Wed, Oct 26, 2016
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbřl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. North America - Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass says the U.S. is on track for stagflation, Billionaire hedge fund titans Dinan, Lasry on election, markets and best investment ideas[more]

    Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass says the U.S. is on track for stagflation From Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, on Wednesday warned that the U.S. is headed toward so-called stagflation. Stagflation is typically described as persistently high inflation and hi

  2. David Einhorn speaks on passive investing, Mylan, his cheapest stock, the Fed[more]

    From Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn (Trades, Portfolio) joined nine other famed investors on Tuesday to talk about stocks at the annual Great Investors’ Best Ideas Investment Symposium in Dallas. Presenters at the annual conference typically pitch one or severa

  3. Investing - Fund set up to buy illiquid hedge fund stakes finds plenty of opportunities, Lansdowne's Roden says likes animal genetics company Genus[more]

    Fund set up to buy illiquid hedge fund stakes finds plenty of opportunities From As ValueWalk reported back in February, earlier this year Andrew Lawrence set out to raise $250 million to $500 million for a fund that will buy stakes in hedge funds that have suspended redem

  4. Other Voices: Follow the advice of investment consultants - I think not[more]

    Mark Rzepczynski, Founding Partner, Chief Investment Officer AMPHI Research and Trading, writes on Harvest Exchange: Investment consultants are a force to the reckoned with in the pension world. They advise and drive many pension decisions around the globe. Consultants literally control trillion

  5. Opalesque Roundtable: Style drift, poor communications and credibility fatigue are biggest red flags for hedge funds investors[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Style drift, poor communications and credibility fatigue are the biggest red flags for hedge funds investors, said participants of the latest 2016 Opalesque Investor Roundtable, sponso