Sat, Aug 2, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

The Big Picture: Demographic shifts should shape global macro strategies

Friday, December 14, 2012

amb
Thomas P. Signer
An Opalesque column for macro investors.

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

Thomas P. Signer, financial advisor at VALUEworks AG, an independent multi-family office based in Zurich, believes that demography explains everything, including asset returns. So investors should try to take advantage of current and future demographic shifts and translate them into investment returns.

Signer also teaches and authored a couple of books, namely "The Harder They Fall: Will the US follow Japan in the Abyss?" (2004), and more recently, "The US and Japan: Twins in Denial (It’s demographics, stupid!)" (2011).

Tremendous demographic development

The number of people worldwide from year 1700 to present days went from under 1 billion to 7 billion, he said during Terrapinn’s Hedge Funds World conference in Zurich last month. The number is expected to go up to 8 billion in 2024 and reach 9 billion in 2048.

The dependency ratios are also going up. In 1950, 39% of the population was dependent (34% of the people were under 15-year old and 5% over 65-year old). In 2010, nearly 35% of the population was dependent (27% under 15 and 8% over 65). In 2050, it is expected to be 37%, with much less children and twice as many elderly people as in 2010 (21% under 15 a......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing
  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Kyria Capital Management bets on women hedge fund managers[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: As hedge fund assets top $3 trillion, and long/short strategies get more crowded than ever, with every manager hunting for even the tiniest bit of alpha, a new firm has emerged that claims its own edge – women. A recent Rothstein Kass study showed women-owned a

  2. Opalesque Exclusive: Q2, H1 end positively for hedge fund performance[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: New hedge fund monitor data from Citi Prime Finance shows that overall, hedge funds ended the month of June and the first half of the year positively. Composite hedge fund performance, equal-weighted across funds, ranged from +0.93% to +1.73%. June-14 performa

  3. Many CTAs have become more short-volatility in the last five years[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Quantitative easing has reduced and then suppressed volatility for the last five years. So analysts at R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management recently examined if there had been a tendency for CTAs and hedge funds to adjust their styles to become more 'shor

  4. Other Voices: Event driven strategy outlook: Broader focus required[more]

    This article was authored by Alex Gavrish, founder and CEO of Etalon Investment Research, and author of "Wall Street Back To Basics."

  5. Other Voices: Not so easy to replicate activist hedge funds and achieve similar performance[more]

    This article was authored by Alex Gavrish, founder and CEO of Etalon Investment Research, and author of "Wall Street Back To Basics." With the amount of activist investments on the rise during the last few years, more and more media at