Thu, Nov 27, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

Stock markets are celebrating victory too early

Friday, December 06, 2013

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

According to SEB, a Nordic financial services group, stock markets are celebrating victory too early.

"World economic growth is poised to accelerate, but this will happen slowly and right now market hopes are ahead of the evidence in many cases," says the group’s recent investment outlook report.

"The stock market is often said to be an economic indicator that is 6-8 months ahead of the real economy. If, for a moment, we allow the real economy to be represented by company earnings forecasts, it appears the latter are largely standing still while share prices rise. For sceptics, this is a bit too exciting; the market has ended up in a limbo, where hopes are expressed in share price movements and real economic developments in terms of earnings. For good reasons, this gap can make many people nervous," says Ann Grevelius, Global Head of Investment Strategy at SEB.

As for emerging markets, SEB notes on a breaking down of the BRIC concept, with only the "C" getting ahead. Hans Peterson, Global Head of Asset Allocation at SEB comments that emerging markets are in a more mature phase, and that we should not expect the same rapid expansion that was seen in the late 90s.

"We can no longer speak of EM countries as one unit. Instead, each country and its currency and stock market must be ev......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Investing - George Soros puts $500m of his money on Bill Gross, Soros, Paulson backed Hispania Activos mulls Realia takeover, Ex-Credit Suisse trader’s hedge fund sees yen shorts as crowded, Hedge hunters double default-swaps as views split, Large hedge fund positions come under pressure, Vikram Pandit's fund picks 50% stake in JM Financial's realty lending arm for $87m[more]

    George Soros puts $500m of his money on Bill Gross From WSJ.com: Before Bill Gross was fully settled in at his new firm, Janus Capital Group Inc., he received an unlikely visit from the chief investment officer of famed investor George Soros ’s firm, according to a person familiar with t

  2. Unlucky Paulson & Co. rebrands $1.6bn Recovery Fund after 13% drop[more]

    From Businessweek.com: A maturing U.S. economic recovery is prompting Paulson & Co. to change course. The $19 billion hedge fund firm, led by billionaire John Paulson, told investors on a conference call this month that the Paulson Recovery Fund will be renamed Paulson Special Situations Fund on Jan

  3. Europe - Hedge funds face exit tax as Iceland central bank discusses plan[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Hedge funds and other creditors with claims against Iceland’s failed banks face an exit tax as the island looks for ways to unwind capital controls without hurting the economy. The government targets having a plan it can present by year-end that would map out how Iceland will sca

  4. Opalesque Exclusive: Risk management emerges as a competitive focus area for hedge funds[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Risk management has always been a core component of any trading strategy, as well as a critical part of business management. However, as macreconomic weakness persists, and alpha becomes increasingly hard to generate, risk management as emerged as a more promin

  5. Gross: Inflation is required to pay for prior inflation[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: As inflation rises, every dollar will buy a smaller percentage of a good. While deflation will mean a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. These two economic conditions are both in the waiting room. The consensus would like the former to