Fri, May 26, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

World outlook and risks: Asset manager sees vulnerability in developed countries, IMF lowers forecast

Friday, July 25, 2014

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Vulnerable to shocks Syz & Co, a Swiss bank and asset manager, has just issued its own economic outlook, defining three major risks weighing on the world’s markets.

The first risk would be short term; if economic growth in the U.S. is too strong and inflation accelerates, that would force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy much sooner than expected, bringing volatility to the bond and credit markets, and consequently to the stock market. Today’s market is not ready for that.

The second risk concerns China. Growth of private credit has grown there farther than nominal growth for several years, which means that growth will likely lessen, and that credit is inflating faster than growth. There may be a bursting of the bubble, leading to negative economic performance in China, and eventually in the rest of the world. This would create deflationary shock, as what happened in the 1990s in emerging countries – which were not as big as China. And in those days, developed countries’ central banks had what it takes to combat these exogenous shocks.

Today’s ultra-accommodative monetary policies and low reserves mean that developed countries are vulnerable to such shocks on growth or inflation. This is the main risk that weighs on the markets, according to Syz.

World growth forecast down due to "tempor......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Investing - Tudor Jones backs AI hedge funds, Massive hedge fund trades highlight insider buying: GE, Pentair, Tempur Sealy, Apollo Global and more, Hedge funds big wigs are buying consumer and selling tech, here's the stocks[more]

    Tudor Jones backs AI hedge funds From FT.com: Hedge fund magnate Paul Tudor Jones has invested in a brace of artificial-intelligence powered "quantitative" hedge funds, underscoring the increasing acceptance that the industry will need to turn more to technology and away from traditional

  2. Soon hedge fund investors won't bet on a man, they will bet on a machine[more]

    From Forexlive.com: The Wall Street Journal is in the midst of a 17-part series that looks at the rise of quant funds. The AUM and money invested in quant funds still trails traditional asset managers but the gap is closing. What's truly amazing is volume. Quant funds make up 27% of trading vo

  3. Investing - China's HNA wants to invest in Value Partners, Risk parity investors reap rewards from rebalancing act, SoftBank's $100 billion tech fund rankles VCs as valuations soar[more]

    China's HNA wants to invest in Value Partners From Reuters.com: HNA Group has alighted on a logical, if pricey, target in Hong Kong. The deal-hungry Chinese travel conglomerate known for overpaying wants to invest in Value Partners, one of Asia's few sizeable independent asset managers,

  4. Opalesque Exclusive: Investors warm to ESG, but seek standardization[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Asset managers and asset owners plan to double their investment in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) driven strategies over the next two years, according to a survey from BNP Paribas Securities Services. The report, "Great Expectations: ESG - what's nex

  5. Opalesque Roundtable: France's hidden strengths in AI and machine learning[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: All nations offer their strengths and weaknesses, but one that is undisputed is the quality of the French scientists, claimed Guillaume Vidal, co-founder of French technology startup Walnut Algorithms at the