Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:
According to Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), one of Switzerland’s leading private banks (with CHF81.1bn ($85.7bn) in AuM), the world economy’s wounds are healing. The bank’s economists see for 2014 continued speed-up in growth, a stronger G7 recovery and dovishness from the central banks.
"The market cycle should enter a more mature stage under the impetus of brisker world trade and, above all, a rebound in corporate capital expenditure," UBP’s release notes. "This will restore developed countries to their full growth potential and continue to heal the scars of the 2008 crisis."
Patrice Gautry, UBP’s Chief Economist, foresees that "rather than going back to how it was in 2006-2007, the market is more likely start a new, more lasting growth cycle, driven by the corporate world and its investments".
Developed countries will fare better, with the US intensifying the pace. Emerging countries will have to rebalance their investment-dependent economies through increased consumption and better competitiveness. Central banks can help in the recovery, UBP note, but should not withdraw their support too soon.
"Monetary policy will have a major role to play in this return to growth, even though words and actions will vary considerably from one central bank to the other", adds Mr Gautry.
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