The fear of sliding from a continued, slow, recovery to the double dip of another recession has been a concern ever since the markets began to strengthen in March 2009.
Large firms such as BlackRock continue to express a (conservative) positive outlook even as they acknowledge high levels of uncertainty. “We continue to believe that a variety of structural headwinds will place limits on economic growth prospects, although we view a “double dip” recession scenario as a lower probability outcome,” says Bob Doll in his Q3 outlook.
The Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index shows that hedge fund performance strength seen from May 2009 through March 2010 has entered a second drawdown phase. Hedge funds saw a decline of -19.5% (against the Dow Jones Global Index drawdown of -53%) during the previous drawdown, and have currently lost -3.9% from their peak recovery (against the Dow Jones Global Index drawdown of -31.9%).