Tue, Jan 27, 2015
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: The stage is set for an emerging market crisis

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

amb
Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

An Opalesque column for global macro investors.

The U.S. Fed recently announced a forthcoming tapering of QE, which coincided with money leaving emerging market (EM) investments. EM currencies have been battered, bond issues have lowered, and equities have lost value.

Vijai Mohan, founder of San Francisco-based Hyphen Fund Management LLC and portfolio manager of the fund Hyphen Partners L.P., a long/short equity hedge fund, told Opalesque at the end of last year that the fund was generally positioned along two lines; long developed markets and heavily short emerging markets. He believed an EM crisis was imminent.

Investors are pulling out of EM stock and bond markets for the first time in 9 years

How much closer are we to an emerging market crisis? According to Vijai Mohan, it has already started.

The four triggers for an EM crisis are, according to Mohan:

(1) A deterioration of the terms of trade of debtor countries (Deteriorated steadily since early 2009) (2) A recession in the core countries that were the providers of capital (Started with the 2011 Eurozone crisis) (3) A rise in international borrowing costs driven by events in creditor countries, such as tighter monetary policy (2013 Fed "Tapering") ......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Investing - U.S. investors favor currency hedged Europe ETFs as euro tumbles, Quants win back investors as Swiss franc fuels volatility gains, David Einhorn's $7bn hedge fund is loading up on this stock, Hedge fund BlueMountain Capital unveils Ocwen Financial short, claims default on notes[more]

    U.S. investors favor currency hedged Europe ETFs as euro tumbles From Reuters.com: U.S. investors stung by the falling euro who want to stay invested in Europe are turning to exchange-traded funds designed to strip out the impact of the region's currency. The biggest among so-called "cur

  2. News Briefs - Millennials use tech tools to jump into investing, Winklevoss twins to launch bitcoin exchange with FDIC insured deposits, Robertson’s legacy from hedge funds to New Zealand, Real estate managers exploring smaller open-end funds[more]

    Millennials use tech tools to jump into investing It is the Facebookification of monetary investing. From social networking platforms that enable young investors to stick to every other's stock-picking mojo, to internet sites for initially-timers hungry for a piece of the Silicon Valley

  3. Top performing private equity firms you should invest in[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Professor Oliver Gottschalg of Paris-based HEC Business School, also known as Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Paris has released his annual ranking of the top performing private equity firms. The 2014 HEC-DowJones Private Equity Performance Ranking

  4. Comment - Why invest in hedge funds if they don't outperform the market?[more]

    From Forbes.com: Hedge funds have always been a bit exotic and an enigma to some, but bottom line they are supposed to produce good returns using a range of strategies including global macro, event driven and relative value (arbitrage). And, sophisticated or high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) could

  5. Owen Li 'truly sorry' for blowing up $100m of hedge fund’s assets[more]

    From CNBC.com: A hedge fund manager told clients he is "truly sorry" for losing virtually all their money. Owen Li, the founder of Canarsie Capital in New York, said Tuesday he had lost all but $200,000 of the firm's capital—down from the roughly $100 million it ran as of late March. "I take r