Sat, Apr 29, 2017
A A A
Welcome Guest
Free Trial RSS
Get FREE trial access to our award winning publications
Alternative Market Briefing

2009 outlook (6) – Economist David Karsbol `s `outrageous claims` for currencies, indices and hedge funds

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London. See yesterday’s 2009 outlook (5) here.

“What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm”, said David Karsbøl, chief economist at Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist (Saxo also runs a macro hedge fund and two forex-based hedge funds.)

He and his team believe that 2009 will be just as unpredictable as 2008. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can‘t get much worse,” he said.

They produced ten outrageous predictions as part of a thought exercise and their annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ events.

Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for 2009 (currencies and indices)

1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechani......................

To view our full article Click here

Today's Exclusives Today's Other Voices More Exclusives
Previous Opalesque Exclusives                                  
More Other Voices
Previous Other Voices                                               
Access Alternative Market Briefing

 



  • Top Forwarded
  • Top Tracked
  • Top Searched
  1. Opalesque Exclusive: Ex-Man manager combines sustainable investing with AI/ML[more]

    Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque Geneva for New Managers: Dr. Richard Bateson, quant fund manager and physicist, has recently

  2. Other Voices: "Winner-take-all" dynamics and hedge fund investing[more]

    A growing stream of thinking in microeconomics is the concept of "winner-take-all" dynamics. The idea seems simple. A combination of networking economics and classic economies of scale creates situations where there are just a few dominant firms or economic agents who are able to capture significant

  3. Investing - How Chipotle's comeback attracted big data robots and value investors alike[more]

    From Forbes.com: When William Ackman's ailing hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management bet $1 billion on shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill beginning in July 2016, the stakes couldn't have been higher. Pershing Square was reeling from what would eventually be a near $4 billion loss in drugmaker V

  4. Gondor Capital sees challenges ahead for financial markets as two hedge funds post strong gains in Q1[more]

    Komfie Manalo, Opalesque Asia: Vincent Au, portfolio manager of New York-based hedge fund firm Gondor Capital Management believes that the remaining of the year would be challenging for the financial markets even as his two hedge funds maintain

  5. Service Providers - Colemore launches fee tracking service for limited partners[more]

    Following Colmore's successful launch in January 2017, the firm has announced the launch of FAIR.. FAIR is designed to help private equity investors independently validate fees and incentives charged by underlying managers, saving time and providing an extra level of comfort. There is a glob