Sat, Mar 25, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbøl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Hedge fund liquidations in 2016 surpass 2009 levels, new launches decline[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva: Even as the hedge fund industry's total assets exceeded the $3tln milestone last year, hedge fund liquidations increased. So much so that 2016 had the highest number of liquidations since 2008, claims the latest HFR Market Microstructure Report, re

  2. Hedge funds find no joy in macro as returns lag Trump rally[more]

    From Gulfnews.com: In 2017, macro hedge funds were expected to shine. So far? Not so much. It's been a far from impressive first two months for funds that trade around macroeconomic events. Discretionary funds rose just 0.3 per cent through February, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc., while the

  3. Strategies - Billionaire investor Marc Lasry shares how he's playing markets right now, Classic models are failing FX hedge funds desperate for return[more]

    Billionaire investor Marc Lasry shares how he's playing markets right now From CNBC.com: Buy on the prospect of deregulation. Sell on the enactment of deregulation. That's the strategy that billionaire investor Marc Lasry is implementing, according to an interview with CNBC in Las Vegas

  4. Opalesque Exclusive: Aberdeen makes the case for the lower mid-market[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: Aberdeen Asset Management has released a new paper focused on lower mid-market private equity. According to the paper, this segment of the private equity market is gaining popularity with private equity investors that are looking for multiple expansion and less

  5. Hedge funds await outcome of French elections, feel pinch on lower oil prices & weak dollar[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds felt the pinch of lower oil prices and weak U.S. dollar as the Lyxor Hedge Fund Index was marginally down as of the week ending 14 March, Lyxor Asset Management said in its Weekly Briefing. The Lyxor He