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Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Claritas Investimentos cautiously optimistic about Brazilian economy, equities, real

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

amb
Damont Carvalho
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

A lot has happened in Brazil this year; allegations against dozens of senior politicians linked to the Petrobras scandal, the brief detention of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (also linked to state-oil company Petrobras), street protests, Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment, the Olympics and Paralympics, and Michel Temer becoming interim president. Meanwhile, the Latin American country experienced rising unemployment, weakening currency, GDP contraction and ongoing inflation. But according to some, if the new government does what it set out to do, it might manage to improve both the economy and investor sentiment.

Recent developments

Brazil’s senate voted by 61 to 20 to remove president Dilma Rousseff from office on August 31st. She was charged with tampering with government accounts to conceal the size of the budget deficit. Michel Temer, who had been interim president since May, was sworn in hours later to serve until elections in October 2018.

Temer wants to revive the economy with policies different from Rousseff's, and push for privatisation, deregulation and fiscal discipline.

Since he took charge, the Sao Paulo stock market and the Brazilian Real have strengthened and the cost of insuring government bonds against default has fallen by a quarter, said The Economist.

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