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Byron Wien predicts correction and new highs in 2014

Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia:

Byron R. Wien, vice chairman at investment and advisory firm Blackstone Advisory Partners has predicted that the worst geopolitical issues, coupled with euphoric extreme would lead to a sharp correction of more than 10% in the global economy in 2014. However, this will be followed with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 will record a 20% total return by year end.

These were part of Wien’s 10 economic, financial market and political surprises that he predicted in 2014. He started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Wien defines a "surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which he believes is "probable," having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

In the U.S., the economy will finally break out of its doldrums and will grow by more than 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering will prove to be a non-event, he said. "The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen," Wien said.

He also described Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as the only world leader who understood that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don’t matter. Abe, he said,......................

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