Sun, Apr 23, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: The stage is set for an emerging market crisis

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

amb
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

An Opalesque column for global macro investors.

The U.S. Fed recently announced a forthcoming tapering of QE, which coincided with money leaving emerging market (EM) investments. EM currencies have been battered, bond issues have lowered, and equities have lost value.

Vijai Mohan, founder of San Francisco-based Hyphen Fund Management LLC and portfolio manager of the fund Hyphen Partners L.P., a long/short equity hedge fund, told Opalesque at the end of last year that the fund was generally positioned along two lines; long developed markets and heavily short emerging markets. He believed an EM crisis was imminent.

Investors are pulling out of EM stock and bond markets for the first time in 9 years

How much closer are we to an emerging market crisis? According to Vijai Mohan, it has already started.

The four triggers for an EM crisis are, according to Mohan:

(1) A deterioration of the terms of trade of debtor countries (Deteriorated steadily since early 2009) (2) A recession in the core countries that were the providers of capital (Started with the 2011 Eurozone crisis) (3) A rise in international borrowing costs driven by events in creditor countries, such as tighter monetary policy (2013 Fed "Tapering") ......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Carden Capital bets on volatility[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York for New Managers: Machine driven strategies are having a bit of a moment in the hedge fund world right now. Systematic funds have outperformed other strategies at a time when all ey

  2. Sprott AM to sell Canadian diversified fund business to management-led group[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Toronto-based asset management company Sprott Asset Management LP (SAM) has entered into an agreement to sell its Canadian diversified fund business to a management-led group. Under the deal, the new group will have

  3. Investing - These hedge funds (and Madeleine Albright) are betting on a debt crisis, Hedge funds are upping their bets on the death of the traditional retailer, $20bn hedge fund recaps Corizon[more]

    These hedge funds (and Madeleine Albright) are betting on a debt crisis From Yahoo.com: There could be a big debt crisis brewing in places like China, India, Latin America and Africa -- and a growing number of investors are amassing war chests to cash in on the distress. Albright Capital

  4. Universities looking to defend endowments from Republican tax plan[more]

    From PIOnline.com: Some of the richest U.S. colleges are pushing back against scrutiny by Congress over the tax-exempt status of university endowments. Lobbying disclosure forms show almost two dozen schools such as Princeton University, University of Notre Dame and Cornell University are including

  5. Activist News - GAM touts 'tangible results' of turnaround as activist fight hots up, Bill Ackman not done with Herbalife, says his fight could get legs in May, Activist hedge fund CIAM says Euro Disney's buyout offer not fair for minority investors[more]

    GAM touts 'tangible results' of turnaround as activist fight hots up From FNLondon.com: GAM, the Swiss asset manager at the center of an attempted boardroom putsch by activist hedge fund RBR Capital, said its first-quarter results amounted to "tangible" proof that its management's plan f