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Alternative Market Briefing

Amundi Asset Management predicts possible end of the debt crisis in pivotal year ahead

Monday, January 14, 2013

Beverly Chandler, Opalesque London: Editor Philippe Ithurbide of Amundi Asset Management has predicted likely scenarios and allocations which lie ahead in 2013 in his Cross Asset Investment Strategy: 2013 and beyond.

Key points in his summary include:

  • 2013 will be a pivotal year and not merely one of transition: it will determine future trends and perhaps bring the debt crisis to an end. We will find out whether 2012's resilient markets were based on sustainable progress or extreme complacency toward the solutions offered by the European sovereigns. Admittedly, every deficit and debt problem will not be resolved in the coming months. We do not expect an end to the problems, just an end to the crisis. That would already be a major step forward and something to be happy about.

  • 2013: Global economy still under fiscal constraint but with less financial stress. Due to the constraining effect of deleveraging in developed countries, the global economy will not return to pre-crisis expansion rates in 2013. Nonetheless, we believe that global growth will accelerate in 2013 (from +3.0% to +3.5%) thanks to a more favourable financial environment for economic activity (especially in Europe). Against this backdrop, the United States should post a growth rate of just over 2%, while Europe will probably see its GDP stagnate. Japan will likely post sluggish growth, and the emerging countries ......................

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