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Commodity trading – Chapter 1: History of commodity trading (13 chapters)

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Unbelievably Futures Trading dates back to 17 th Century Japan. The first ever case noted concerned rice. However, there is also evidence that rice futures were traded in China as far back as 6,000 years ago.
Future trading is a natural progression of things in response to the difficulties of maintaining a year round supply of products which are dependable on seasons like agricultural crops. In ancient Japan, rice used to be stored in warehouses for future consumption by the rice merchants………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Glencore and Xstrata in talks over GBP50bln ‘merger of equals’

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Ivan GlasenbergIvan Glasenberg, the chief executive of the world’s largest commodities trader Glencore, has been pushing for a deal for years, but price could be an issue. Commodities trader Glencore and miner Xstrata are in active talks about merging to create a £50bn global mining group.
News of the talks, which could lead to a deal being formally announced as early as next week, sent shares in Xstrata rocketing almost 10% to close at £12.30 and Glencore shares were up almost 7% to 461.70p……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Make way for “Glenstrata” as Glencore and Xstrata talk commodities merger

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Glencore, the world’s largest publicly traded commodities supplier, has confirmed that it has made an approach about an all-share offer for the stake in Switzerland-based Xstrata that it does not already own as part of its current 34% holding.
The combination of the Zug-based Xstrata with Glencore, located just two miles away in Baar, would decisively bring together the two groups that separated a decade ago when Xstrata bought Glencore’s Australian and South African coal mines for $2.5 billion and went public in London………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Bets on raw materials rising most since ‘06 as factories grow: Commodities

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investments in commodities are expanding at the quickest pace in six years on signs of rising economic growth, even as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warn that some prices have rallied too fast.
The number of futures contracts on 24 commodities from oil to copper rose 9.3 percent last month, the most since January 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The commodities supercycle

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The rise of commodities may not be a fad. Instead, it may be a product of social behavior and theory. I present to you the premise of the “commodity supercycle.”
The concept is more than vague investor intuition; its theory is based on the work of twentieth-century economists who studied the result of demographic shifts in populations. These shifts resulted in specific effects regarding the demand for basic commodities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Diamond markets ripe for speculative buying

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The diamond market has opened 2012 sluggishly with both rough and polished prices easing. Although the retail sector experienced a steady Holiday Season, the sentiment in the global diamond trading market is being influenced by the volatile macro-economic state of affairs. Jitteriness has thus crept back into the diamond market with traders becoming more eager to diminish inventory levels.
The major rough diamond suppliers reduced their prices in January in line with market expectations sending a clear message of cautiousness throughout the diamond pipeline. Now the markets are looking to China as it enters into the crucial Chinese New Year as a source of positive momentum leading into Valentines Day………………………………………..Full Article: Source

The gold price & gold investment

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

After appreciating that to invest in gold is to preserve one’s capital and purchasing power before chasing any potential capital appreciation, investors need to understand another critical issue within gold investment.
Investors often ask if the fact that the gold price has risen by over six times since 2000 means that this gold bull market cannot go much further. The short answer is no, but to understand this means understanding the different between judging gold investment simply by the gold price, or by the actual value of gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global financial crisis could push gold to $2,500/oz- Newcrest

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Newcrest Mining, the world’s No.3 gold producer, expects gold to trade as high as $2,500 an ounce and retain its safe harbour status for as long as the world’s financial system remains in crisis mode.
Newcrest chief executive Greg Robinson told a business lunch on Thursday gold will remain a hedge against a global financial breakdown, citing risks such as a devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the global currency, European economies in dire shape and persistent political tensions throughout the globe………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold may hit $2,000 within 3 months: James Turk

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

We started this year in an unusual position. Normally, we see seasonal strength in the last quarter. We didn’t get it. We’d been in a correction since the high in Silver back in April 2011. The high in gold came during the summer, which was very unusual, but basically both metals have been moving sideways.
Starting from the end of a correction, value is more important than seasonality. Clearly, gold and silver both represent good, undervalued assets at the moment………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Schaeffer Collins foresees gold prices over $2,000 this year

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Schaeffer Collins Chief Executive George Schaeffer said he expects global financial worries to push gold prices above $2,000 an ounce this year and even higher in the next few years. He also said major gold mining companies should increase dividends to attract investors. Shareholders currently are not getting the kind of returns they should expect with the gold price so high, he added.
“Gold (company) shares are undervalued and the gold price is going higher because of all the financial uncertainties. You will see a continued shift of investors putting more of their portfolios into gold,” Schaeffersaid. “It’s on its way to $5,000 in the next three or four years,” he added. (Press Release)

Gold producers receive optimistic analysts’ forecasts

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott shared a bullish gold outlook for the next 12 months, expecting gold to reach an all time high over $2,000 per troy ounce some time this year, with silver also climbing to a high above $50.
This strengthening of spot market prices would imply growth rates of around 20 percent and 64 percent from Wednesday’s valuations when gold traded at $1,658.90 per troy ounce with silver at $30.52………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Why gold stocks are the best way to play bullion rally

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

For many years, the price of gold moved up only when the stock market moved down. With limited supply and strong demand, the precious metal was the logical place to be when the global investment landscape was looking a little ragged.
No longer. Gold – unlike everything else – has rallied in each of the past 10 years. It’s gone up when the U.S. dollar was soft and when the greenback was strong, when inflationary worries were paramount and when deflationary anxieties were in the headlines, when the economy was in recession and when it was expanding………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold prices: Bull market or fool’s gold?

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The price of gold has been bullish so far in 2012, jumping almost 11 percent so far this year. Thursday was consistent with these rising prices, with the price jumping almost 0.75 percent and pushing the commodity past its eight-week high to over $1,755 an ounce on the third straight day of rising prices.
What does this mean for the price of gold going forward? Depending on who you ask, it’s either going to rise or fall in price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Silver’s path rarely smooth; don’t forget the dark clouds

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Silver fell 44% last year, the most by any metal. Many punters in India lost their shirts. Silver is up 20% in January. Is it a good time to once again dip your toe in the water?
The confusion is not surprising. Some believe silver is headed up. Hedge funds and other money managers have more than doubled wagers on higher prices this year and the biggest bet is on silver touching $40 by June, up from $33 today……………………………………….Full Article: Source

Aluminium to hit $2,400/ton before the end of May; $2,600 before 2012

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Aluminum is no longer in a downtrend and they look for further prices gains. LME aluminum hit a four-month high of $2,310 a metric ton in late January, said Harbor Intelligence in a research note.
According to Harbor Intelligence, investment activity was the most significant driver of the price action with funds buying to cover positions in which they previously sold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Rare earth demand to outstrip supply by over 30,000 tonnes in 2012

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

In December 2011, the US Department of Energy (DoE) released the 2011 ‘Critical Materials Strategy’, a report that examines the role of materials such as rare earth metals in the ‘clean energy economy.’
The report cautions that the US runs the risk of facing disruptions in its short-term rare earth supply chain until 2015 at least. Shortage of five critical rare earth minerals—dysprosium, europium, neodymium, terbium and yttrium—could create expensive interruptions in the production of electric vehicles, wind turbines and energy-efficient lighting………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Copper declines as China demand may ebb

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Copper fell for the fourth time in five sessions in New York amid signs that demand may ease in China, the world’s biggest buyer of industrial metals. Lead and aluminum fell more than 3 percent in London.
House prices in China slid in January for the fifth straight month, SouFun Holdings Ltd., the nation’s largest owner of real-estate websites, said yesterday. The Copper Development Association says construction generates a quarter of demand for the metal. Copper premiums in Shanghai dropped below $100 a metric ton for the first time since August as inventories expand, suggesting imports that were at a record in December may ebb………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Global coal demand picking up on cooling economic crisis

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

The global Coal industry, which experienced a prolonged spell of bleakness in 2008-09 due to the worldwide economic crisis is now finally looking up and providing a better outlook, according to New Report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc.
According to the report, the global coal consumption is likely to reach 5,168 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) by 2015 as the demand is picking up on the back of huge appetite for thermal and metallurgical coal from emerging nations such as China and India, as well as resurgent demand from developed countries in the aftermath of the Japanese nuclear incident………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil price could fall to $70 in 2012 amid volatility, Shell warns

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Oil prices could fall to $70 a barrel during 2012, from current levels above $110, as high volatility in the economy and energy markets becomes “a fact of life”, Royal Dutch Shell executives said.
The oil giant unveiled its 2011 results on Thursday, with a 54pc jump in full-year profits to $28.6bn (£18.1bn). High oil prices helped to compensate for a tough fourth quarter in which Shell reported a loss in its ‘downstream’ refining and marketing division………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Oil may beat expectations on OPEC subsidies, Deutsche Bank says

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Crude oil prices may rise faster than expected because surging domestic demand in OPEC nations, boosted by subsidies, will soak up supply, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
Last month, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to remove fuel subsidies triggered violent protests, and a week- long strike by labor unions, highlighting the difficulty of cutting allowances for other nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Mark Lewis, a Paris-based managing director at the bank………………………………………..Full Article: Source

iShares launches 5 commodities ETFs

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

iShares launched five separate equity ETFs today focused on commodities, in the latest sign the world’s biggest exchange-traded fund firm is willing to compete by rolling out increasingly granular investment strategies.
With the new commodities-focused equities ETFs, iShares is offering exposure to almost the whole world of natural resources, including industrial metals, precious metals, agriculture and energy. The new funds are part of a push among ETF firms to serve up different types of commodities funds related to rising global demand for everything from oil to copper to corn and even gold………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Can the uranium ETF hold on to reecent gains?

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Thanks to the disaster in Japan almost a year ago, the nuclear power sector, and more specifically, companies that mine uranium, have been extremely hard hit. Firms in this corner of the economy nearly collapsed as a variety of nations around the world swore off nuclear power even despite sometimes being far removed from any type of severe weather or natural events (such as Germany).
Thanks to this lack of commitment to more nuclear power by some, as well as deep concerns over the safety of the fuel source, many investors dumped everything uranium related in 2011………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Investing in commodities: Detailing the top commodity exchanges

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodity investing has become increasing popular in recent years as the exchange traded world has opened this once elusive asset class wide open. Still, one of the most effective ways to maintain exposure to your favorite hard asset remains through futures contracts. For the average investor, futures are typically too complex; they can be extremely dangerous, hard to understand, and require a specified account just to trade them.
As such, many turn to futures-based ETFs and ETNs to gain their desired positions. While these products can be sound investments, investing in the futures yourself remains the most direct and potentially most profitable way to make a play on the commodity space……………………………………….Full Article: Source

CME Group ups dividend, sets up $100 mln commodity fund

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Futures exchange operator CME Group announced Thursday disappointing fourth-quarter earnings that were overshadowed with a dividend hike and a new annual payout. The CME Group operates the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade and the New York Mercantile Exchange.
For the quarter that ended December 31, the company earned $745.9 million, or $11.25 per share, up from $196.2 million, or $2.93 per share, a year earlier. The latest results included a $528 million benefit from an adjustment to the value of deferred tax liabilities………………………………………..Full Article: Source

February’s hot investing ticket? Industrial commodities

Posted on 03 February 2012 by VRS |  Email |Print

Investing in the month of February frequently is hazardous to your financial health. Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes that February is the second weakest month for performance by U.S. equity indices. The weakest month is September. On average, the S&P 500 Index has lost 0.2 per cent in February during the past 60 years.
The interesting exception in February is performance of industrial commodities. During the past 10 periods, the month of February has been their strongest month in the year………………………………………..Full Article: Source

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