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Alternative Market Briefing

Oil at $40, Putin to resign, hackers shut down banks: Byron Wien’s ten surprises for 2015

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia:

Byron R. Wien, vice chairman at investment and advisory firm Blackstone Advisory Partners, predicted ten major surprises for 2015 that investors would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but more likely have a 50% likelihood of happening.

Wien predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise short-term interest rates before the middle of the year because of the improving employment data and strong Gross Domestic Product growth. But he said the timing would prove to be faulty as the momentum of the economy has begun to flag and a short-term slowdown has started. The end of monetary accommodation and rising rates precipitate a correction in equities. Long-term Treasury rates stay where they started and the yield curve flattens.

Hackers to cause bank shut downs

"Our luck runs out on cyber terrorism," Wien said. He added that hackers would invade the personal and corporate accounts of a major money center bank and the Federal Reserve orders the institution to suspend transactions for five business days while the accuracy of its balances is verified. "Various government departments and agencies are mobilized to deal with the problem caused by the hackers having proved to be more skillful than our corporate cyber security efforts," he continued.

He added that the year-end rally in ......................

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