Tue, Mar 31, 2015
A A A
Welcome preal121
RSS

Author Archives | VRS

VRS - who has written 39895 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


Contact the author

Commodity Prices Receive Boost From Fed Uncertainty

Posted on 31 March 2015

A pause in the dollar’s ascent has bolstered many commodities markets, lifting prices on raw materials ranging from copper to orange juice. An eight-month rally in the greenback stalled earlier this month after the Federal Reserve signaled it wasn’t in any hurry to raise interest rates.

Commodity investors are bailing at the fastest pace on record

Posted on 31 March 2015

Investors are bailing out of commodity funds at the fastest pace on record, and the exodus shows no signs of ending. U.S. exchange-traded funds linked to broad baskets of raw materials saw a net outflow of $919 million over the first three months of the year, the most of any quarter since the securities were created in 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

What Happens to Global Commodities Once China is No Longer the World’s Factory?

Posted on 31 March 2015

For many decades, China was the world’s default factory. It sucked up commodities from all four corners of the globe to power its factories. These factories then go on to crank out products that developed economies far and wide loved to consume. That was the old arrangement, and that’s why China’s annual GDP growth rate was nothing short of phenomenal.

Why This Commodities Bust Could Test Investor Patience

Posted on 31 March 2015

Commodities sure have a way of touching all of the major asset classes. With that said, let’s take a look at one of the benchmark commodity indices, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, to see where we stand and if the pain of the 34% decline since June 2014 is behind us. All of course, from a technical perspective.

The global oil price drop may last for the next couple decades, Stanford economist says

Posted on 31 March 2015

Global oil prices may stay low for the next 10 or 20 years, according to Stanford economist Frank Wolak. The most likely medium-term outcome is $50 to $70 per barrel, according to Wolak. He is the Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies in the Department of Economics at Stanford University.

US battles Opec as oil output growth beats 100 year record

Posted on 31 March 2015

American drillers increased oil production at the highest rate in a Century in 2014 despite falling prices . Opec’s efforts to slow down the pace of growth of America’s oil industry last year have failed, according to new data which revealed that drillers in the US increased production at the highest rate in more than 100 years.

Riyadh dancing in new oil market

Posted on 31 March 2015

Saudi Arabia is forced to react to changing crude oil market dynamics by offering discounts to its potential clients in Asia, Wood Mackenzie said Monday.

How the conflict in Yemen is impacting the oil market

Posted on 31 March 2015

The worsening conflict in Yemen – which pits rival internal groups backed by Iran against those backed by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition of countries – brings to the fore again the potential such regional flash points have to disrupt world oil trade.

Crude pares losses on Iran talks, ends at $48.68 a barrel

Posted on 31 March 2015

Oil prices fell for the second straight session on Monday as Iran and six world powers negotiated a deal for Tehran’s nuclear program that could end Western sanctions, allowing the OPEC member to ship more crude into an already flooded market.

Iran nuclear crisis: Six key points

Posted on 31 March 2015

Over a decade of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme come to a head on Tuesday, the deadline for a deal. Here are some of the key points to understanding what the nuclear crisis is all about.

Natixis forecast sees gold price averaging $1,150/oz in 2015

Posted on 31 March 2015

The gold price could average $1,150 and $1,055 per ounce in 2015 and 2016 respectively as the normalisation of Federal Reserve monetary policy and further currency weakness in Europe and Japan drive the dollar higher, Natixis said in a report released on Monday.

In 20 years, the world may run out of minable gold

Posted on 31 March 2015

In another two decades rare commodities may become seriously scarce. According to Goldman Sachs, the world has about 20 years each of known minable reserves of gold diamonds and zinc. Platinum copper and nickel reserves only have about 40 years or less left.

Silver’s outperformance versus gold to stay: Capital Economics

Posted on 31 March 2015

According to senior analysts at Capital Economics, Silver has risen 8% in dollar terms year-to-date in 2015. During the same period, gold has appreciated only by 1%. This outperformance by silver is expected to continue in 2015 and 2016, noted Julian Jessop, Head of Commodities Research at the London-based economic research consultancy.

Natixis forecasts LME aluminium to average $1,840/mt in 2015

Posted on 31 March 2015

French bank Natixis said Monday that it expects the LME aluminium price to average around $1,840/mt in 2015, moving up to trade higher in 2016 and average around $2,000/mt. “Our analysis of the aluminium market suggests a tug of war over the coming years between positive and negative factors,” the bank said in its metals review for the first half of 2015.

Iron Ore Hovers Close to $US50, Hits Six-Year Low

Posted on 31 March 2015

Iron ore just can’t stay out of the news. The commodity has hit another post-financial crisis low—and a record low—when it hit $US52.90 overnight. This was down 2.2 percent from its prior close of $US54.10 a tonne.

Silver ETFs Outshining Peers

Posted on 31 March 2015

While the Fed’s March meet led to a stall in the greenback’s north-bound march, it spread joy within broad-based commodity investing. Most investors focused in on gold taking cues from the Fed’s dovish comments over rate rising issues. Another corner of the precious metal world -silver - has also done quite well lately.

Oil ETFs: Look Before Leaping

Posted on 31 March 2015

The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate oil, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) are down 15.8% and 8.1%, respectively, year-to-date after falling an average of 45.5% last year.

Cotton, the other globally glutted commodity

Posted on 31 March 2015

The price of a given commodity is falling, rapidly. A key market has way more of the stuff than it used to. Producers are panicking and trying to shift resources to avoid selling into the glut—not to mention the strong US dollar is making it harder for manufacturers around the world to import what they need.

Hedge funds reduce bearish stance on ags - a little

Posted on 31 March 2015

Hedge funds reduced, a little, their bearish bets on agricultural commodities, but remained unusually downbeat on price prospects, particularly for the likes of sugar and arabica coffee. Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net short position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from cotton to cattle, by nearly 24,000 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.

Use of China’s Yuan as Global Payment Currency Falls

Posted on 31 March 2015

China suffered a second setback in as many weeks in its drive to boost the use of its currency abroad, even as the country steps up efforts to open up its capital account. The use of the Chinese yuan as a currency for world payments fell two places to seventh in February, with a share of 1.81%, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or Swift, in a report Monday.

Currency Wars: The Swiss Case

Posted on 31 March 2015

This past January, the Swiss National Bank caused panic in the world of central banking when it announced that it would no longer hold the euro at a fixed exchange rate with the Swiss franc. On January 14, one euro was equivalent to 1.2 Swiss francs; after the statement was made the following day, the euro drastically dropped to just 0.85 to the franc.

South Korea’s green initiative meets resistance

Posted on 31 March 2015

South Korea launched Asia’s first nationwide carbon emissions trading scheme in January. It is part of the government’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 30 per cent by 2020.

The Carbon Brief Interview: Tim Yeo

Posted on 31 March 2015

Tim Yeo has been the Conservative MP for South Suffolk since 1983 and is the current chair of the Commons’ Energy and Climate Change (ECC) committee. Yeo served as the minister for environment and countryside from 1992-3. Yeo is standing down as an MP at the general election in May after being deselected by his local party members in 2013.

Goldman slaps JPMorgan in commodities as rivals retreat

Posted on 30 March 2015

Goldman Sachs earned back its place as the largest bank by commodities revenue as competitors including JPMorgan Chase scaled down or abandoned the raw materials business. JPMorgan, which made the most money from commodities among the top 10 investment banks in 2013, ranked second last year and Morgan Stanley was third, according to a report published Friday from Coalition, a London-based business analytics firm.

Oil price in 2015 not to exceed $60 per barrel – EBRD

Posted on 30 March 2015

In 2015, world oil prices will range within $50-$60 per barrel, a leading economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Dmitry Gvindadze said. “In my opinion, this year, oil prices will remain at the same level, i.e. within the range of $50-$60 per barrel,” Gvindadze said.

Once-bullish fund managers start to capitulate on oil prices

Posted on 30 March 2015

Last fall, when the price of oil started dropping, fund manager Craig Hodges figured crude would rebound in 2015 and began buying shares of companies he thought would be unfairly hit, including construction company Primoris Services Corp and Eagle Materials Inc, which produces sand used in fracked wells.

Iran nuclear deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market

Posted on 30 March 2015

Ending economic sanctions against Tehran could be a game changer for the oil markets. Flights to Tehran from Dubai have been crammed in recent months with Western executives flooding into the Iranian capital ahead of a potential lifting of economic sanctions.

Angola joins Venezuela among biggest losers of oil’s tumble

Posted on 30 March 2015

Plunging oil prices have been an economic windfall for U.S. consumers, primarily through greater savings at the pump. In energy-reliant countries around the world like Angola, however, the effect has been far less beneficial.

U.S. oil drillers scrambling to thwart OPEC threat

Posted on 30 March 2015

OPEC and lower global oil prices delivered a one-two punch to the drillers in North Dakota and Texas who brought the U.S. one of the biggest booms in the history of the global oil industry. Now they are fighting back.

Silver’s outperformance versus gold set to continue suggests economist

Posted on 30 March 2015

Gold eased back after a strong run that had seen the spot price rise for seven straight days. Uncertainty over the situation in Yemen, Greece and a rare bout of the wobbles for the dollar spurred the rise, but some profit taking saw spot gold ease US$5 to just under US$1,200.

Hedge funds bet gold gain to fizzle

Posted on 30 March 2015

Hedge funds are betting that gold’s recent rally won’t last and are holding the biggest wager ever that prices will decline. The net-long position in gold dropped by 9.9 per cent to 31,653 futures and options in the week ended March 24, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published three days later.

Iron ore drops to fresh six-year low

Posted on 30 March 2015

Iron ore hit a six-year low on oversupply and a slowdown in China’s property sector. The price of iron ore, for immediate delivery at the port of Qingdao in China, dropped 4 per cent on Friday, the biggest drop since late January, to $US53.14 per tonne, according to Metal Bulletin – the lowest level since the daily pricing index began in 2009.

India: Commexes’ turnover drops 41% till March 15 of FY15

Posted on 30 March 2015

The turnover of commodity exchanges fell by 41 per cent to Rs 58.68 lakh crore till March 15 of 2014-15 on sharp fall in trading volumes in bullion and other commodities, according to Forward Markets Commission (FMC).

Several ETFs set to hit market soon

Posted on 30 March 2015

It could rain Exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the market soon as different fund houses line up innovative variants to this instrument that is gaining popularity in India. ETFs have been a big draw among retail investors in the last one year as they understood the primary benefits of diversification, risk control and lower transaction costs provided by this financial instrument.

Dividend ETFs: Yield, Quality Or A Blend?

Posted on 30 March 2015

In the income investing universe, participants have a predisposition to focusing on ETFs with the highest headline yields. After all, income investors have a way of keying in on a yield that matches up with their spendable cash flow needs.

Why Brazil’s currency is having a real tough time

Posted on 30 March 2015

The Brazilian real moved sharply lower Friday after a gross domestic product report showed Brazil’s economy contracted in the fourth quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. The real traded at 3.23 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 3.19 Thursday.

Currency derivatives trading gains momentum

Posted on 30 March 2015

Volumes in the currency derivatives space are up 80 per cent, compared with that at the start of the financial year. So far in March, the average daily volume for all exchanges combined stood at Rs 32,611 crore, compared with Rs 17,012 crore in April 2014. During this period, the open interest, too, has increased four-fold.

How will energy trading respond to climate change targets?

Posted on 30 March 2015

As other countries follow Switzerland’s lead in setting targets for greenhouse gas cuts, questions arise as to how industry will respond. swissinfo.ch looks at what these moves globally may mean for the energy trading sector.

The World Bank’s Carbon Fund: Undermining indigenous rights or saving the planet?

Posted on 30 March 2015

The World Bank’s emerging Carbon Fund, which provides payments to participating countries that are taking measures to reduce deforestation and carbon emissions, is under scrutiny from civil society leaders and indigenous rights groups, citing its insufficient safeguards to uphold land rights of local and indigenous peoples.

Global economic development: Unsustainable goals

Posted on 27 March 2015

Mary Robinson, a former president of Ireland, calls 2015 “the Bretton Woods moment for our generation”. In 1944 the small town in New Hampshire of that name hosted a conference which was to shape the post-war economic order. The open trading rules it established laid the foundation for decades of post-war growth and the “Bretton Woods twins” that it founded, the IMF and World Bank, still influence global financial governance.

Oil prices rise after fears of more violence in Gulf

Posted on 27 March 2015

Bombing of Yemen spooks investors into believing supply lines could be affected and causing crude to jump 4% on global markets. Oil prices surged on global markets as jumpy investors weighed the risk that tensions in Yemen could spiral into a wider Middle East conflict, choking off crude supplies.

Oil market’s small fry become big fish

Posted on 27 March 2015

Like the old cartoon showing a school of small fish organised to form a big one, retail investors have become a whale in the oil market. Uniting as buyers of exchange traded funds, these investors held 180m barrels equivalent of West Texas Intermediate crude futures last week — 30 per cent of the most active futures market.

The oil price has bottomed out – here’s why

Posted on 27 March 2015

The oil price has been crushed since last summer. It’s gone from over $100 a barrel (both Brent and WTI, the main benchmarks) to as low as below $50. Two main factors have driven this: a healthy supply of oil, and strong demand for US dollars. But both those trends look at risk of reversing. And that could mean a rebound for oil.

Iraq oil minister sees $70 crude by end 2015

Posted on 27 March 2015

Iraq’s Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mehdi predicted world oil prices could reach $70 a barrel by the end of 2015 and played down the impact of the emerging conflict in Yemen on prices. A global slump in oil prices has slashed government revenue in Iraq, prompting the OPEC producer to renegotiate contracts with oil majors as it faces a costly military campaign against Islamic State militants.

Iraq supports Opec policy to defend market share

Posted on 27 March 2015

Iraq supports the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec’s) policy of defending the group’s market share by keeping oil production steady, an Iraqi parliamentary oil official said, despite pressure on the Arab state’s budget.

World Gold Council Tells China to Increase Gold Reserves

Posted on 27 March 2015

China should increase its gold holdings to around 5 percent of its total foreign exchange reserves to help diversify currency risks, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. China currently holds about 1.6 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in gold, which is relatively low compared with developed countries and some developing countries, WGC China managing director Roland Wang said.

Yuan and Gold: Old Enemies Should Finally Become Friends

Posted on 27 March 2015

The Communist Party had good reason to avoid the use of gold when it set up China’s financial system, but having a reserve of the metal offers a range of benefits. We’ll never know if there really were 200 chests of gold on the steamer Taiping, as depicted in John Woo’s recent movie The Crossing, but we can verify that 1,317 cases of central bank records were sunk with the ship in 1949.

Further downside on gold prices limited – CPM

Posted on 27 March 2015

This time of year usually sees the release of three major analytical reports on the gold market – from CPM in the USA and from Metals Focus and GFMS in the UK – and CPM’s Jeff Christian kindly let me have a copy of the former’s analysis which was released earlier this week.

Gold price leaps past $1,200 on safe haven buying

Posted on 27 March 2015

Amid nervousness on US bond and equity markets which are back in negative territory for the year and a spike in oil prices sparked by chaos in the Middle East gold leaped past the psychologically important $1,200 an ounce level on Thursday.

Copper rebounds as Chile closes mines

Posted on 27 March 2015

Copper rebounded as torrential rain in Chile closed some of the biggest mines in the world’s largest producer of the metal. Copper rose as much as 0.5 percent after snapping the longest rally in six weeks on Wednesday. Some of the world’s largest copper mines were forced to shut down as torrential rain in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile closed roads and flooded towns.

banner
banner
March 2015
S M T W T F S
« Feb    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031