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VRS - who has written 38189 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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China’s slowdown is putting pressure on commodities market: Hemindra Hazari

Posted on 28 November 2014

By and large everything has gone up in this market, everything looks over heated. Banking has gone up and people are still talking about that it is the beginning of a multi-year bull cycle run. Commodities are under lot of pressure because China is in a slowdown mode.

Commodities cycle is alive and well – and turned very, very bearish

Posted on 28 November 2014

Anybody who still has lingering doubts that the commodity cycle has turned bearish need only delve into two reports released this week on Australia’s resources sector. The half-yearly report from the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), the government’s forecaster, showed only three projects, worth a total A$597 million ($507 million), reached a positive final investment decision (FID) in the six months to October.

JP Morgan: The best way to invest in commodities right now

Posted on 28 November 2014

Recent falls in commodities prices have brought the natural resources sector back to the lows witnessed last summer. October in particular was a challenging month, mostly due to falling oil prices, with all commodity sub-indices registering negative returns across the month.

Oil plunges as Opec tests the mettle of US shale industry

Posted on 28 November 2014

Opec threw down the gauntlet to US shale oil producers by deciding not to cut its production, in a move that sent the oil price tumbling by more than 8 per cent to a four-year low. The cartel said it was leaving its output ceiling of 30m barrels a day unchanged, in a significant departure from its traditional policy of cutting production to prop up falling oil prices.

Oil price plunges after Opec split keeps output steady

Posted on 28 November 2014

Oil prices have crashed to a new four-year low, below $72 per barrel, after a major split inside Opec forced the cartel to hold production at current levels rather than make cuts to try to turn the market around.

Saudis block OPEC output cut, sending oil price plunging

Posted on 28 November 2014

Saudi Arabia blocked calls on Thursday from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts to arrest a slide in global prices, sending benchmark crude plunging to a fresh four-year low.

The Opec oil price still matters (just not as much as before)

Posted on 28 November 2014

A cursory glance at the history of the oil price since the second world war tells its own story. There are booms when the price of oil is low and busts when the cost of crude rises. Four spikes in oil since 1973 have been matched by four recessions over the same period.

How OPEC’s Vienna Meeting is Playing Out So Far

Posted on 28 November 2014

There’s certainly grumbling among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as they meet at the cartel’s headquarters in Vienna to discuss tumbling oil prices. But oil prices sank to four-year lows Thursday, underlining the market’s perception that the griping won’t lead to action robust enough to stop the slump.

Swiss vote provokes ‘6,000-year gold bubble’ attack

Posted on 28 November 2014

‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ referendum is a primordial scream against a world of quantitative easing but would paralyze the Swiss National bank. Five million Swiss voters will decide on Sunday whether to force the Swiss National Bank to repatriate all its gold from vaults in Britain and Canada, boost its holdings of bullion to 20pc of foreign reserves and then keep the metal forever.

Gold is a 6,000-year bubble - Citi

Posted on 28 November 2014

Citi’s chief economist Willem Buiter has trained his mental shotgun at goldbugs everywhere, and unloaded both barrels. In a research piece published late yesterday, the Anglo-Dutch economist argued that the metal was not so precious and merely a “six thousand year-old bubble” with hardly any real value. Mr Buiter therefore compares gold to the “intrinsically useless” stone money of the Isle of Yap.

Ed Moy: World entering era of greater gold transparency

Posted on 28 November 2014

Edmund C Moy, former US Mint Director and senior aide to President George W Bush, recently joined gold-backed IRA provider Fortress Gold Group as chief strategist. In this interview with MINING.com, Moy discusses growing demand from Asia, paper versus physical markets in gold, the changing central bank landscape and argues that the clamor from citizens for greater transparency about official gold holdings would only grow.

Gold rush in Europe as concern over money printing rises

Posted on 28 November 2014

Many European countries are now moving to repatriate their gold holdings from storage abroad. They are also looking to increase the proportion of gold in their international reserves to assure currency and financial stability.

How JPMorgan struck gold with copper: Andy Home

Posted on 28 November 2014

December 2010 and the copper market was booming. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month metal was charging to the then all-time high of $9,550 per tonne, and front-month spreads were tightening.

A copper bullion story

Posted on 28 November 2014

A tip of the hat to John Kemp for drawing our attention to the latest from Reuters’ base-metals’ reporter Andy Home, who provides some much needed perspective on the nature of cartels in commodities. Namely, the fact they’re probably endemic.

Industrial metals beat wider slump

Posted on 28 November 2014

Miners have watched iron ore sink precipitously this year to a five-year low. That has been repeated for oil and coal, as expectations of global demand have weakened.

Deutsche Bank Shutters Precious Metal Trading Amid Cuts

Posted on 28 November 2014

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Europe’s biggest investment bank, is exiting physical trading of precious metals as it scales back its securities unit to improve returns. Some parts of the business may be shifted to other units of Deutsche Bank and the firm will continue to trade derivatives linked to precious metals, a London-based spokesman for the bank.

Rio Tinto iron ore exports to rise if miner approves new Pilbara project

Posted on 28 November 2014

Rio Tinto’s controversial policy of expanding exports in a depressed iron ore market faces a litmus test on Friday, when the miner is expected to approve more than $US1 billion ($1.17 billion) in spending for a new iron ore mine in the Pilbara.

Iron ore prices - Where’s the bottom?

Posted on 28 November 2014

As the daylight hours shorten and winter chill takes hold of the iron ore mines and surrounding communities in the Labrador Trough, it’s as good a symbol as any of the deep freeze that is engulfing the global iron ore market, as spot prices continue to head south. Back in October, Cliffs Natural Resources said it would permanently close its Wabush iron ore mine on the Labrador side of the Trough, after having laid off some 500 workers in February when it first idled the mine.

Reasons to be optimistic about aluminium in 2015 – Hydro

Posted on 28 November 2014

World aluminium demand outside China is expected to have grown 3-4% over the course of this year and to grow by the same amount in 2015, Norwegian aluminium producer Norsk Hydro has said.

Platinum Declines as ETF Holdings Post Biggest Drop in 6 Months

Posted on 28 November 2014

Platinum fell for the first time in three days as investors sold holdings of exchange-traded funds backed by the metal at the fastest pace in six months. Gold retreated as oil dropped to a four-year low.

Agribusiness ETFs in Focus on Deere Earnings Beat and Weak Outlook

Posted on 28 November 2014

The world’s largest agricultural equipment maker, Deere & Co, released fourth-quarter 2014 results before the opening bell on Wednesday. Though the company surpassed our estimates on both the top and bottom lines, it provided a gloomy outlook on fiscal 2015.

Euronext to launch dairy derivatives in 2015

Posted on 28 November 2014

European exchanges operator Euronext will launch a range of dairy futures and options next year, betting the abolition of European Union milk production quotas will spur demand for hedging and pricing tools in the industry.

Citi Chief Economist: Bitcoin is Closest Commodity to Gold

Posted on 28 November 2014

Gold is a commodity like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Citi’s chief economist argues in a research note published yesterday, ahead of a Swiss vote that could cause the global gold price to spike.

Nigeria currency devaluation to curb banks’ Eurobond bonanza

Posted on 28 November 2014

Nigerian banks’ overseas borrowing bonanza looks to be over in the wake of a dramatic currency devaluation this week, but while risks are rising, repaying existing debt should not be a problem for most.

Guangdong carbon market to restrict access to offset credits

Posted on 28 November 2014

China’s biggest carbon market in Guangdong is going to clamp down on the use of cheaper credits generated by large government-regulated mitigation projects in an attempt to prop up prices in an oversupplied market.

EU agrees on law to make ships measure CO2 emissions

Posted on 28 November 2014

For the first time, the shipping sector will have to monitor its carbon emissions under a law agreed upon by the European Union Wednesday (26 November), intended as a step towards tackling a growing source of pollutants linked to climate change.

Commodities Guru Sees Bullish Markets Ahead

Posted on 27 November 2014

Roughly seven years ago, commodity prices were surging to record highs as Western economies grew at a decent pace and Asian economies experienced supercharged growth. Though the 2008 financial crisis led to a pullback, commodity prices began moving higher again in 2009 and 2010 as economists predicted a synchronized global economic rebound.

Jim Rogers Weighs In on Commodities

Posted on 27 November 2014

Roughly seven years ago, when China’s economy was surging and dollars were cheaper, “commodities” was one of the sexiest words in the investment lexicon. Seven years later, many commodities—including oil, copper, and gold—have fallen in value and out of favor for a host of reasons.

World on brink of oil price war as Opec set to keep pumping

Posted on 27 November 2014

Oil slumped on Wednesday as expectations that Opec will cut production faded following dovish remarks by cartel kingpin Saudi Arabia, which could signal the beginning of a price war. Speaking on the sidelines ahead of Thursday’s critical meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) in Vienna, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi said: “The market will stabilise itself eventually”.

Saudi oil minister expects oil price to ’stabilise’ as OPEC gathers

Posted on 27 November 2014

Oil prices are likely to again come under pressure Wednesday after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister showed little sign of concern ahead of a crucial meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the gathering of some of the world’s biggest oil producing countries in Vienna, Ali Al-Naimi said: “The market will stabilise itself eventually”.

Russia sees average oil price at $80-90 in medium, long-term

Posted on 27 November 2014

Russia sees an average oil price of around $80-90 per barrel in the medium- and possibly in the long-term, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday, underlining growing pressure on the Russian budget.

Saudis to push OPEC to cut output: CNBC survey

Posted on 27 November 2014

Saudi Arabia will this week push the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production by up to 1.5 million barrels a day to help re-balance the market and lift oil prices from their four-year lows, analysts and strategists told CNBC.

Winter of discontent for oil producers?

Posted on 27 November 2014

Global oil producers could face a bleak winter unless OPEC heavyweights reverse course as they head into a critical meeting and reach an agreement on production cuts to boost sagging prices.

Gold price eyed as investors await Swiss vote

Posted on 27 November 2014

Gold prices slipped on Wednesday from this week’s highs, as the market awaited a Swiss referendum on central bank gold reserves. On November 30, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to decide whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should refrain from selling any more gold and should boost its gold holdings to 20 percent, up from current levels of 7 percent.

Gold rangebound below $1,200/oz as Asia buying evaporates

Posted on 27 November 2014

Gold eased slightly on Wednesday then steadied at just under $1,200 an ounce for another rangebound session as Asian overnight buying evaporated amid low volumes ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday and a key Swiss vote on bullion holdings.

Silver price outperforming gold – PGM’s rise

Posted on 27 November 2014

Lack of agreement by key OPEC members yesterday to pledge cutbacks ahead of Thursday OPEC meeting sent oil prices lower and that led to an intraday sell-off in bullion, but prices recovered by the close, ending up 0.7 percent on average, with platinum up the most with a 1.2 percent gain in price to $1,220 and gold finished up 0.4 percent at $1,201.40.

The 2015 Metals Outlook Series: Gold

Posted on 27 November 2014

Gold has peaked, but the current price schizophrenia of spikes and troughs that have been experienced over the last six months will soon be at an end. However there is still likely to be pain for a number of unproductive gold miners as the commodity price goes through a rationalisation phase operations with high costs per ounce are likely to fall as the market becomes tighter.

Copper Falls to Eight-Month Low on U.S. Equipment Orders

Posted on 27 November 2014

Copper futures fell to an eight-month low as orders for business equipment unexpectedly dropped in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal. Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft declined 1.3 percent in October, a government report showed today. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a 1 percent gain. A slump in energy futures damped the outlook for some commodities.

HSBC, Goldman rigged platinum prices

Posted on 27 November 2014

Goldman Sachs and HSBC were sued in New York over claims they conspired for eight years to manipulate prices for the precious metals platinum and palladium in what plaintiffs’ lawyers say is the first class-action lawsuit of its kind in the US.

State Street to Debut ‘Low Carbon’ ETF on Friday

Posted on 27 November 2014

State Street Global Advisors is set to launch the market’s first-ever low-carbon exchange-traded fund on Friday, according to a trader alert from exchange operator Bats Global Markets. The ETF, called the SPDR MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF, will arrange a basket of global stocks by their low carbon footprints, according to the ETF’s most recent filing with regulators. It follows a passive index to do so.

Who Will Benefit From Digital Currency?

Posted on 27 November 2014

One of the questions that’s still an open question is whether, if all your friends had Bitcoin, if you would find it useful to use Bitcoin too. Right now, people don’t use Bitcoin to split checks, because for every person who has Bitcoin, most of their friends don’t. But if you had a whole community of people who all had Bitcoin, would they find this to be more convenient than using cash or other options?

How foreign currencies affect your investment returns

Posted on 27 November 2014

There is money to be made from backing the right foreign currencies via the right funds. Here we predict the future winners. The movement of currencies on the foreign exchanges may sound like a matter for professional traders in the City of London, not ordinary investors. But, in fact, anyone with an Isa should appreciate the risks – and opportunities – that can be offered by currency fluctuations.
Over the next couple of years, small fortunes are there to be made not just by picking the right funds or shares but [...]

Time To Rethink Currency Hedged ETF Use

Posted on 27 November 2014

Yesterday’s surprisingly strong GDP numbers—third-quarter annualized growth was revised up to 3.9 percent—has many investors scratching their heads. To say we’re in a world of conflicting economic news would be an understatement.

Huaneng sets up China’s first carbon fund

Posted on 27 November 2014

State-owned power generator Huaneng on Wednesday set up China’s first carbon fund, which will focus on trading carbon permits in the emissions trading scheme in Hubei province.

New Carbon Market Most Important in Climate Deal, U.K. Says

Posted on 27 November 2014

A new carbon market that will spur emerging nations to cut emissions is the key element of next year’s planned global climate accord, a U.K. official said.

Commodities accumulators panic – from Vienna to Zurich

Posted on 26 November 2014

The fact that the accumulators of the world’s key commodities are gathering this week in Austria (OPEC on oil) and Switzerland (Swiss vote on gold reserves) to rein in a sharp decline in their valued resources is a manifestation of rising deflation risks emerging from a strengthening US dollar and a slowing Chinese economy.

Venezuela Seeks Oil Price Up Back at $100 a Barrel

Posted on 26 November 2014

Venezuela wants oil prices to return to $100 a barrel, the country’s foreign minister said on Tuesday, ahead of an OPEC meeting. Speaking to reporters, Rafael Ramirez, who will represent Venezuela at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries gathering on Thursday, said “the [oil] price has to be $100 per barrel, [that] is a fair price.”

Iran parliament suggests $75-80/bbl oil price for budget

Posted on 26 November 2014

Iran’s parliament recommends basing next year’s budget on an oil price of $75-80 a barrel, a senior lawmaker was reported as saying on Monday, down from $100 in the 2014 budget plan. “It seems the trend of decline in oil prices will continue and a return to previous oil prices is not expected,” the official IRNA news agency reported Gholamreza Tajgardoon, head of parliament’s planning and budget commission, as saying.

US energy is growing, and so is US ‘power’

Posted on 26 November 2014

America’s unexpected transformation into the world’s biggest natural gas producer and one of the globe’s largest oil producers will give the U.S. more geopolitical clout on the world stage—including in key relationships with China, Russia and the Middle East.

Gold prices may surge if Swiss vote on reserves passes

Posted on 26 November 2014

Global gold prices may surge in the coming week if Swiss voters approve a controversial measure that would force their country’s central bank to keep at least a fifth of its assets in gold. If the referendum Sunday passes and the Swiss government is forced to start beefing up its reserves, the price of gold could jump to more than $1,350 an ounce — an increase of 18%, Bank of America predicts.

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