Sun, Feb 1, 2015
A A A
Welcome preal121
RSS
Commodities Briefing 30.Jan 2015

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks the global prices of 22 different commodities such as gold and oil, collapses to lowest level since August 2002. The world’s leading index of commodity prices has slumped to its lowest level in more than 12 years as China slows and America hints at tightening monetary policy.
The Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 different commodity prices such as gold, natural gas and oil, fell 0.3pc to 99.84 in early trading, the lowest point since August 2002………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

A measure of global shipping costs for commodities fell to a 28-year low as slowing growth in China’s demand for cargoes compounds the effect a fleet glut. The Baltic Dry Index plunged 5.1 percent to 632 points, the lowest since Aug. 22, 1986, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London on Thursday. Freight rates for all the vessel types within the measure declined.
China, the world’s biggest buyer of of coal and iron ore, will increase imports of the two commodities by 6 percent this year, down from a growth rate of 8.7 percent in 2014, according to estimates from Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker. The nation’s economic expansion this year will be the slowest since 1990, the average of 67 economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg shows………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Bunge, the international agricultural trader, is closing its sugar and ethanol operations in London and moving them to Geneva, the home of its grain trading hub. Its decision is counterintuitive, especially at a time when the jump in the currency after the Swiss ditched their franc cap has pushed.
Bunge says the move will “improve efficiency and further integrate with our core trading businesses”, and there are worse places in the world to work. Commodities traders have a long history in Switzerland, especially in Geneva. Easy access to finance, low taxes and relatively light regulation have made it a good place to do business………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Those hoping for a quick recovery in the price of oil might end up being disappointed, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays forecasting the slump to continue for much of 2015. Barclays has slashed its forecast average price of Brent crude for this year to $US44 a barrel, down nearly $US30 from its early-December forecast of $US72 a barrel, before recovering to $US60 in 2016.
Goldman Sachs is forecasting WTI oil to trade about $US44 a barrel for the first three-quarters of this year, lifting to $US65 a barrel by the end of the year as sharp cuts in capital spending and rising demand weigh on supply………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Shale oil’s investment cycle is shorter and its decline profile sharper than conventional oil production. Current indicators suggest legacy declines from shale will catch up fast with the industry. This points to a sharp deceleration in US shale oil output. But, while conventional oil takes time to slow down, it also takes time to speed up.
It will be shale that is best placed to benefit from any oil price recovery, as Ross McCracken, managing editor of Platts Energy Economist, explains in this month’s selection from the publication. The full analysis can be found in the February 2015 issue, which is also issue 400 of Energy Economist. Global crude oil production has only fallen in six years since 1984 and then generally as a result of geopolitical disruptions to supply or restraint by OPEC, rather than as a reaction to price………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Nowadays, you’ll find plenty of predictions about the future direction of oil prices. But some are worth paying particular attention to. On Monday, Abdullah al-Badri, the Secretary-General of OPEC, said that he expects oil prices to bottom out around current levels. He would know as well as anyone. That said, what makes US$45 per barrel such a logical bottom for oil prices? Is there a risk that prices could fall lower? And how should you react as an investor?
There are reasons to believe the Secretary-General. With such low prices, producers have already been cutting back. According to oil services giant Baker Hughes, the number of oil rigs fell for the seventh straight week, and is now at its lowest level since January 2013………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

If you are a business-news junkie like me, you could hardly miss the trends of the past two months that presumably predict the 2015 economy. Before the holiday season and on into January, retailing was a priority fiscal indicator. Now we have oil production as a runner-up for the most crucial headline of the day.
I already vented my dismay over the emphasis of shopping for deals on Thanksgiving Day and the public’s apparent monthlong need to storm the stores and crowd the Internet right up to Christmas Day in my Jan. 1 column (“Spirit of Christmas centers on malls”). Despite my reaction to commercial exploitation of family traditions, the retailers loved it………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold on Thursday plunged more than $30 an ounce as eurozone troubles fade from headlines and the focus shifts to US fundamentals, the rampant dollar and a likely June rise in interest rates.In heavy trade of more than 22m ounces by lunchtime in New York, gold for delivery in April fell over $35 an ounce or 2.8% from Wednesday’s close hitting a low of $1,251.84 an ounce – the lowest in two weeks and the worst trading day in more than a year.
The metal is still trading up nearly $70 or almost 5.5% in 2015, but is down sharply from an intra-day high of $1,307 hit last week. Gold’s gains this year have been ascribed to safe haven buying amid currency turmoil, a slowing global economy, the continuing fallout of the collapse in oil prices and a crisis in the Eurozone………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Underlying physical demand is starting to pick up in 2015 and will “give the market longer-term ballast” although more headwinds remain before a return to a bull market, analytical company GFMS said Thursday. In conjunction with Thomson Reuters, GFMS said in its Gold Update 2 report that professional investors are absent as the dollar “remains king. Fresh professional investment is unlikely much before there is clarity on the Fed’s timing over rate hikes.”
Continued monetary easing in Europe, Japan and China will support the dollar in the medium term, pointing away from gold investment, “especially as US equities, on an historical multiple at least, are not over-extended.” It also cautioned that recent strength in the gold price, which has been as high as $1,307/oz so far in 2015, has been driven by short-covering, not fresh long positioning………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Russia accounted for about one-third of central banks’ gold purchases last year as the country spent more on the metal than at any time since the break-up of the Soviet Union amid escalating tensions with the west and a collapse in the value of the rouble.
Central banks around the world bought a net 461 tonnes of gold in 2014 — 13 per cent higher than the previous year and the second-highest level since the collapse of the gold standard in 1971 — as they continued to diversify their currency reserves following the financial crisis. They have added 1,800 tonnes to their holdings in the past six years………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Gold futures fell the most in 13 months and silver posted the biggest plunge since June 2013 as signs of a robust U.S. labor market cut demand for haven assets. The two most-traded gold options were bets on further declines, and prices for the contracts doubled. Aggregate futures trading was 79 percent above the 100-day average for this time of day, with silver 70 percent higher, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits in the week ended Jan. 24. Economic activity “has been expanding at a solid pace,” Federal Reserve officials said in a statement on Wednesday………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

The growth rate of China’s consumption of nonferrous metals will dip into the single-digit range in 2015 and is expected to fall further in coming years due to the structural challenges facing the sector, Shaanxi Magnesium Industry Group said Thursday, January 29.
The group in a report said surplus supply in the aluminum and copper segments were among the key challenges. The “wave-style” expansion of consumption seen in recent years has ended and traditional markets have become saturated amid the emergence of new technologies, new products and new industry and commercial modes, the group said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

When you’re ill, it often pays to get a second opinion. For many years now, investors have turned to ‘Doctor Copper’ for an indication as to the health of the global economy. The red metal is used in everything from construction to white goods to kitchenware, and so it’s seen as a pretty accurate indicator of economic health.
But some argue copper’s lost its mojo. According to Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, all the red metal tells us about is the state of some large emerging markets, and, more specifically, China. It may even be in danger of going the way of the Baltic Freight Index – a previous barometer for trade activity based on transportation rates that has fallen out of favor (and was replaced by the Baltic Dry Index)………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Chilean Copper Commission, known as Cochilco, on Thursday revised downward its expectations for the average copper price in 2015, to $2.85 a pound from the $3.00 a pound it forecast in October. Chilean copper production is expected to be 6 million tons this year, down from the 6.23 million tons Cochilco projected in October.
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and each one-cent increase in the price of the red metal represents more than $40 million in additional government revenue………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Exchange-Traded funds (ETFs), already popular among investors big and small, are set to grow dramatically by 2020, a new report has found. Since they emerged as an asset class two decades ago, ETFs, which track stock indices or other baskets of securities and trade like stocks, have been winning investors over.
They offer transparency and lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs hold more than US$2.6 trillion (S$3.5 trillion) of assets globally, and that is set to reach US$5 trillion or more by 2020, the PwC report said………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Commodity exchange traded fund investors may have to hunker down over the short-term, but the commodities market could turn around further out. Over the past year, the GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund which follows an equal-weight methodology that covers 17 commodity positions, has declined 13.9% while the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, which tracks a broad basket of the 14 most heavily traded commodities and uses an optimum yield methodology that tries to limit the negative effects of contango, has decreased 30.5%.
Goldman Sachs remains pessimistic over the commodities outlook for the next three months but believes things could turn around over the next 12 months, the Wall Street Journal reports………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

The Australian dollar plunged against the greenback in the early hours of Friday morning, as central banks around the world move to ease monetary policy against the backdrop of potential US interest rate rises. Shortly after 9am the Aussie is fetching US77.67¢, down from US78.75¢ at Thursday’s local close and US78.86¢ on Thursday morning. It fell as low as US77.20c overnight.
The slide in the Australian dollar was accompanied by falls for the New Zealand dollar and Turkish lira as bets increase that the three nations will be next in line to cut interest rates. The US currency gained versus most major counterparts as the fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits, a day after the Fed raised its assessment of the economy and played down low inflation………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

It’s been a few years since the guns of the international currency wars fell silent, or at least until the main combatants turned most of their attention to other things. With the strength of the dollar, however, the issue might easily re-emerge. If it does, even if the eurozone and Japan are the main initial targets, emerging markets are unlikely to be able to sit out a renewed burst of hostilities.
Certainly the discontents in the US Congress who want to insert enforceable rules against currency manipulation into the Trans-Pacific Partnership have several emerging markets and particularly China in mind, even though China is not currently a TPP member………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Here’s a simple question for Andrew Leigh, Bill Shorten and the ALP: How much will electricity prices rise under your proposed carbon tax? On this page this week, Leigh advocated returning to a carbon tax. Of course it travels under the pseudonym of an emissions trading scheme or a carbon price, but whatever you call it, its purpose is to raise electricity, gas and refrigerant prices, among others.
Call it what you will, Bill, but at its core it’s an electricity tax that hurts business and families. Curiously, neither Bill nor Andrew will tell Australians how much they intend to increase electricity and gas prices, dodging the most important issue for 2015………………………………………..Full Article: Source

Posted on 30 January 2015 by VRS |  Email |Print

Few play the system better than big business. Whether it’s getting the lowest prices from suppliers, convincing us to buy their stuff or keeping the taxman at bay, corporations reign supreme. But what happens when the system starts playing them? Corporate capitalism is getting closer and closer to finding out.
By putting profits first and the planet second (at best), businesses are helping accelerate many of the most concerning “megatrends” of our age. Corporations might not be overly concerned about climate change, resource scarcity, food insecurity and so on today, but you can bet they will be tomorrow when these planetary problems set their profits plummeting………………………………………..Full Article: Source

See more articles in the archive

banner
banner
February 2015
S M T W T F S
« Jan    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728