Alternative Market Briefing

Opalesque Exclusive: Book review – All I ever wanted to know about commodities

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London: Living in a Material World – the Commodity Connection, by Kevin Morrison, 308 pages, published in June 2008 by John Wiley and Sons Ltd (www.wileyfinance.com). A timely introduction to commodities from a veteran journalist who specialises in the subject.

This is an extremely readable book that takes the readers on a tour around the most important raw materials, from their sources to their uses, passing through their dealings in the financial market. Kevin Morrison, a journalist who has worked for the Financial Times, Reuters and The Sydney Herald Tribune, travelled the world, met with “farmers, miners, oil ministers, financiers, environmentalists, lawyers and policy advisors” and brought together a well researched, fast-paced and informative piece on our “material world”, covering energy, agriculture, climate, metals and finally trading, adding odd anecdotes to information, as well as notes and references.

The book examines some of the factors behind the moves in commodity prices and their link with climate change, the connection between the consumer and the raw materials, the every-day relevance of commodities. It is aimed at investors and consumers.

Energy The first section discusses energy, its economic value and its political importance. The author takes a look at the re-emergence of coal, renewable energies such as wind and solar nuclear power, oil, hydrogen cars, biofuels.

For example, wind and solar might be the best source of energy but cannot be stored; meanwhile, the demand fore uranium (for production of electricity) will increase by 70% by 2030; and Opec production is depleting 5% a year, which means it is short of 1.5 million barrels, daily. I quote: “there are four goals of the so-called ‘second generation’ biofuels, and economics is not one of them”.

He concludes that in order to avoid an environmental catastrophe, significant changes will have to be made at local, regional and national levels, and that the expansion in global coal supplies will divide traditional government allies.

Agriculture The chapter on agriculture examines its increasing connection to energy through the biofuel production, the impact of greater meat consumption on the supply of grains and oil seeds, and the influence of government subsidies.

The author remarks on the greater land space being taken up for biofuel production, and the widespread political an......................

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Hedge Funds at Inflexion Point:

Opalesque Round Table

The whole financial industry has reached an inflexion point, at which all market participants are challenged to identify the new themes and new paradigms that will determine asset management and how to create returns going forward.

The Opalesque South Africa Roundtable discusses the range and consequences of this inflexion point, from a fund manager as well from an investor point of view.

The participants also discussed the particularities of investing in Africa (ex-South Africa). You will hear portfolio managers explaining new ways to construct hedges, new and upcoming products. How do you deal with restricted liquidity, is Africa really uncorrelated?

With 28 pages, this is one of our larger Roundtable scripts, but as with all the other ones, you will find valuable intelligence on each page.

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CME - AUSSIE DOLLAR vs. U.S. Dollar - Weekly graph

Near Term Trend: Neutral Friday’s Close: 7063 (+ 133) UPDATE: Back on Sunday, December 21, the market had just settled on that previous Friday at 6775. As per we stated, “Although, in the large scheme of things, prices remain below the M.A. line (Mean), we still believe the Australian Dollar is headed toward 7350”. Subsequently, as of Friday, December 26, the market closed the week at 7198 (a mere 152 points below our objective). Resistance near the M.A. line(red) posed some challenges (see chart), but as of Friday, the market is still in upward surge mode.