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Alternative Market Briefing

Prologue Capital remains cautiously optimistic about the year

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

Prologue Capital, a London and Connecticut based, hedge fund focused on global macro sees a variety of cautiously positive trends in the US and global economies according to their most recent economic outlook, obtained by Opalesque. The fund has approximately $2bn in assets under management, and notes that while the economic factors they consider have changed many times so far this year, there is still hope.

In the letter, Thomas Jelf, Prologue's chief economist takes on the big themes defining markets right now. "As soon as one headwind appears to abate, e.g. fiscal retrenchment in the United States, another emerges, e.g. slowdown in emerging markets. But the fact remains that the global economy is digging itself out of the hole created by the great financial crisis and the subsequent Eurozone crisis, albeit at a slow and uneven pace," he writes.

Overall, he sees this recovery primarily benefitting developed economies, at the expense of emerging markets and parts of Europe that are slipping further into recession. Yet, even amid these positive indicators, some uncertainty remains. Specifically, Jelf cites monetary policy concerns as the strategies put in place by central banks to reduce uncertainty have actually led to new concerns. He expects that monetary policy will remain accommodative at the big three central banks - US, EU and Japan, although public comments made by Fed leaders and staffing changes are likely to m......................

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