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Alternative Market Briefing

Analysing the Great Rotation, Part 4

Monday, November 18, 2013

Francesco Filia
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

This series of articles explores the concept of the Great Rotation, which was anticipated to be one of 2013’s themes. Here we look at the concept in greater depth and its actual reality in time and place.

Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3 were published last week.

A rotation of ownership

Earlier this month, J.P. Morgan’s global fixed income research team came out with its own perspective of the Great Rotation in a piece called "Great Rotation: Myth or Reality?" In short, the authors believe that while retail investors are moving into equities and short duration fixed income, much of the inflows into equities will come from cash. Meanwhile, institutions are moving into bonds for various reasons, although not necessarily in the same rhythm as retail’s rotation. Furthermore, the Great Rotation has chiefly been a U.S. phenomenon so far.

"The Fed’s decision to defer tapering on September 18 was met with an almost 40bp decline in U.S. Treasury yields back to 2.6% and record $236bn new issuance from U.S. and EM credit marke......................

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