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Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: The case for emerging market debt in 2017

Thursday, January 12, 2017

amb
David Vavra
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Emerging market (EM) assets outperformed in 2016 mainly because of stronger fundamentals and an improving international environment, with GDP picking up speed, leading to positive earnings revisions for the first time in five years, according to BlackRock. But if there is to be a less friendly environment to international trade, those EM countries that are exposed to the US could suffer, especially those where the US has a deficit.

Yet, some see emerging market debt (EMD) as still an attractive alternative to developed markets.

Emerging market debt outperformed US Treasuries in 2016, reports Goldman Sachs Asset Management. EM sovereign debt did not too bad either, despite declines in the final months, which in part reflected protectionist trade rhetoric and other events. The firm currently sees opportunities in the central American and Caribbean region's external debt, as well as Poland and Mexico's local debt. It is underweight China's external debt and Turkey's local debt.

David Vavra, managing partner at OGResearch, a boutique forecasting and consulting firm, thinks that fix......................

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