Alternative Market Briefing

Opalesque Exclusive: Sherpa Asset readies to launch equities fund on June 1
Kirsten Bischoff, Opalesque New York: Vancouver-based Sherpa Asset Management will be launching the Sherpa Diversified Returns Fund on June 1st with assets of between $10m - $30m. Portfolio Manager David Guarasci, will be running a strategy combining investments in North American mid-to large-cap equities with a proprietary options-trading strategy which Guarasci has developed utilizing his decade long experience at TD Securities where he was Global Head of Currency Spot and Options Trading.

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Performance: GLS`s EM, macro and MENA hedge funds make a dramatic recovery in April due to GCC markets, Last year`s biggest losers rebound in Q1, Fortress posts surprise loss of $69m for Q1, Energy sector funds lead hedge fund rally in April, In currency market`s `trader`s dream`, hedge funds gained in Q1 2008, John W. Henry & Co`s fund rose 14%, Investors stand by 130/30 funds despite negative returns

Opalesque Exclusive: GLS`s EM, macro and MENA hedge funds make a dramatic recovery in April due to GCC markets
GLS’ suite of funds (Global long/short, GEM and MENA focused hedge funds) posted impressive results in April due to their rapid deployment of capital in the GCC in the first few days of the month. GLS feels that the intensive research and commitment to the Gulf markets that it has made since 2006, when the region first opened to foreign investment, is starting to pay material dividends.

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Yesterday's and previous Exclusives

Technical Research

S&P500
Oil
Gold
US10Yr
Nikkei
€vs.$
Wheat
AUS$ vs US$

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CME - S&P 500 INDEX (June) – Daily

Near Term Trend: Positive Wednesday’s Close: 1395.30 (- 25.40) UPDATE: For the last four weeks we have called attention to the fact the market was gaining support and the maturity (at least 15 trading days) of the positive sloping moving average line, which meant the “crowd” was concertedly getting long the U.S. equity market. In addition, the market found support above the M.A. line last Thursday, and traded to its highest point, on Friday, since January 14. In Monday’s commentary, we clearly stated, “Key support, on the basis of a daily settlement, stands at 1370.80. Price action above that pivot keeps the bullish moment intact”. Also, we stated, “Keep a close watch on Crude Oil. The rally during the last two trading sessions may place pressure on Stocks. As of Wednesday, the upside move in Crude was starting to take its toll (add pressure) on Equities.

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NYMEX - CRUDE OIL - (Weekly)

Intermediate Term Trend: Positive Wednesday’s Close: $123.53 (+ 1.69) UPDATE: As we stated over the weekend, “Last Friday’s rally of nearly $4.00 higher means buyers remain in force”. Subsequently, the price of Crude Oil is $12.00 in less than a week, and posted another new historical high on Wednesday. In our last report, we pointed to the gap, and the fact a weekly settlement below $106.60, would signal a confirmed top, but not before. Due to the position of the market being nearly $20.00 above that level, we have to adjust the downside pivot to a level closer to the current price. Therefore, I would focus on the $114.40 region as a threshold where the market could define a top, should a weekly settlement (Friday close), be posted under that point.

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NYMEX - GOLD (June) – Daily

Near Term Trend: Negative Wednesday’s Close: $871.20 (+$6.50) UPDATE: Since posting the historical high of $1021.00 on March 17, the market sold off to $846.50 (down $165.00), posting that low last week. Subsequently, based on that deep correction, over the weekend, we stated, “At this juncture, on a near term basis, the market is somewhat oversold, based on current price being $50.00 below the position of the Moving Average line. A bounce toward $885.00 - $890.00 is possible”. As of Tuesday’s high ($884.450), the market was within 50 cents of the low end of our objective.

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CBT - U.S. Ten Year Note (June) - Daily

Near Term Trend: Negative Wednesday’s Close: 115’035 (+ 8.0) Yield: 3.85% UPDATE: We remain short since Thursday, March 18th. Since the high was posted on March 20, the market has traded over five full points lower, and in doing so, yields jumped nearly 60 basis points. The market has clearly broken below the daily up- trend line which dates back to October, 2007, and even returned to the line and failed once again last week. Over a week ago, we cited, “The key near term support region lies just underneath at 115’00- 114’00”. Currently, the market if finding support in this region.

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CME- NIKKEI – (Cash) Weekly

Intermediate Term Trend (3 Month): Positive Wednesday’s Close: 13,960 UPDATE: We have been recommending being long the Index since March, 17. Since that time, the market has rallied over 2,200 points. The intermediate- term trend has shifted positive, however, in our last report, we stated, “Regardless, please take note: The rally in price has crossed a negative sloping M.A. line. This is a warning flag - the rally could become exhausted”.We also pointed to the fact the rally in Crude could add downward pressure to stocks. As of this week,thus far, the market is under some pressure.

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CME- EURO vs. U.S. DOLLAR (CASH) - Weekly

Intermediate Trend (3 months): Positive to Neutral Wednesday’s Close: 153’71 (- 129) UPDATE: We basically called the high in the Euro just days before the Key Downside Weekly Reversal was formed. Since that time, the market has sold off 700 points, and the spread between price and the M.A. line narrowed to 300 points by Friday. The Euro found some support on Monday, but at this juncture, still remains vulnerable.

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CBT– WHEAT (July) - Daily

Near Term Trend: Negative Wednesday’s Close: $8.07 1/2 (- 10 1/2 cents) UPDATE: In light of the market losing nearly 35% of its value, and the slope of the 21-day moving average line remaining negative, two weeks ago, we stated, “The gap in January, from $8.06 to $8.28 -the market may be headed toward that region. If it remains open, or is closed by a slim margin, a buying opportunity could be at hand”. Last Wednesday, the market traded as low as $7.98, and therefore closed the gap. At that time we asked the question; “Buyers, are you there?” Four days later, the market is attempting to find support, however, the intraday high on Tuesday met resistance at the M.A. line.

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CME – AUSSIE DOLLAR vs. U.S. Dollar - Weekly

Near Term Trend: Positive Wednesday’s Close: 9386 (- 65)UPDATE: Since the end of March 2006, the Aussie Dollar has been trending steadily higher against the U.S. Dollar. In light of this, there was a period of time during July - August 2007, and November - December 2007 when the Aussie Dollar depreciated in value, but quickly recovered to a point where, currently, the market remains within 100 points of historical highs. There are two factors to consider at this point- One, we may be looking at a possible double top formed during the last eleven weeks. Two, a weekly settlement above 9380 may be required to avoid a near-term stall.

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As a hedge fund specialty firm, LJH meets the unique investment requirements of wealthy individuals and families, their advisors, and institutions. The firm's vision focuses on helping investors benefit from tailored hedge fund portfolios that capture the opportunities presented by dynamic market conditions. Creating what rapidly has become a leading global hedge fund advisory firm required a commitment to diversification, capital preservation, and strong risk management capabilities. LJH's mission has been to provide access to top hedge fund managers who are subject to rigorous due diligence by LJH hedge fund research analysts. » Full Portrait

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A Square - Alternative Alternatives

PIPEs: PIPE Opportunities in China

Faculty Geography is still a challenge with China but it is mitigated in part because the companies trade in the US.

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Derivative Pricing: Replicating the market-to-market price of all derivative instruments

Faculty The aim is to achieve transparency in derivatives real time pricing

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Wine Investing: Wine investing for institutional investors

Faculty Traversing the "headline risk" hurdle ...

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Real Estate/Infrastructure: A Real Estate and Infrastructure Advisory

Focuses on managing and identifying investment opportunities in India

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A SQUARE Faculty

Thomas Adams Q & A

Faculty Thomas C. Adams shares his insights on returns that can be expected, different investment structures and the changes investing in timber has seen

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Event Calendar

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2008 CFA Institute Annual Conference, Vancouver, Canada » Sun, 11 May 2008

Now in its 61st year, the CFA Institute Annual Conference provides an unparalleled look at the trends and investment issues critical to success in today’s global marketplace...

Investing in ETFs, London » Mon, 12 May 2008

Financial News’ Investing in ETFs conference will address key issues that investors are looking at when getting involved in this sector including:
- why is it worth to invest in ETFs
- what are the latest trends within the ETFs sector
- how to incorporate ETF in the investment portfolio
- what are the advanced management strategies for that instrument...

TradeTech Derivatives, New York » Mon, 12 May 2008

Increase Derivative Trading Profits In An Uncertain Environment

Face it: Market conditions aren’t changing any time soon...

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