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Alternative Market Briefing

Current difficulties in currency trading are due to change in drivers

Monday, November 12, 2012

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva:

The difficulties of currency trading, the opportunities found in emerging market currencies and the future of the euro as a currency were discussed with the audience at the end of the recent Opalesque Managed Futures Roundtable.

The BarclayHedge Currency Traders Index is down 0.13% (est.) in October 2012, and up 0.88% YTD. It was up 2.34% in 2011.

Why currency trading has been so difficult

When asked why currency trading has been so difficult and has had low returns over the last few years, Kevin Murphy, co-founder of Axiom Investment Advisors, LLC a firm based in Aspen, CO, that specializes in trading the G10 currencies, said it was a change in the drivers that changed the degree to which and the timeframe over which momentum carries itself out.

"It is about the changing frequency in which things have been taking place," he explained. "We have always felt that there was a mixture of momentum and, for lack of a better term, mean reversion. The market overreacts in some cases and under-reacts in others. What happened is, the mixture of those two things changed a lot as governments go......................

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