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VRS - who has written 41692 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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How China is Driving the Commodity Rout (Video)

Posted on 31 July 2015

Michael Haigh, global head of commodities research at Societe Generale, discusses the factors dragging down commodities prices, why he sees a buying opportunity created by the drop and which commodities might be the best long-term bet. He speaks on “Market Makers.”.

Will commodities crash trigger new financial crisis?

Posted on 31 July 2015

The equity market has suffered sharp falls in the last two months, and investors are divided on whether the Hong Kong and A-share markets have stepped into the bear territory. Several commodities like gold, base metal and oil are certainly in the bear market territory. And the meltdown in commodity market may trigger a new financial crisis.

Roubini: Combination of Factors Weighing on Commodities (Video)

Posted on 31 July 2015

Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini talks about the factors affecting commodity prices and the reduced pricing power of OPEC. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Is it Time to Buy Commodities?

Posted on 31 July 2015

A quick glance at recent headlines would lead a reasonable person to assume that this year’s big losers are Greek and Chinese stocks . Yet, despite all the furor in the news , the Athens Stock Exchange is down less than 5 percent year-to-date, while the Shanghai Composite remains up more than 10 percent, according to Bloomberg data.

OPEC says oil should not fall further, sees stability in 2016

Posted on 31 July 2015

OPEC expects increasing oil demand to prevent a further fall in prices and sees a more balanced market in 2016, its secretary-general said on Thursday, the latest sign the group is sticking to its policy of defending market share.

OPEC, Russia: ‘Oil market to stabilize’

Posted on 31 July 2015

OPEC and Russia expressed confidence the global oil market would become more balanced and stable in 2016 after recent sharp drops. At a meeting between OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah El-Badri and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow on Thursday, both sides made clear they didn’t expect oil prices to experience any more sharp falls.

ABN Amro keeps 2015 oil price forecasts, cuts 2016 view

Posted on 31 July 2015

ABN Amro kept its 2015 oil price forecasts, but reduced its 2016 prices significantly, citing a worsening oil oversupply situation. The bank maintained its 2015 Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecasts of $60 and $55 per barrel, respectively. But it cut 2016 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $10 to $65 and $60 per barrel, respectively.

Oil prices sinking - even without Iran

Posted on 31 July 2015

Oil prices worldwide have been falling for the past year. And the return of oil from Iran - following its landmark nuclear deal - is expected to put further pressure on the prices. DW examines the global oil market.

Oil Market Embraces Lower-for-Longer Price View as Futures Sink

Posted on 31 July 2015

The global oil surplus increasingly looks like a problem that’ll take years rather than months to solve — and the market is pricing that in. U.S. crude futures for delivery in five years have broken below levels seen during the financial crisis. With leading OPEC members pumping at a record, supplies from elsewhere holding up and Iran close to reviving exports, the market is signaling the glut will persist.

Prepare for gold prices to plunge…as low as $350

Posted on 31 July 2015

A prominent gold forecaster predicts the yellow metal will drop to a mere $350 an ounce, a level unseen since 2003. It’s dramatically lower than what most experts are currently calling for. But Claude Erb’s prediction might have merit. Back in 2012, Erb, a former commodities trader at TCW Group, co-authored a landmark research paper with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey that was early to predict gold’s downfall.

Gold has potential to plummet to $700: Strategist

Posted on 31 July 2015

Gold got little respite from all the bad news surrounding it Thursday, with the price of the precious metal crunching to near a five-and-a-half-year low and two separate analysts telling CNBC that there was little reason to add it to an investment portfolio.

Study predicts gold could plunge to $350 an ounce

Posted on 31 July 2015

Gold bugs, who have just begun to digest bullion’s more than $100 drop over the past month, need to prepare for the possibility of an even bigger decline. That, at least, is the forecast of Claude Erb, a former commodities manager at fund manager TCW Group, and co-author (with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor) of a mid-2012 study that forecast a plunging gold price.

Gold could sink to $800: Yamada

Posted on 31 July 2015

Gold just can’t get a bid. The precious metal fell near 5½-year lows on Thursday after the second-quarter GDP number showed the U.S. economy is growing at a steady rate and comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday pointed to the notion of a September rate hike.

The Real Reason Gold Prices Are Falling

Posted on 31 July 2015

Gold is in the news for all the wrong reasons at the moment. The price of the metal tumbled this month, maintaining its downward trend for the year. In fact, bullion had its worst month in over two years in July. At US$1,092, an ounce of gold is now worth what it was back in 2010.

World Gold Council recommends retaining India’s current hallmarking model

Posted on 31 July 2015

World Gold Council on Thursday recommended that India’s current hallmarking model, built around independent hallmarking and assay centres, should be retained. In addition it recommended six key actions should be taken to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the current system:

Here’s Why Silver Prices are About to Soar

Posted on 31 July 2015

If you’re looking to get rich in precious metals, this might be the most important message you’ll ever read. Because today, I’m going to show you why silvers prices could soon soar through the roof. If you want to get in on this opportunity, then you have to act fast.

Forget whether $100 silver is possible, how about $1000?

Posted on 31 July 2015

I don’t know of many charts out there that a bullish investor since 2011 would look at with more disgust than the silver chart. It has been an exceptionally painful experience for those bullishly inclined since 2011. In fact, silver has dropped 70% from its 2011 heights to its recent lows, and it is still not done. But this story certainly has a “silver lining” for those who are willing to be a bit more patient.

Molybdenum: Minor Metal Is Major Headache for Investors

Posted on 31 July 2015

The biggest casualty of the malaise affecting global steel markets isn’t iron ore, or even coal. Instead, an often-overlooked metal that is produced in countries including the U.S. and traded in London has experienced the steepest price falls: molybdenum.

3 Energy ETFs With Juicy Yields

Posted on 31 July 2015

Energy stocks may be the most-cursed securities since the last one-year period, but not all is repulsive in this corner of the investment world. Investors should note that energy stocks are known for warm dividend payouts.

State Street Starts Global Macro Hedge Fund in Alternatives Push

Posted on 31 July 2015

State Street Corp. is starting a hedge fund that will bet on macroeconomic events, part of an effort to expand its $2.37 trillion money-management arm beyond lower-paying passive strategies.

Is Now the Time to Invest in Agriculture?

Posted on 31 July 2015

Do today’s agricultural equity opportunities offer a parallel to the bull market of 2010? During the last significant El Niño cycle in 2010, Chicago corn futures rallied 78%.

Bitcoin: Commodity or Currency?

Posted on 31 July 2015

Electronic payment system Bitcoin is garnering praise, attention, and scrutiny in equal measure amidst claims the cryptocurrency could disrupt the entire global financial system. The future of Bitcoin has never looked so important to so many people, as countries in the grips of financial difficulties turn to Bitcoin, while those with an interest in stocks and shares observe the growth of this new currency-commodity hybrid with intrigue.

Australian dollar steady as commodities bounce offsets weak data

Posted on 31 July 2015

The Australian dollar held steady on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve failed to surprise overnight and a lift in commodity prices offset soft domestic data. In late local trade, the Aussie was fetching US73.09¢, compared with US73.16¢ at the same time on Wednesday.

Calpine expects CO2 rule to help gas fleet

Posted on 31 July 2015

Calpine says the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) forthcoming Clean Power Plan will provide a strategic advantage for its natural gas fleet given the likely retirement of baseload coal-fired capacity. Calpine is bullish in its outlook for gas dispatch throughout its markets, especially if the EPA plan creates a carbon price for coal generators. The company operates a merchant fleet in California, Texas and the PJM Interconnection totaling 27,00MW,

Investors prepare for a carbon-constrained world

Posted on 31 July 2015

The upcoming global climate change summit in Paris and falling coal prices offer the latest reminder for investors to start thinking about the potential impact future carbon policy changes will have on where they park their money.

July slaughter sends commodities to 13-year low

Posted on 30 July 2015

The downward slide in commodity prices is accelerating, surpassing the low reached during the financial crisis in 2008 and reaching a 13-year low. “This is one of the worst months in history for commodities,” said Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Don’t confuse commodities hoarding as a sign of a market turnaround

Posted on 30 July 2015

Canadian investors did pretty well during the rising tide of commodities prices a decade ago, but they are looking for signs of hope these days. With the S&P/TSX energy index down 20 per cent on the year, and the metals and mining index down by nearly a quarter, they could certainly use one or two.
Maybe investors can simply put their faith in the old adage that the cure for low prices is low prices.

Get ready to cash in on the bottom for commodities

Posted on 30 July 2015

A five-day rout was put to rest yesterday, with a 1% gain for the S&P 500 and other indexes. Dead-cat bounce? The Federal Reserve may chart out the fortunes for this market, depending on what’s in its statement later. Investors will comb through the Fed’s words for clues to a September hike, though they may get fewer hints than they’re hoping for.

Oil Price Fluctuations at $50-$65 per Barrel ‘Normal’

Posted on 30 July 2015

Oil price fluctuations between $50 and $65 per barrel are normal because the situation on the world market depends on the level of supply and demand, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday.

Demand not enough to boost oil price

Posted on 30 July 2015

Strong global demand for oil is insufficient to offset a robust supply outlook that has driven prices back below US$50 per barrel, and Saudi Arabia no longer appears to have the necessary market clout to change prices.

Russia has no plans to discuss oil output cuts with OPEC in Moscow

Posted on 30 July 2015

Russia has no plans to discuss oil production cuts with OPEC during Secretary-General, Abdullah al-Badri, visit to Moscow on Thursday, Energy Minister Alexander Novak was quoted as saying.

Understanding the Oil Market’s New Supply Dynamic (Video)

Posted on 30 July 2015

Bloomberg’s Vincent Piazza explains the new supply dynamic in the oil market as producers continue increasing output while prices fall. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”.

Here’s what the rout in gold prices means for the market

Posted on 30 July 2015

Lots have been said about the recent decline in gold prices. Most of it deals with the fundamentals of gold itself, such as mine closures, supply and demand, and the like. The rest involves the technical side, such as long-term trends and moving averages. But there are other sides to this story.

Deutsche: Gold price has another 30% to fall – and soon

Posted on 30 July 2015

On Tuesday gold stabilized but hovered near five-and-half year lows struck last week after a closely watched report showed global gold demand at the lowest in six years , followed by a prediction of a 30% fall from today’s levels.

Gold price not being driven by fundamentals

Posted on 30 July 2015

Since around mid-June, gold prices have come under substantial selling pressure. One of the main drivers behind this fall has been the on-going debate about interest rates. While the general narrative supposes that higher interest rates will have a negative impact on gold, I have often stated that this assumption is not correct.

HSBC downgrades 2015 gold price forecast

Posted on 30 July 2015

HSBC has significantly downgraded its 2015 average gold price forecast, following the brutal sell-off seen in the market one week ago. HSBC now predicts that gold will average $1,160 per ounce in 2015 from $1,234 previously. The bank has also lowered its 2016 forecast by five percent from $1,275 per ounce to $1,205.

Warren Buffett once said that Gold is a way of going long on fear. Do you agree?

Posted on 30 July 2015

The world market was awash with a swarm of gold bugs after the financial crisis of 2008. Gold bugs are advocates of investments in Gold as a safe haven and a guard against financial Armageddon, hyperinflation, currency collapses and geopolitical troubles.

Why Gold Will Fall to $1,020

Posted on 30 July 2015

After a relatively uneventful few months for the gold market, prices broke out of their six-month range in dramatic fashion last week. Gold’s fall below the crucial USD1,130/oz level has seen the metal trade to a fresh five-year low of USD1,078/oz in recent days. While the market has since gained some composure, we expect further downside to ensue given the significant shift in market positioning.

Zinc market could be facing concentrate supply deficit: Investec

Posted on 30 July 2015

The zinc market could run into a concentrate shortfall in the coming months, leading to upward pressure on prices, Investec said Wednesday. “We see the zinc market as one of the few bright spots in the metals market right now given the natural attrition from old mines closing down,” Investec said in a research note, commenting on the decision by Australia’s MMG to push ahead with its Dugald River mine project.

Goldman says Chinese metals in for a ‘hard landing’

Posted on 30 July 2015

China’s statistics pose multiple difficulties for analysts, especially since they were called “man-made” by the current premier, Li Keqiang, in a US diplomatic cable. The country grew at 7 per cent in the second quarter of this year according to Beijing, but commodity prices, especially metals, have fallen to some of their lowest price levels in six years.

Iron ore price surges 6%

Posted on 30 July 2015

While other metals markets continue to be mired in negativity, the price of iron ore surged on Wednesday as the market for the steelmaking raw material in top consumer China show signs of a bottom. The benchmark 62% Fe import price including freight and insurance at the Chinese port of Tianjin raced ahead $3.10 or 5.9% to $53.30 a tonne, capping three days of gains according to data provided by The SteelIndex.

Oil ETFs Jump on Unexpected Inventory Drop

Posted on 30 July 2015

An unexpected dip in U.S. crude oil inventories helped fuel a surge in energy prices and commodity-related exchange traded funds Wednesday. On Wednesday, the United States Oil Fund, which tracks West Texas Intermediate oil, was up 2.7% and the United States Brent Oil Fund, which tracks Brent crude oil futures, was 1.4% higher. USO has declined 22.2% and BNO has decreased 17.5% year-to-date.

Despite bumpy June/July, CTAs hold on

Posted on 30 July 2015

To say that things have been rocky in managed futures recently is putting it mildly. In June, the industry saw its worst month on a performance basis in the past four years. Then yesterday, S&P’s Jodie Gunzberg came out with the following data: “The S&P GSCI has lost 13.6% month-to-date through July 27, 2015, bringing its level to the lowest since February 25, 2002. It has now exceeded the bottom of the 2008 global financial crisis.”

Russia Ends Foreign Currency Purchases in Boost for Easing

Posted on 30 July 2015

Russia’s central bank halted purchases of foreign currency to replenish the country’s international reserves, a move that may lay the groundwork for a fifth interest-rate cut this year at a meeting on Friday.

Australian dollar may hit US50¢ as commodities prices fall

Posted on 30 July 2015

Despite its rise in recent days, the Aussie is now seen as close to fair value, but should continue to track the price of key commodities such as iron ore and coal. According to most modelling, the currency’s present level near US73¢ – it was fetching US73.21¢ – clearly reflects the country’s terms of trade, along with the difference in bond yields between Australian and the United States.

Climate change: On the economics of the end of the world as we know it

Posted on 30 July 2015

Climate change puts humanity at risk. The Pope’s celebrated encyclical letter on the subject released last month emphasised this risk “for our common home”, arguing that “doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain”. But apocalyptic predictions are often made by religious groups. So, how serious is this claim?

Carbon Trading Part of Late Push for Obama Power Plant Limits

Posted on 30 July 2015

Some businesses that back President Barack Obama’s plan to curb greenhouse gases are making a late lobbying push to add an element similar to a cap-and-trade program. With the administration set this week or next to unveil its final rules to cut emissions from coal and natural gas plants, groups for companies such as Johnson Controls Inc., Alstom SA and AES Corp. have pressed officials to include a carbon market so that costs don’t surge.

Investors fret over falling commodities

Posted on 29 July 2015

Investors’ expectations are for more falls in commodity prices amid worries about the Chinese economy and interest rates. Speculators have confirmed what everyone else has been thinking: expect more falls in commodities, as worries about China and higher interest rates combine with waning sentiment to suggest markets are heading further south.

China paves a silk road for commodities

Posted on 29 July 2015

The Silk Road may conjure up images of Marco Polo and ancient Chinese empires, but its infrastructure-driven 21st century version could be a long-term saviour for commodity prices. China’s plan to spend billions on transportation links to Europe via western Asia - primarily railways and highways but also ports - is finally underway and starting to attract international attention.

How bad is July proving for commodities?

Posted on 29 July 2015

Concerns about a slowdown in China, renewed strength in the US dollar and persistent supply concerns have combined to make it an ugly July for commodities. But just how bad has it been? The S&P GSCI total return index, which tracks the price of 24 commodities, has fallen through the bottom it reached during the the financial crisis and is at its lowest level since February 2002, writes Mamta Badkar.

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