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Saxo Bank reflects on Cyprus situation from macro, fx and commodity standpoint

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Beverly Chandler, Opalesque London: Mads Koefoed, head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank, writes that the situation in Cyprus has stolen the headlines, while Ireland and Portugal who have achieved extensions on maturities, have slipped below the radar.

Koefoed writes: "However, as everybody scrambles to form an opinion about Cyprus, news during the weekend regarding two other euro members slipped below the radar. Ireland and Portugal, which applied for bailouts in November 2010 and April 2011, respectively, have been among the most vigorous reformists. In return, the market has priced the two countries' yields lower with the Irish 10-year at 4.14% while the Portuguese equivalent stands at 6.16%. This should be compared to peaks of 14.1% and 18.3%, respectively. Now the reformist efforts are also paying dividends from their euro area finance colleagues."

The Troika consisting of the IMF, ECB, and EU will sort out the details but the euro area finance ministers approved a plan to extend the maturities on the emergency loans to both countries in a bid to ease the redemption profile as both countries try to achieve (full) market access.

"Ireland, unlike the southern peripheral countries, was quick to implement tough reforms, which are now paying off. Not only has Ireland successfully returned to the markets, selling 10-year bonds worth 5bn euros as late as last Thursday, but the economy is also among the better perf......................

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