Price Will Fall’, Hedging ‘Still Isolated’

Posted on 18 December 2014

Gold Miners are still not hedging their future production despite the recent price-drop to new 4.5-year lows, says the latest expert analysis, as zero interest rates and falling energy prices are deterring forward sales to lock in current prices. “There is not yet compelling evidence to indicate an extended rise in the volume of hedging by gold miners,” says Matthew Piggott, senior precious metals analyst at Thomson Reuters GFMS, introducing the consultancy’s Q3 2014 report for French investment bank and bullion market maker Societe Generale on Tuesday.

Silver Prices to Outperform Gold in 2015

Posted on 18 December 2014

I know it’s a bold prediction: silver prices are going to surprise investors and provide them with better returns than gold bullion. I say this because both the fundamental and the technical pictures for silver continue to improve. The supply of silver produced continues to dwindle, while demand for the metal is robust. This is the perfect recipe for higher prices.

PGMs Seen Gaining Upward Momentum By End Of 2015; More Supply Deficits Expected

Posted on 18 December 2014

Platinum group metals might start slowly but eventually should gain upside momentum in 2015, with most analysts expecting rises for the year. Large existing above-ground stockpiles, potential for higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar are expected to provide obstacles in the early part of 2015. But eventually, further supply/demand deficits are expected to help the market tick higher.

Aluminium sector unveils new global sustainability standard

Posted on 18 December 2014

BMW Group and Nestlé Nespresso are among 28 organisations to have collaborated on a new standard to improve the environmental, social and governance performance of the aluminium industry.

Lead Touches Two-Year Low as Metals Fall Before Fed

Posted on 18 December 2014

Lead prices dropped to a 28-month low on concern that demand will ebb in China, the world’s largest consumer, while some industrial metals fell on concern that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to boosting interest rates.

World Copper Price Continues Fall

Posted on 18 December 2014

International copper price continued fall and aluminum price touched two-month low on December 1 due to weak manufacturing data of China , the world largest metal consumer, and further decline of oil price.

Iron ore hits new low after weakest China imports in 16 years

Posted on 18 December 2014

The iron ore price reached a fresh five-and-half-year low on Wednesday after surprisingly weak imports by top consumer China. The CFR 62% Fe 2% Al benchmark import price at the port of Qingdao tracked by The SteelIndex declined 20c to $69.10 a tonne, the lowest since June 1, 2009.

The 5 Best ETFs to Buy for 2015

Posted on 18 December 2014

With the clock about to roll past 2014 and into the New Year, it’s time for investors to be looking ahead with regards to their portfolios. That can be a daunting task, however, as it’s difficult to predict exactly what will happen over the progression of a year. An easy way to prepare and plan is by using exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The Best and Worst Precious Metals ETFs

Posted on 18 December 2014

Among all that glitters, the palladium exchange traded fund is outperforming while silver ETFs have been the most tarnished in the precious metals group. The ETFS Physical Palladium Shares has increased 8.9% year-to-date, leading the precious metals pack. The palladium spot prices is currently hovering around $780.8 per ounce.

5 Hot ETF Trends To Avoid In 2015

Posted on 18 December 2014

Though it may be hard to do, we need to shift our attention away from the twisted wreckage within the energy sector for a second. That’s because, as 2014 winds to an end, investors need to make a plan for 2015. And in order to formulate a strategy, we need to reflect on the past year.

Russian currency collapses: rouble trouble

Posted on 18 December 2014

Will Russia’s economic woes finally force Vladimir Putin to stop his adventurism and concentrate on problems at home? Russia’s attempt to defend the rouble by pushing up interest rates has failed miserably, as such reactions often do. After a slight rally following the central bank’s intervention, the currency was on the slide once more because the economy’s problems are far more deep-seated than can be dealt with through monetary policy alone.

Nigeria’s Currency at Record Low

Posted on 18 December 2014

Nigeria’s currency slumped to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, pummeled by the tumbling price of oil, rendering the central bank’s staunch efforts to stem the decline ineffective.

Did anyone notice that Australia now has a carbon trading scheme?

Posted on 18 December 2014

Senator Nick Xenophon has brought back a carbon trading scheme to Australia and nobody seems to have noticed. Quietly tucked behind the headlines from the Palmer United Party and the government was the mention of Senator Xenophon inserting a ‘Safeguard Mechanism’ into the Direct Action legislation.

Commodities Still Getting Trashed

Posted on 17 December 2014

A slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and a sustained effort by OPEC to make shale oil extraction unprofitable have been just two of the factors which have been crushing commodities prices. On December 12, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial production increased only 7.2 percent in November, on a year-over-year basis.

Levin seeks crackdown on physical commodities

Posted on 17 December 2014

Sen. Carl Levin has introduced a bill seeking to crack down on trading on inside information in physical commodities, the first such legislation limiting Wall Street banks’ ability to deal in physical markets from crude oil to aluminum.

Fitch: Falling Commodities Prices Hit Australia’s Fiscal Outlook

Posted on 17 December 2014

Australia’s fiscal outlook has weakened due to lack of support for spending cuts in the Senate and a sharp decline in key commodities prices that eroded the country’s terms of trade in 2H14, says Fitch Ratings. Further deterioration in commodities prices or continued objections to spending cuts in the Senate would pose risks to the fiscal outlook.

Brent oil price falls below $60 a barrel

Posted on 17 December 2014

Oil’s fall below $60 a barrel to five and a half year lows gathered pace on Tuesday after data showed Chinese factory activity had weakened. ICE January Brent — the international oil benchmark — dropped $1.45 to $59.61 a barrel in afternoon trading, after falling as low as $58.50 a barrel. This is almost half the level it reached in mid-June.

Ticking time bombs: Where oil’s fall is dangerous

Posted on 17 December 2014

Lower oil prices are good for some countries, and bad for others. But there are a handful of oil-dependent economies where things could get especially ugly. Crude prices were lower Tuesday after OPEC repeated its refusal on Monday to cut oil output despite fears of a looming glut and a UAE official rebuffed calls for an emergency meeting to fix prices.

Oil’s Price Decline Weighs On High Yield Debt

Posted on 17 December 2014

The price of oil has been falling since June but the pace of oil’s price decline has accelerated since about mid-November. You may have noticed cheaper gasoline prices at your local gas station as a result. From this standpoint the falling price of oil is a good thing.

OPEC signals ‘wait and see’ approach could last a year

Posted on 17 December 2014

Core Gulf OPEC oil producers signaled this week they are prepared to wait as long as six months to a year to see the market stabilize, quashing hopes for any quick intervention to stop the price rout that took crude to under $60 per barrel.

OPEC will not step in to support oil prices: Kuwait

Posted on 17 December 2014

OPEC has no plans to intervene in the oil market to shore up sagging crude prices, the Kuwaiti oil minister said Tuesday, as Brent crude breached the $60 mark. “At OPEC’s meeting in November, we took two decisions,” Ali al-Omair said at a lecture in Kuwait City.

Gold capped at $1238

Posted on 17 December 2014

After breaking through a bearish trendline at the beginning of last week, Gold benefited from some USD profit-taking and managed to climb its way back up the charts. However, the yellow metal found resistance at $1238 preventing entry to $1240 and current technicals indicate this could be a psychological ceiling in the current Gold market.

Get Ready for Gold Prices to Break Out

Posted on 17 December 2014

Gold is unquestionably the most frustrating trade I’ve ever tried to make in 20 years of investing. The main problem is there is simply no way to predict gold prices or even attempt to ballpark where gold prices might go in any given time period. Gold prices are subject to so many crosscurrents that trying to trade the yellow metal has always flummoxed me.

Is the end of QE bearish for gold?

Posted on 17 December 2014

The conventional view is that Fed money creation is necessarily bullish for gold and that a tightening of monetary conditions beginning with the cessation of Fed money creation is necessarily bearish for gold. It’s strange that this view is popular given that gold was clearly hurt more than helped by the QE program that extended from October of 2012 through to October of this year.

Gold and Silver Outlook for 2015

Posted on 17 December 2014

In the past 12 months, gold has traded as high as around $1,380 an ounce and as low as about $1,140 an ounce. From its starting point at around $1,220, though, the change is just $10 an ounce at the current price around $1,210. Since June, when oil prices started falling and the dollar began strengthening, gold has lost about $100 an ounce.

Copper to gain on supply constraints

Posted on 17 December 2014

The metal may inch towards $6,950/tonne. Base metals have witnessed a lot of ups and downs this year due to geo-political tensions arising out Russia -Ukraine standoff in the first half, followed by faltering growth in China during the second half.

When Rare Earths, Graphite, Lithium, and Uranium go to war they insure the peace and create the future

Posted on 17 December 2014

We all know that individual, as well as institutional investors have only one goal, which is to make a return on their investment (a profit). This is not the purpose of government nor should it be.

How “Green” is Lithium?

Posted on 17 December 2014

The market for battery electric and hybrid vehicles is growing slowly but steadily – from 0.4% in 2012 to 0.6% in 2013 and 0.7% in 2014 (year-to-date) in the United States alone.

Chinese rare earth giant born

Posted on 17 December 2014

China’s leading rare earth producer – Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth (Group) Hi-Tech Co. to give its full name – is set to further tighten its grip on the industry. Baotou’s giant mine in Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia near Baotou City, produces the bulk of the world’s rare earths and does so as a byproduct of iron ore mining.

The Best and Worst Exchange-Traded Funds of 2014

Posted on 17 December 2014

There’s no shortage of cliches used to describe the rapidly expanding exchange-traded fund industry — it’s growing like wildfire, like weeds, like kudzu. ETFs are definitely an invasive species in the financial services world, and for many investors a welcome one, thanks to their low costs and targeting of niche, hard-to-access investing areas.

The 10 Best ETFs to Own for 2015

Posted on 17 December 2014

Each week our experts dish out the latest profit plays and asset-protection moves for our Money Morning Members – all for free. Today we want to do something different. Rather than provide a roundup of last week’s stock picks, we’re going to focus on 10 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) our experts like right now.

Identifying ETF Global Values Plays for 2015

Posted on 17 December 2014

The global equity landscape is at an interesting crossroads as we make our way into 2015, with many individual countries and sectors showing marked divergences. The drop in commodity prices this year has been the obvious factor in widening the gap between the strongest and weakest names around the world.

The falling rouble – all you need to know about Russia’s currency crisis

Posted on 17 December 2014

Economic and political headwinds are battering Russia whose currency has been weakened by the freefalling oil price and western sanctions. The Russian central bank raised interest rates to 17% in an attempt to prevent the rouble’s collapse. But the dramatic move failed to stem the decline, with the currency hitting new all-time lows against the dollar.

Rouble Woes: Six Stages Of A Currency Crisis

Posted on 17 December 2014

With the rouble on extremely shaky ground, it is far from certain that the IMF would be willing to come to Russia’s rescue. If you’ve never witnessed a currency crisis, here’s how they usually go, in six simple steps:

Russian ruble’s fall: A classic ‘currency collapse’

Posted on 17 December 2014

The decline of the ruble is the result of Western policy. The question now is how will Putin respond? The Russian economy was already in the running for having the worst year in 2014, sandwiched somewhere between Congressional Democrats and Sony Entertainment Pictures.

Climate Summit fails to deliver real solutions to planetary emergency

Posted on 17 December 2014

After 11 full days of intense negotiations, the 20th annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change “Conference of the Parties” (COP20) held in Lima, Peru ended with proposals deemed too weak by climate campaigners.

Global agri-commodities prices likely to remain volatile in 2015

Posted on 16 December 2014

Agricultural commodities are likely to remain volatile globally in 2015, with strong buying support on lows to keep prices elevated in the first half. However, global oversupply could pull these down in the second half.

Hedge funds hike bullish bets on ags - even as oil retreats

Posted on 16 December 2014

Hedge funds returned to a net long position in Chicago wheat for the first time in six months as they made a sharp rise in bullish positioning on ags – an increase potentially spurred by the weakness in other commodities.

banner
banner
December 2014
S M T W T F S
« Nov    
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031