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Alternative Market Briefing

Ed Rogers sees a much brighter year for Japan, Euro as unsustainable

Monday, December 28, 2009

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From the Opalesque team:

Ed Rogers, principal of Tokyo-based Rogers Investment Advisors, stated in his end-of-year commentary that that period had been a very challenging time for investors, quoting macro events such as the threatened default of Dubai, and that BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) had been replaced with concern over PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Greece, Spain) which are some of the more likely candidates for Sovereign default.

Rogers believes that the Euro currency is unsustainable as some of the countries within the Euro area, the PIIGS and others, may soon be faced with dropping out of the Euro currency because of their inability to meet Euro standards, or the Euro standards will have to change.

The continued threat of Sovereign default from one or more PIIGS, the coming disasters in the US commercial real estate space, US unemployment at 10% for an extended period of time; all of these possible, if not probable, outcomes will fuel market volatility in 2010 according to Rogers.

Equally probable, he said, is the fact that Japan suffers from none of these woes in 2010. Over 90% of Japanese government debt is in local hands, the Japanese real estate bubble burst 20 years ago, and unemployment is only 5.6% (even after many years of restructuring, but also helped by the declining population of Japan) all make Japan look like a market that has bottomed.

Rogers feels more and more strongly that 2010 will be Japan’s turn to shine.

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