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Alternative Market Briefing

Prologue Capital maintains cautious optimism going into 2014

Friday, January 03, 2014

Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

In early 2013, Opalesque reported on the cautious optimism thesis advanced in Prologue Capital's outlook for the year. The firm is maintaining that thesis going into this year citing the possibility for continued growth even though inflation remains low. Tomas Jelf, Chief Economist at Prologue Capital, writes that growth over 2013 was globally synchronized which was a pleasant surprise, even if over all growth remains at historical lows.

While growth is happening across most global economies, growth rates are uneven. Jelf writes that the US is poised to be part of the small group of countries that are "above the trend," in terms of overall growth while the the Eurozone and some emerging markets are expected to sputter. "Growth is progressively more resilient in so far that it is spreading. The passage of time has had, and will continue to have, a profound, positive effect on the deleveraging process. Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative, notwithstanding the Federal Reserve decision this month to begin to 'taper’ its bond and MBS purchases. Tail risks have been materially reduced, although not entirely eliminated. Thus, the outlook for the first part of next year is one of continued improvement," he writes.

Over the year, inflationary policy is expected to be the newsmaker shaping centra......................

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