Mon, May 30, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbøl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Performance - Hedge fund ETFs take a battering, Have long-short credit funds delivered?[more]

    Hedge fund ETFs take a battering From ETFStrategy.co.uk: It was a blow for the hedge fund world when Hillary Clinton’s son-in-law Marc Mezvinsky announced he would be closing his Greek-focused fund after it plummeted in value by 90%, just two years after it launched. For passive investor

  2. Ares Capital to buy American Capital in $3.4 billion deal[more]

    From PIOnline.com: Ares Management's business development company Ares Capital Corp. is buying troubled BDC American Capital for $3.43 billion, said a joint news release by the BDCs and another release by Ares Management. Ares Capital Corp.'s assets are expected to grow to about $13.2 billion when t

  3. Launches - Man Group and American Beacon launch new emerging debt fund, Nikko AM launches new Japan equity UCITS fund[more]

    Man Group and American Beacon launch new emerging debt fund American Beacon Advisors, an experienced provider of investment advisory services to institutional and retail markets, launched the American Beacon GLG Total Return Fund today. The Fund became effective May 20. The America

  4. Emerging markets hedge funds perform strongly, but capital base erodes[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Latin American Emerging Markets and Russian hedge funds lead industry gains in the first months of 2016, posting strong performances through April as global and EM equity, commodity and currency markets surged in recent weeks following steep losses to begin the year

  5. Americas - Australian banks sending U.S. hedge funds broke, Ryan Puerto Rico ‘rescue’ bill could be windfall for hedge funds[more]

    Australian banks sending U.S. hedge funds broke From SMH.com.au: US hedge funds are not having the best of years. Profits are hard to find, they're underperforming and the punters are losing patience, withdrawing US$15 billion ($20.8 billion) in the March quarter. They're expected to wit