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SEB: US holds the key to economic recovery in 2014-15

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Global acceleration in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be easier in the next couple of years, thanks to weaker fiscal headwinds and stronger monetary policy tailwinds, says SEB in its latest Outlook report. SEB is a leading Nordic financial services group.

The group expects the US to achieve an annual growth of around 3.5% in 2014-2015, the Eurozone a "sluggish" growth of 0.8% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015 (compared to -0.5% so far this year), and the OECD’s 34 countries to go from 1.2% this year to 2.4% next year and 2.8% in 2015. "Yet major cyclical differences in growth between countries and regions will persist, posing challenges to international economic policy cooperation," the report says.

SEB assumes that inflation will remain low and stable and that "the low interest rate policies of central banks will be underpinned by macroprudential policies," hence the positive scenario.

The group believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise its key interest rate until the second half of 2015. It will decide, as the economic and financial outlook is more positive, to begin tapering its QE programme as early as next month. The Bank of England is expected to keep its interest rate at 0.50% for the next two years, while the European Central Bank may cut its own key interest rate to 0.25% at the end of this year and remain at this level for two years. As for the Bank ......................

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