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Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbøl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

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