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Alternative Market Briefing

China expert optimistic about country’s handling of future challenges

Monday, June 16, 2014

amb
Stuart Leckie
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Stuart Leckie is Chairman of Stirling Finance, an independent research and consulting firm based in Hong Kong and the author of books titled "Pension Funds in China" and "Investment Funds in China". He recently talked with Sona Blessing on Opalesque Radio about China’s financial stability and real estate market and said he is optimistic about China’s handling of future challenges.

Property prices and bubbles He does not think China’s stability hinges on increasing property prices. Although the government is concerned that this is going too fast, that there may be some bubble farming in some cities and they have to find a way to gently deflate the bubbles rather than risk a bust.

There are indeed indicators that suggest that increasing real estate prices may no longer be sustainable, but it is difficult to talk about China as a whole, he adds. One the one hand, there are cities like Beijing, Shanghai, etc. with around 20 million people each; on the other hand there are the tiers-two cities, with a population of around 10 million each. Then there are other tiers-three and tiers-four cities that have a population of around a million.

"China’s got a very long term organizational program, where it wants to get people from the countryside to work in the cities," he explains. "So long term, there is going to be a huge demand, a huge need for more housing in......................

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