Sat, Oct 25, 2014
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbřl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Banner

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Commodities - Oil wreaking havoc on small-cap energy stocks sliding 36%[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Owning almost anything in the U.S. stock market has been a losing proposition since September. Owning smaller energy companies has been a catastrophe. Hercules Offshore Inc. and Resolute Energy Corp. are among 19 oil-and-gas equities in the Russell 2000 Index that lost more than

  2. Investing - Hedge funds favor equity long/short, Strategic bond managers hedge against further high yield sell-off[more]

    Hedge funds favor equity long/short From Securitieslendingtimes.com: Equity long/short strategies will generate good returns for hedge funds in the future, according to a panel at this year’s Risk Management Association Conference on Securities Lending in Naples, Florida. Panellists Sand

  3. Legal - Ex-hedge fund analyst weeps as judge hands down 5 year sentence, Former Columbus investment manager Steven P. Moore indicted on theft charges, SEBI confirms ban for Hong Kong hedge fund, SEC announces enforcement action against compliance officer[more]

    Ex-hedge fund analyst weeps as judge hands down 5 year sentence From Hereisthecity.com: An ex-hedge fund analyst was sentenced to 5 years in prison for his role in insider-trading scheme. The New York Post reports that former hedge fund analyst Matthew Teeple was sentenced Thursday to fiv

  4. Goldman in talks to acquire IndexIQ[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Can Goldman Sachs put ETF investors on a liquid diet? Goldman is in talks to acquire IndexIQ, Reuters has reported. Index IQ is a small exchange-traded-fund firm known mostly for products that replicate hedge fund strategies, called "liquid alternative" ETFs. While IndexIQ has 11

  5. Other Voices: CALPERS dilemma should be a warning to hedge funds wanting institutional investors[more]

    From Ian Hamilton, founder of IDS Group. A quick comment on the CALPERS’ disinvestment from the hedge fund market and the jitters it is causing. Pension Funds should not be sheep and follow CALPERS’ decision as the issues that CALPERS has with hedge fund investments are in many ways unique t