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VRS - who has written 46975 posts on Opalesque Commodities Briefing.


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Commodities ‘At Bottom,’ Says World Bank as Rebound Seen

Posted on 28 July 2016

Commodities will probably rebound next year as demand strengthens, according to the World Bank, adding its voice to those including Citigroup Inc. who’ve forecast that 2017 may be a better year for raw-material prices.

Baltic index down as rates for large vessels stay weak

Posted on 28 July 2016

The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell on Wednesday on weaker rates for larger vessels and supramaxes.

Commodity Prices Just Can’t Seem To Stay Up

Posted on 28 July 2016

Oil prices dropped to a five month low yesterday with the apparent culprit being oversupply. Commodity prices, in general, have also tended to move in the same direction as oil prices, reflecting a feeling that there will be no real pickup in prices anytime soon.

The Price Rally Is Over: Capital Drives the Oil Market to Low Prices

Posted on 28 July 2016

The current oil-price rally is over. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low.

Could the oil price fall below $40 a barrel?

Posted on 28 July 2016

The oil price is still stuck near a recent near three-month low – and some analysts believe it could fall below $40 a barrel before the latest downward move is finished.

Why Saudi Arabia Continues To Pump Crude At Record Levels

Posted on 28 July 2016

As the Financial Times reported on 12 July, Saudi Arabia’s oil-output reached record highs in June 2016. Increasing production 280,000 barrels/day to 10.6m b/d, Saudi Arabia has once again waved off OPEC’s request not to glut the market with oil.

The Oil Price Recovery Is Drowning in Gasoline

Posted on 28 July 2016

Just when it appeared crude oil’s supply problems were easing, a glut of gasoline is drowning the market’s hopes for a recovery.

BNP Paribas Raises Gold-Price Forecast But Sees New Downtrend

Posted on 28 July 2016

There is at least one more bear in the woods as analysts at BNP Paribas increase their gold -price forecast for 2016 but look for the price to trend lower through the rest of the year and 2017.

Gold Moves Higher After Fed Statement

Posted on 28 July 2016

Investors who stepped to sidelines ahead of central bank meeting will likely jump back in, strategist says. Gold prices traded higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted at the possibility of an increase in the coming months.

Why gold prices spiked after the Fed decision

Posted on 28 July 2016

Gold futures rallied to their highest level in two weeks late Wednesday in electronic trading. Many gold investors settled on the notion that the Federal Reserve was actually dovish—in favor of maintaining low interest rates—despite the central bank leaving an interest-rate rise on the table for September.

More gold price falls? Factors to watch out for

Posted on 28 July 2016

More downside is expected for gold as investors anxiously await the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates that will be known on Wednesday evening. Analysts are forecasting the bullion to move lower towards $1,300 per ounce instead of climbing to the $1,400 level.

Base metal mining market - infrastructure development activities to be key enabler of growth

Posted on 28 July 2016

Global estimates entail that nearly 40% of the world economy is directly or indirectly affected by the mining industry. Consistent supply of base metals such as copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum, and tin is central to the development of sectors such as infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, transportation, equipment, and utilities. Flourishing growth across these sectors in the past few years, especially in developing regions such as Asia Pacific, is the major demand driver of base metals in the global market.

Japan’s spot aluminum premiums fall as stocks rise in Asia

Posted on 28 July 2016

S&P Global Platts assessed spot premiums for aluminum imports into Japan at $76-$77/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan Wednesday, down from $79-$80/mt the day before, under pressure from rising stocks in Asia.

New Call To Boost European ETF Lending

Posted on 28 July 2016

Securities industry veterans Roy Zimmerhansl and Andrew Howieson have published a white paper calling for structural changes in the European ETF market to facilitate the more widespread lending of fund shares.

Learn: Precious Metals ETPs

Posted on 28 July 2016

Investors turn to gold, silver and platinum for many reasons: inflation protection, risk management or even speculation. Metals ETPs have been enormously popular with investors in part because they can actually hold and store the physical underlying metal; thus, their fair value reflects the actual spot price.

India: MCX wins best commodity exchange award

Posted on 28 July 2016

The country’s largest commodity exchange MCX has been awarded as the ‘Best Commodity Exchange’ by the Bullion Federation, a national level apex body of bullion industry.

Why currency wars will cause the world more financial pain

Posted on 28 July 2016

The currency wars raging across global markets are entering a more dangerous phase. Japan and Europe are likely to further ease monetary policy in an attempt to weaken their currencies to address the lack of growth and low inflation.

Scotland Considering Cryptocurrency as Independent Currency Option

Posted on 28 July 2016

People in Scotland have started exploring different currency options following Brexit. There have been calls for the Scottish referendum in the past. While Scotland decided against leaving the United Kingdom in the past, the recent vote by Englanders to leave the European Union may soon have the UK witnessing renewed calls for the separation of Scotland.

Climate Change and Emissions Trading Programs

Posted on 28 July 2016

Climate change is a global problem — but its solution relies on national, regional, and local policy actions. Take the issue of greenhouse gas emissions markets, which put a price on, say, the amount of carbon a country can release into the atmosphere.

Indonesia to tap into rich blue carbon potential

Posted on 28 July 2016

The nation is set to take advantage of its blue carbon potential, estimated to be huge, as the country’s seagrass and mangroves account for 17 percent of the world’s blue carbon reserves.

Buy Commodities; They Shouldn’t Be Tanking

Posted on 27 July 2016

There’s a new meme going around that claims that we’re heading into a global economic slowdown. It sounds a lot like the other dire warnings that we heard in February, May and most recently in June right after the Brexit vote: “Slowdown! Crash! Recession! Catastrophe!” But the fearmongers were wrong then, and I believe that they’re wrong now.

Why Commodities Stay Low While Growth Continues

Posted on 27 July 2016

The commodity pits are aghast. The economy keeps growing while commodity prices remain depressed. Inconceivable does mean what they think it means. Efficiency is the decade’s watchword. Public good demand will come, from somewhere, next year.

Can commodities maintain their Midas touch?

Posted on 27 July 2016

Commodities have been on a tear this year. Led by gold, the commodity complex emerged as the best performing asset class of the second quarter and first half of 2016, according to Citigroup. The Wall Street bank expects the strong performance of commodities to continue this quarter and through to the end of the year, as investors continue to show interest in commodity-based investment funds.

Is The Commodity Rebound Over?

Posted on 27 July 2016

One of these two camps of risk assets is sending the wrong signal: Emerging markets and junk bonds, or commodities – and more particularly, oil. While crude oil and commodities in general have weakened notably in July, both emerging markets and junk bonds finished on a high note last Friday.

Despite Slump in Commodity Prices, Africa among Fastest Growing Regions

Posted on 27 July 2016

Notwithstanding a relative slowdown as a result of the prolong drop in commodity prices, sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the fastest growing regions in the world, a report has shown.

World Bank Raises Oil Prices Forecast to $43

Posted on 27 July 2016

The World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $43 per barrel from $41 per barrel due to supply outages and robust demand in the second quarter. Oil prices jumped 37 percent in the second quarter of 2016 due to disruptions to supply, particularly wildfires in Canada and sabotage of oil infrastructure in Nigeria. The revised forecast appears in the World Bank’s latest Commodities Markets Outlook and takes into account a recent softening of demand and the recovery of some disrupted supply.

The question is not why oil prices have fallen, but why they have not fallen further

Posted on 27 July 2016

Hedge funds and other money managers have begun to amass another large short position in futures and options contracts linked to the price of crude oil. But the current wave of short-selling has been associated with a much smaller decline in WTI prices than last summer, at least so far.

Oil slumps on surging supply but global economy picks up speed

Posted on 27 July 2016

Oil prices have tumbled to a three-month low as surging supply once again exposes the chronic global glut and threatens to perpetuate the energy slump for another year. US crude contracts crashed through key technical barriers to $42.40 on Tuesday before recovering slightly in late trading on profit-taking. They have fallen by 9pc over the last four sessions.

Oil market disaster: This is a glut without end in sight, expert says

Posted on 27 July 2016

The oil industry is still “a disaster,” with an oversupply issue that doesn’t appear to be balancing out anytime soon, John Kidluff, partner at Again Capital, said Tuesday. Kilduff, who has been bearish on crude, pointed out that refiners are soon going to go into their seasonal maintenance.

Turkey crisis: how will oil and gas supplies be affected?

Posted on 27 July 2016

The Turkish military’s attempted coup to topple president Recep Tayyip Erdogan didn’t last long. The government restored control the following day and soon declared a three-month state of emergency, with more than 60,000 people since arrested or placed under investigation.

The death of OPEC

Posted on 27 July 2016

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is dead. Saudi Arabia killed it. Now, OPEC is just a toothless zombie, attracting attention, but without having any impact on the living.

GFMS lifts 2016 gold price

Posted on 27 July 2016

Changed sentiment stemming from increased uncertainty from economic and political outlooks has prompted GFMS to revise its 2016 average gold price forecast. These include the Brexit, reduced expectations of a rate rise from the Fed, a wobbly Italian banking sector and the US presidential race, it said in its latest gold survey report on Tuesday.

Gold market surplus shrinks as fund inflows offset weak Asian buying

Posted on 27 July 2016

A surge in Western gold investment helped offset sliding Asian demand in the second quarter, GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said on Tuesday, as they hiked their gold price forecast for the year in response to jitters over the economic outlook.

Buying Gold Today Could Bring You a Profit of 278%

Posted on 27 July 2016

The gold price today (Tuesday, July 26) was up 0.37% and trading at $1,321.20 an ounce. Gold prices are up 25% in 2016, putting the metal among the top 10 best-performing assets this year. But that’s just the start of gold’s rally…

How Investor Appetite for Risk Impacts Precious Metals

Posted on 27 July 2016

Gold has seen a downward swing and has extended its first back-to-back weekly drop since May. Gold and silver have seen trailing-five-day losses of 0.9% and 2.7%, respectively. The reason behind the fall in the precious metals is the buoyancy of the equity markets and the gains in the US dollar. Both factors have significantly hurt the precious metals.

Nickel Leads Metals Lower on Demand Concerns as Oil Retreats

Posted on 27 July 2016

Nickel and zinc fell to one-week lows as weaker oil prices heightened concerns over the health of the global economy. Oil closed at the lowest since April in New York amid speculation that fuel stockpiles increased in the U.S., the world’s biggest fuel-consuming nation. Weaker oil prices cut mining costs and reduce the price floor for metal production.

July Zinc Price Forecast: Multi-Month Highs Reached

Posted on 27 July 2016

Zinc prices , along with nickel, rallied to hit multi-month highs last week as investors hedged on continued supply disruptions. According to a report from the Financial Times, the zinc price climbed to its highest point in 14 months to $2,275.5 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.

Asia alumina: Australia price slips $1/mt to $235/mt FOB

Posted on 27 July 2016

The Australian alumina daily assessment slipped $1/mt to $235/mt FOB on Tuesday, as buyers remained scarce amid a generally pessimistic market outlook. “There’s no one buying at the moment, as everyone is expecting the market to go down further, probably breaking below $230/mt soon,” an Asian consumer source said.

ETF Stats For June 2016: More Teeter-Totter Failures

Posted on 27 July 2016

Thirty-two new ETFs and ETNs came to market in June, and three closed up shop. The net increase of 29 puts the listed count at 1,931 (1,729 ETFs and 202 ETNs) at the end of June. Assets climbed by $30.6 billion, with $19.3 billion coming from inflows and $11.2 billion the result of market action. Overall assets of U.S.-listed ETFs and ETNs now stand at $2.25 trillion.

Hedge funds suffer $20.7bn net outflows in June

Posted on 27 July 2016

Industry endures its longest sequence of quarterly withdrawals since 2009. Global hedge funds suffered net outflows of $20.7bn in June, as investors pulled more of their money out despite improved performance from most managers.

Russia’s Currency Is Turning a Blind Eye to Oil Prices

Posted on 27 July 2016

The Russian ruble is proving surprisingly impervious to the price of oil. The currency of the world’s largest energy exporter has more or less ignored the value of the commodity in the past few months, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Luis Costa. Usually when oil prices fall, so does the currency, but not so recently:

Florida judge rules bitcoin is not currency

Posted on 27 July 2016

The judge threw out money laundering charges against a man who sold bitcoins to undercover cops. In a win for bitcoin advocates, a Florida judge on Monday ruled that bitcoins do not count as money, throwing out felony charges against a website designer accused of illegally transmitting and laundering $1,500 worth of bitcoins.

Carbon Trade Exchange rebrands after launch of new platform

Posted on 27 July 2016

Carbon Trade Exchange (CTX), a global leader in environmental commodity markets, today announced that the firm has launched a new technology platform and has rebranded as Colonial Bourses.

If Carbon Pricing Is So Great, Why Isn’t It Working?

Posted on 27 July 2016

Political hurdles and low prices have made carbon pricing a low-impact affair. But there’s still hope it can help limit climate change. Earth’s atmosphere has long served as a free dump for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases generated by humans.

Brexit heightens uncertainty in global economy, says G20

Posted on 26 July 2016

UK must remain a close partner of EU after leaving the bloc to reduce economic turmoil, finance chiefs say in communique. Britain’s vote to leave the EU heightens risks for the world economy, and the UK must remain a close partner of the bloc after Brexit to reduce turmoil, finance chiefs from the G20 group of leading countries have said.

Commodities have some investors saying no

Posted on 26 July 2016

Institutional investors are wondering whether investing in commodities is worth the trouble, as the asset class has suffered an annualized return of -6.46% in the 10 years through June 30. Indeed, the Bloomberg Commodity index has been negative each month for the past 12 months. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index, which includes the return of the collateral, showed a return of -5.48% over the same 10-year period.

Major mining assets change hands after commodity rout

Posted on 26 July 2016

Large mining companies are selling off prized assets after the prolonged global commodities markets rout left some with high levels of debt. Anglo American, Glencore and Freeport have been at the forefront of those companies trying to sell, but BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have also been seeking to rationalise their assets while signalling an interest in acquisitions.

Here’s Why Some Huge Hedge Funds Think Oil Prices Could Plunge Again

Posted on 26 July 2016

Hedge funds have been liquidating their former record bullish position in crude futures and options putting downward pressure on oil prices in recent weeks. But now the liquidation of old long positions is being replaced by the establishment of new short positions as fund managers try to capitalize on the downward cycle in prices.

Oil Market: American Frackers And Iran Are Ready To Spoil Saudi Arabia’s Grand Plan

Posted on 26 July 2016

Saudi Arabia has a grand plan: sell shares of state-owned company Aramco to the public to finance its vision 2030, which will make its economy less dependent on oil. The success of Aramco’s IPO, which promises to be the biggest in history, relies heavily on the state of the oil and equity markets, at the time for the “road show”–the marketing of IPO.

The oil price may have bottomed out – but there could be turbulence ahead

Posted on 26 July 2016

That’s it. We’ve seen the bottom for the oil market. At least, that’s what two of the biggest oilfield services companies in the world – Schlumberger and Halliburton – believe.

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