Thu, Sep 29, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbřl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Nobel Sustainability Trust, Prince Albert II of Monaco help launch major new initiative to drive sustainable technologies[more]

    Matthias Knab, Opalesque: The Nobel Sustainability® Trust ("NST") is leading a major new initiative to finance, incubate and accelerate the development of clean technologies. The initiative will start with the formation of the Nobel Sustainability Fund® ("NSF"). NSF will drive faster access t

  2. Studies - Hedge funds’ study reveals vast disparity in types of investors securing side letter arrangements, Cambridge: Look to private investments for best access to LatAm growth[more]

    Hedge funds’ study reveals vast disparity in types of investors securing side letter arrangements A new study of the hedge fund space by industry law firm Seward & Kissel LLP reveals a wealth of information regarding established hedge fund managers’ use of side letters—special agreements

  3. Activist News - Caesars 'optimistic' on deal with hedge fund creditors[more]

    From Reuters.com: Caesars Entertainment Corp said on Monday it remains "optimistic" of reaching a $5 billion deal with the bulk of its creditors to push its main operating unit out of bankruptcy, but one hedge fund bondholder said it will pursue litigation. Caesars offered a sweetened $5 billion set

  4. Hedge funds recover from losses as central banks give markets a respite[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: The Lyxor Hedge Fund index was up 0.4% from the week ending September 20 (-2.4% YTD), supported by the willingness of central banks to remain accommodative, Lyxor Asset Management said in its weekly briefing. It ad

  5. Perry Capital closing flagship fund after almost three decades[more]

    From Blooomberg.com: Richard Perry, one of the biggest names in hedge funds, is calling it quits after 28 years. Perry, 61, is winding down his New York-based flagship fund as the industry confronts one of the most tumultuous periods in its history. In a letter to investors Monday, he said his style