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Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: After the deal, Iran to become star frontier market, may prompt global oversupply of oil

Thursday, July 16, 2015

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Flag of Iran
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Iran and the six world powers (the US, China, Russia, Germany, France and the UK) reached a breakthrough nuclear deal in Vienna on July 14, putting an end to a 12-year standoff between the Islamic Republic and the West. The parties agreed that Iran would significantly curtail its nuclear program for more than a decade in exchange for the lifting of crippling sanctions. The agreement requires ratification by legislative bodies both in the U.S. and Iran.

World’s largest untapped frontier market According to Silk Road Capital, an investment banking group focused on high growth frontier markets, Iran is the world’s largest untapped frontier market.

"The end of Iran’s isolation would mark reintegration of the biggest closed economy into the global economy since the break-up of the Soviet Union in early 90s," Silk Road says in a paper.

"Despite shrinking 20% in the last five years under heavy sanctions, Iran’s economy is still ranked the world’s 18th largest on PPP basis, according to the IMF. With 10% global oil reserves, 18% global gas reserves, strong manufacturing base and educated workforce, Iran has capacity to join the elite club of the world’s 10 largest economies by 2030 (overtaking countries like Italy). The sustained period of high economic growth rates would require Iran to attr......................

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