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Alternative Market Briefing

Political and violent risk analysis can add value to trading decisions

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

Effectively measuring the possibility of political and/or violent risk in a given country can be beneficial to trading decisions according to Brian Lawson, Chief Global Economist at Exclusive Analysis. Lawson has had a 30-year career in investment banking, and is currently focused on studying risk factors such as political and violent risk. He recently spoke with Sona Blessing about these risk factors in an interview for Opalesque Radio.

Exclusive Analysis is a global specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially political and violent risks worldwide.

According to Lawson, when it comes to assessing political risk a variety of factors are considered in assembling a given country’s risk profile – "we look at political instability, bribery and corruption, contract frustration, taxation, and currency risk." Each of these factors are scored, and then compared against other countries in order to establish a final political risk score.

A given political risk score and its components can provide early insight into potential upheaval. Lawson notes that his firm was able to see several potential trigger points which eventually played out as part of the Arab Spring early on. "We were very early in respect to Egypt, and Libya. We predicted the possibility of civil war in Syria," he says. While the firm could not know which of......................

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