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Alternative Market Briefing

Saxo Bank's 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2017

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Saxo Bank, the Copenhagen-headquartered online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has released its annual 'Outrageous Predictions' for the year ahead. The scenarios explore a Chinese growth rebound, an Italian bank rally, Brexit giving way to Bremain, the EU's willingness to change in the face of populist backlash, QE Endless in the US, much higher high-yield default rate, spiraling copper prices, the rise of crypto currencies, an end to the bull healthcare equity market, and a soar of the Mexican peso.

These predictions are not Saxo's official market outlook, but the events and market moves believed to be outliers with huge potentials for upsetting consensus views.

The 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2017 are:

  • 1. China GDP swells to 8% and the SHCOMP hits 5,000  China understands that it has reached the end of the road of its manufacturing and infrastructure growth phase and, through a massive stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, opens up capital markets to successfully steer a transition to consumption-led growth. This results in 8% growth in 2017, with the resurgence owing to the growth in the services sector. Euphoria over private consumption-driven growth sees the Shanghai Composite Index double from its 2016 level, surpassing 5,000.
  • 2. Desperate Fed follows BoJ lead to fix 10-year Treasuries at 1.5%  As US dollar and US interest rates rise in increasingl......................

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