Fri, Jun 23, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

There may be recoupling in 2014

Monday, December 09, 2013

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

According to Julius Baer Group Ltd., an international Swiss private banking group, the global economy will be much more in sync in 2014.

"Just when economists and investors have become used to this type of imbalances and changes in growth patterns (from the recent financial crises), the harbingers of a new era are on their way," says Christian Gattiker, Head of Research in the bank’s latest Insights report. "In fact, the decoupling seems to be increasingly turning into a re-coupling." As indeed the economic growth differences between BRIC countries and the mature economies are shrinking.

In the western economies, a lot of healing has taken place of late, while in many of the emerging markets, the business model is resulting in unsustainable current account deficits.

Julius Baer’s outlook is that the USA, Europe and Japan will grow by 1% to 2.5%, while the emerging world should grow 'merely’ at mid- single-digit rates on average.

But some of the imbalances will need correcting; this may be disruptive, and economies that have current account imbalances may see currency crises, Gattiker notes.

The U.S., Europe and Japan’s monetary policies may not give rise to inflation, after all, due to overcapacity. "Out of 21 major economies (mature and emerging) we do not see any one of them currently running at their potential growth rate," the repo......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Comment: For emerging market debt, a sustainable recovery[more]

    Matthias Knab, Opalesque: Standish Mellon Asset Management Company writes on Harvest Exchange: After several difficult years, the outlook for emerging market debt (EMD) denomin

  2. J.P. Morgan Global Alternatives raises distressed shipping fund[more]

    From Institutionalinvestor.com: J.P. Morgan Global Alternatives has closed a $480 million fund to invest in distressed shipping assets, attracting capital from pensions, endowments and insurance companies. The firm, which has been investing in maritime for more than a decade, initially targeted $400

  3. FinTech - Rise of robots: Inside the world's fastest growing hedge funds[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Believe the hype. Quants have never been more popular. After doubling over the past decade, assets run by so-called systematic funds have hit a record $500 billion this year, according to estimates from Barclays Plc. In some ways, their meteoric rise is due to the same technolog

  4. Legal - Bond market concerns could scuttle Paulson's Fannie-Freddie plan[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: A hedge fund proposal for freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from U.S. control is poised to face stiff opposition from investors who say it risks wrecking the mortgage-bond market. The Moelis & Co. blueprint, which firms including Paulson & Co. and Blackstone Group LP sponsored,

  5. Other Voices: Are your pricing policies and procedures for less liquid instruments adequate?[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The unrelated position mismarking incidents that quickly precipitated the closures of both Visium Asset Management and Marinus Capital have been recent focal points for market participants, but regulatory scrutiny of valuation choices for less liquid instruments is