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Matthias Knab, Opalesque: Jonathan Rochford, CFA, Portfolio Manager at Narrow Road Capital, writes on Harvest Exchange:
In the aftermath of the US presidential election Donald Trump’s victory is continuously being called "shocking".The reality is that the result was not a shock at all. The graphic from Real Clear Politics below is their final prediction of where the states would land, published on the day before the election. All Trump needed to do to overcome Clinton’s slender lead was win a few thousand more votes in New Hampshire. Anyone who looked at this graphic alone would have said that the only certainty was a close race.
A reasonable person delving further into the widely available data would also have looked at the early voting patterns. Here Trump was doing better than Romney did in key states. Clinton was leading, but it is widely known that Democrats do better in early voting and Republicans do better on election day. What the early voting also revealed was that polls were oversampling Democrat voters, a point Republican supporters had frequently raised. The response rate to polls had slumped from 20% to 5%, making the potential for error much higher than previous elections. Yet still the polls had narrowed substantially in the weeks leading up to the election. After the release of the infamous Trump video in early October many assumed Trump had no chance. However, after FBI Director James Comey said the Clinton email investigation was being ...................... To view our full article Click here
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