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Alternative Market Briefing

Fund managers see oil to slide further but warn of global recession if it falls to $30 per barrel

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia:

Financial managers believe that oil prices may further slide this year but warned a decline to $30 per barrel would signal a global recession.

According to the Oil Impact Survey by global brokerage firm Convergex, a majority of the surveyed fund managers overwhelmingly believe that oil prices, as measured by light crude oil (WTI), will continue to fall in 2015, with more than two-thirds (68%) saying they do not believe prices have yet reached a bottom.

Investors expect a rebound before the end of 2015, with 43% predicting a final price per barrel between $40 and less than $60, and 42% predicting a final price between $60 and less than $80. But these figures represent a significant decline from early December, when another Convergex survey found 89% saying oil would end 2015 above $60 (the level at the time of the survey), and nearly half (47%) expected a final price of $80 per barrel or more. The latest survey was conducted between January 13 and 15, 2015.

"In just one month, financial industry professionals have dramatically lowered their expectations for oil prices in 2015," said Nicholas Colas, Convergex chief market strategist. "While investors say that the drop in oil prices has been a net positive thus far, their forecast is less sunny. We have here a clear warning of the......................

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