Tue, Sep 1, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

There may be recoupling in 2014

Monday, December 09, 2013

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

According to Julius Baer Group Ltd., an international Swiss private banking group, the global economy will be much more in sync in 2014.

"Just when economists and investors have become used to this type of imbalances and changes in growth patterns (from the recent financial crises), the harbingers of a new era are on their way," says Christian Gattiker, Head of Research in the bank’s latest Insights report. "In fact, the decoupling seems to be increasingly turning into a re-coupling." As indeed the economic growth differences between BRIC countries and the mature economies are shrinking.

In the western economies, a lot of healing has taken place of late, while in many of the emerging markets, the business model is resulting in unsustainable current account deficits.

Julius Baer’s outlook is that the USA, Europe and Japan will grow by 1% to 2.5%, while the emerging world should grow 'merely’ at mid- single-digit rates on average.

But some of the imbalances will need correcting; this may be disruptive, and economies that have current account imbalances may see currency crises, Gattiker notes.

The U.S., Europe and Japan’s monetary policies may not give rise to inflation, after all, due to overcapacity. "Out of 21 major economies (mature and emerging) we do not see any one of them currently running at their potential growth rate," the repo......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Investing - Hedge funds suddenly find real money is back in Argentina's debt, Elon Musk buys more SolarCity stock following hedge fund manager short, BlackRock plans to get into rental-home financing[more]

    Hedge funds suddenly find real money is back in Argentina's debt From Bloomberg.com: The real money is back in Argentina. Before the country’s default in July 2014 (its second in 13 years), most long-term investors abandoned its bond market. As they rushed out, Argentina became a favorit

  2. Activist News - Carl Icahn has snapped up a huge stake in Freeport-McMoRan, and the stock is ripping, Meet Europe's best activist investor[more]

    Carl Icahn has snapped up a huge stake in Freeport-McMoRan, and the stock is ripping From Businessinsider.com: Carl Icahn has picked his next target: Freeport-McMoRan. Icahn and a group of other investors have snapped up an 8.46% stake in mining company Freeport-McMoRan, according to a j

  3. North America - Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s challenge to the Fed[more]

    From Newyorker.com: For some reason, Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, decided to skip this year’s annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, where monetary policymakers from the United States and abroad get together with some prominent academics to discuss the big issues of the moment. Th

  4. Opalesque Exclusive: Credit-focused hedge fund Numen Capital expects more volatility in Europe in coming months[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: A London-based hedge fund, which has just hired two emerging managers, is cautious on Europe. Vassilis Paschopoulos and former Lehman’s colleague Nikos Kargadouris, launched a London-based credit-focused hedge fund called

  5. Performance - Hedge funds bruised by stocks’ meltdown, Capstone’s volatility hedge fund is having a monster month thanks to market mayhem[more]

    Hedge funds bruised by stocks’ meltdown From WSJ.com: Hedge-fund managers like to promise their investors protection from market swings. In the recent stock swoon, many were caught off guard. Billionaire managers such as Leon Cooperman, Raymond Dalio and Daniel Loeb are deeply in the red

 

banner