Fri, May 6, 2016
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbøl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing


  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Comment - Unmasking the men behind Zero Hedge, Wall Street's renegade blog[more]

    From Bloomberg.com: Colin Lokey, also known as "Tyler Durden," is breaking the first rule of Fight Club: You do not talk about Fight Club. He’s also breaking the second rule of Fight Club. (See the first rule.) After more than a year writing for the financial website Zero Hedge under the n

  2. Opalesque Exclusive: Hedge fund talent, fees take a hit at the Milken Global Conference[more]

    Bailey McCann, Opalesque New York: It's been a rough year for hedge funds and now, even other managers are panning them. "Frankly, I’m blown away by the lack of talent," was Point 72 CEO Steven Cohen's assessment of trying to find candidates to hire in the investment business at a panel o

  3. Hedge funds fell in April as alternative UCITS surge in Europe[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Hedge funds shed more in April with the Lyxor Hedge Fund Index down 0.9% during the month (-2.8% YTD), but there was some good news with alternative UCITS showing strong inflows in Europe. In its Weekly Briefing, Lyxo

  4. Global hedge funds recover in April on resurging energy commodities[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Global hedge funds recovered in April with the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index gaining +0.41% last month (-1.47% YTD), while the HFRX Market Directional Index gained +5.31% during the same

  5. AIG lost $349m in hedge fund portfolio in Q1[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Large US insurance group AIG lost a net $183m for the first quarter 2016, year-on-year. The group blames the loss on the impact of market volatility on investments, as well as net realised capital losses and restructuring costs. Its hedge fund portfolio made a n