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Alternative Market Briefing

Prologue Capital cautious on the great rotation, sees positive signs in US economy

Friday, March 01, 2013

amb
Tomas Jelf
Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

Prologue Capital, a London and Connecticut based, hedge fund focused on global macro sees a variety of cautiously positive trends in the US and global economies according to their most recent investor letter, obtained by Opalesque. The fund has approximately $2bn AUM. In the letter, Tomas Jelf, Chief Economist at Prologue Capital, notes that the US is leading the recovery out of the 2008 financial crisis and the housing sector is starting to show signs of strength that they expect to last for years to come.

Jelf notes that the 'great rotation' thesis advanced by some market participants may still be a bit early. He highlights recent reports from Credit Suisse showing that inflows continue into both bonds and equities, bolstered by the burgeoning growth trend. However, there are some clouds on the horizon, the high rates of unemployment, global economic deflation, and flare ups in the EU and Middle East could happen again.

In the letter, Jelf writes that the end of the payroll tax holiday and budget austerity in the US are likely to add a 1% drag on GDP. Jelf's feelings largely track other managers looking at macroeconomic factors as part of their investment strategy. In our recent Opalesque TV conversation with Patrick Wolff of Grandmaster Capital, he also sees the rise of 'fortress USA&......................

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