Thu, Apr 17, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

Political and violent risk analysis can add value to trading decisions

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York:

Effectively measuring the possibility of political and/or violent risk in a given country can be beneficial to trading decisions according to Brian Lawson, Chief Global Economist at Exclusive Analysis. Lawson has had a 30-year career in investment banking, and is currently focused on studying risk factors such as political and violent risk. He recently spoke with Sona Blessing about these risk factors in an interview for Opalesque Radio.

Exclusive Analysis is a global specialist intelligence company that forecasts commercially political and violent risks worldwide.

According to Lawson, when it comes to assessing political risk a variety of factors are considered in assembling a given country’s risk profile – "we look at political instability, bribery and corruption, contract frustration, taxation, and currency risk." Each of these factors are scored, and then compared against other countries in order to establish a final political risk score.

A given political risk score and its components can provide early insight into potential upheaval. Lawson notes that his firm was able to see several potential trigger points which eventually played out as part of the Arab Spring early on. "We were very early in respect to Egypt, and Libya. We predicted the possibility of civil war in Syria," he says. While the firm could not know which of......................

To view our full article Click here

Banner
Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing
  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: European stock-picking fund up 19% YTD, bets on small caps’ high cash level[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva for New Managers: Here is a European long/short equity fund that has been beating the odds since its 2008 inception by employing its own investment model, frequent company visits

  2. CTAs could face new challenges in a rising rates environment[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: CTAs have taken a beating performance wise lately, and asset flows reports show that investors aren't sticking around to see how the movie ends. Now, a new white paper from Roy Niederhoffer and Coen Weddepohl notes that as interest rates start to tick back u

  3. Investing – Big hedge funds bought Puerto Rico's junk bonds, Fidelity explores new trading venue amid flash trade concerns, Crisis-era Greek bonds reward early buyers with big effective returns, Cargill unit discloses stake in Freddie preferred[more]

    Big hedge funds bought Puerto Rico's junk bonds From Reuters.com: Several large hedge funds doubled down on Puerto Rico in last month's giant bond sale despite the U.S. territory's financial struggles, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing confidential documents reviewed by the newspa

  4. Opalesque TV: First Trust Advisors launches liquid alternatives platform[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: First Trust Advisors is launching a new liquid alternatives platform aimed at building on the companies existing alternative ETFs offering by adding hedged mutual funds. Senior Portfolio Managers Rob Guttschow and John Gambla recently sat down in an

  5. Commodities – Popular value fund manager David Iben bets on Russia, gold,[more]

    From Reuters.com: With large bets on Russia and North American gold miners, one of the best performing stock pickers in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis is back with a new fund that reflects his deep aversion to following the crowd. In the Kopernik Global All-Cap Fund, David Iben is follo