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Alternative Market Briefing

SYZ AM expects high liquidity and low interest rates 'for a long time to come’

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

According to SYZ Asset Management’s outlook for 2014, the general feeling left by the economy and the markets is "somewhat ambivalent." Growth in both developed and developing economies may not be as strong as in recent decades and on the other hand, monetary policies, that may remain accommodative for some time to avoid deflation, will support the equity markets.

The U.S. will likely retain its monetary policy for along while "owing to the structural problems that are today weakening U.S. growth."

The recent government shutdown has not impacted the economy much, but confidence is not as high due to budgetary uncertainty. The raising of the debt ceiling, expected in February 2014, may further affect confidence among households and SMEs. Furthermore, low productivity levels and a stagnating working population my cause the U.S. economy’s growth potential to be between 1.5% and 2%.

"Thus, while growth will probably be higher in 2014 than in 2013 in the United States due to a less marked impact of budgetary policy tightening, it will be difficult for it to accelerate suddenly given the fundamentals," the report notes.

In Europe, the ECB eased its monetary policy to meet its 2% inflation target, and "its recent decision raises the question of whether it is not now reacting too late to stop the sc......................

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